NBA Starting Five: Friday, March 25th
The Starting 5 series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at our Ceiling and Consistency Tool, specifically looking at tonight’s FanDuel salaries .
As the page header states, the Ceiling and Consistency tool shows you how often each player has hit their value based on that day’s salary. The percentage columns (%3x, %4x, etc) show the percentage of the time that particular player has hit that value multiplier. For example, if a player has a salary of $5,000, the %3x column will show the percentage of games in which he has scored at least 15 fantasy points ($5,000 divided by 1000, then multiplied by 3).
Personally, I enjoy using the tool to help identify underpriced players. Many new DFS NBA players fall into the trap of using the same players on all or most sites they play on, regardless of price. Perhaps as much as any DFS sport, a player’s price is supremely important for the NBA, and the Ceiling and Consistency tool lets us easily visualize that, seeing how that player has done historically given his price.
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
In the 18 games that Chris Bosh has missed while dealing his blood clot issues, Dragic’s role in the offense has dramatically increased. He’s averaged 33.82 FanDuel points in just over 34 minutes per game in that time. Over the last 3 weeks, no point guard has hit 5x his salary at a higher rate than Dragic (sans Jordan Farmar):
Tonight he gets to face the Magic in a game with a 210 total – surprisingly high for a Heat game. They’re expected to score 109 points – almost 10 more than their season average. The Magic are below average at defending opposing point guards, and in their one earlier meeting on December 26th, Dragic put up 34.2 FD points on them in 35 minutes. I expect him to be a little under-owned due to the big slate, the potential value options, and his 9.2 point dud last time out (in San Antonio, to be fair). Regardless, he makes for a nice, safe option in the mid-range for cash games, and a decent tournament play due to the low ownership too.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
We get the matchup of two awful shooting guard defenses (and just bad defenses in general) in Sacramento tonight. Just take a look at the DvP Cheat Sheet for fantasy points allowed to opposing shooting guards for the season:
Now take a look at how Devin Booker has performed over the last 3 weeks:
I was a little concerned about how the return of Brandon Knight would affect Booker’s time, but it’s clear the Suns realize what they have in Booker – a smart player who makes good basketball decisions (especially for a 19 year old), and knows how to score. He’ll be able to do plenty of scoring tonight in this matchup. The Suns have played the Kings twice thus far – in the first matchup in November, Booker wasn’t yet a regular part of the rotation and only played 6 minutes. In the second, he played 41 minutes and put up 33.7 FD points. The price is more than fair at $6,500 and even as a road underdog, the Suns have an implied total of 106.5. He makes for a decent tournament fade due to the number of other options and his potentially high ownership, but for cash games he’s an excellent play, and I wouldn’t even mind pairing him up with Brandon Knight and locking in all the backcourt usage in the second-highest total game on the slate.
Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
Small Forward is by far the ugliest position on FanDuel tonight. Just take a look at the top options – Giannis Antetokounmpo on the road in Atlanta as an 8.5 point underdog at a $9,900 price? He’ll probably be the top overall scorer, but will he pay off that price? Probably not. Nicolas Batum on the road in Detroit at $7,700? No thanks. Rudy Gay at home against Phoenix in an uptempo game? Sure, but he hasn’t been above 24.8 FD points in any of his last 5 games, and DeMarcus Cousins is back tonight, further limiting his opportunities.
Wiggins is the lone exception in the mid-to-upper tier of SF’s. He’s been playing great recently – just check out the last 3 weeks:
This matchup isn’t ideal, but the Wizards are below average at defending SF’s, the game has a high total at 217 and should be played at a pretty quick pace. Wiggins will get his shots – he’s had at least 12 attempts in 9 straight games (a time during which he’s averaged 16.2 per game), and while his lack of peripheral stats is always discouraging, he has a pretty high floor for this price, and that’s well worth paying $6,900 for at Small Forward tonight on FD.
Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy. This game is going to be very interesting. The Spurs have already ruled Patty Mills, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, AND Boris Diaw out tonight. That means they’ll be missing 97.7 minutes, 43.2 points, 15.9 rebounds, and 9.4 assists from their usual lineups. The game has by far the lowest total of the night at 192 points (the next closest is the MIL/ATL game at 203.5), and the Spurs are favored by 13 at home, putting this matchup squarely in potential blowout territory. That being said, Aldridge has performing great recently, and he’s really stepped it up in the second half of the year. Here are the last 3 weeks for Power Forwards:
The Grizzlies aren’t really a team we look to target players against, but they’re certainly not the juggernaut they were when Marc Gasol was patrolling the paint, and Aldridge shouldn’t have much trouble against the likes of Zach Randolph JaMychal Green. With all the production missing from the Spurs lineup, you would think they’ll lean on Aldridge heavily in this one, and he has a pretty high floor as a result. Outside of their blowout of Miami in the last game, Aldridge had put up at least 27.4 FD points in 15 straight games, and it’s reasonable to expect at least that again tonight. The price is still fair at $7,600, and he makes for a good cash game play and a decent tournament play. Note that if you’re really concerned about the potential blowout here (or just don’t trust Coach Popovich given that he’s already ruled out 4 guys), Paul Millsap at just $100 more presents a similar floor and upside at home against the Bucks. Here’s to hoping Pop doesn’t do anything crazy and he lets Aldridge get his normal minutes.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
Hopefully you’ve been able to save enough elsewhere, because I think it’s a great night to pay up for Boogie. The early reports are that he’s probable for tonight, and I expect him to be good to go without any restrictions (though be sure to check the RG news feeds and app before lock to confirm his status). Let’s take a look at the Ceiling and Consistency Tool to see how he’s done over the past 3 weeks:
There’s arguably been no one that presents a higher floor at Center (even at the elevated price). He’s been at 43.1 or more FD points in 16 of his last 17 games, and he’s averaged 3.3 more FD points at home than on the road. Normally I’d be a little concerned with the Suns’ frontcourt defense thanks to Tyson Chandler, but he’s already been ruled out with back spasms, and Alex Len doesn’t scare me at all. Frankly I think he picks up a couple quick fouls and the Suns are in big trouble then. They ran out an undersized frontcourt tandem of Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic for large portions of the game against the Lakers on Wednesday, and if that happens tonight, Boogie will go OFF. The price isn’t great at $11,000, but I think he’ll be the top scoring center tonight by far. Roster him, hope that Len gets in foul trouble, and then enjoy the show.
Good luck tonight, Grinders!