NBA Tool Analysis: Team Stats
Hello, Grinders!
There are fast-paced teams, and there are slow-paced teams. There are teams that play good defense, and there are the Sixers. I apologize if there are any Sixers fans reading this, but man are they bad. Regardless, all of those factors can be related to fantasy points in some way.
The Team Stats tool provides a nice way to see how an NBA team is producing (or not producing) in terms of fantasy points. The two filters that I’ll be taking a look at today are fantasy points earned and fantasy points allowed. I’ll show the top and bottom 5 from both categories.
First up are the top five teams based on fantasy points earned. The Warriors are off to an amazing 19-2 start, so it’s no surprise to see them claim the top spot by nearly four fantasy points. They have arguably the two best shooters on the planet and a do-it-all forward in Draymond Green. Combine that with their pace of play and you’ve got a perfect recipe for fantasy goodness. I wouldn’t shy away from using multiple players from the Warriors in my lineups on any given night.
I knew that the Mavericks have been playing at a faster pace this season, but I was a little surprised to seem them ranking in the number two spot at 211.39 FPTS/GM. They don’t have that one stud that can go off for 60 fantasy points like the other teams in the top five, but they have a solid team that fills up the stat sheet. The Mavericks are a safe team to target for some of your cash game lineups, or GPPs on a shorter slate.
The Celtics have been playing at a frantic pace this season and it shows by their 207.81 FPTS/GM. Rajon Rondo is always capable of putting up a triple-double and he is currently priced down on several sites across the industry. He is certainly in play in any format at this point in the season.
Next up are the bottom five teams in the earned fantasy points category. There are multiple factors as to why teams are on this list. Injuries, slow pace, lack of elite players and schedule are just a few things that could attribute to this ranking.
The Knicks are clearly struggling with the triangle offense, as Dennis Rodman recently stated. You know it’s bad when Rodman is calling you out. On top of their struggles with the triangle, Melo is battling a knee injury and is playing like a shell of his old self. I would shy away from using multiple Knicks on any given night, and I would probably only roster a Knick in an elite matchup right now.
The Thunder and Pacers are two teams that I don’t expect to be on this list for much more of the season. They both have been ravished by injuries and are just now getting back to full strength….almost. I still don’t like rostering players from these teams on full slate nights, but that will soon change. Fire up Westbrook, Durant, Hibbert and George Hill with regularity in the near future.
Now we move on to the teams that are giving up the most points. These are teams that you want to target when considering DFS options. Not just one player either – feel free to target two or three if the price is right.
It’s hard to believe that an NBA team can be as bad as the Sixers, but it’s true. They won 19 games last season and are on pace for 8 wins this season. EIGHT!!! Hopefully all of these top draft picks will start to pay off, but I’m just not seeing it. They are allowing a league worst 209.98 FPTS/GM and they can be targeted heavily when they are on the slate.
The Lakers are just behind Philly at 208.75 FPTS/GM allowed. Kobe was an elite defender in his prime, but 20 years in the league will severely deplete your defensive skills. Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer were recently moved to the second unit, so this number might improve slightly, but it’s doubtful. For me it just means that I might target a high-usage second unit player on the opposing team. When is Gerald Green coming to town?
Now, there is one team that made both the top five earned and the top five allowed. That would be the Boston Celtics, ladies and gents. Like I mentioned above, the Celtics are playing at a frantic pace, which is no doubt leaving them gassed on the defensive end. Targeting Celtics games is proving to be a profitable approach so far this season. Rondo and Sullinger are almost always solid plays, and so is pretty much anyone facing them.
Last but not least, we have the top five teams in fantasy points allowed. It’s common knowledge that you shouldn’t target players versus the Grizzlies, but this is statistical proof staring you right in the face. Targeting players against the Grizzlies is –EV and it should only be done when going contrarian in a GPP, or if there is an extreme value play on the opposing team.
The Wizards are really good, but it was a bit surprising to see them on this list, as they are one of the higher scoring teams in the league. So, by default you would assume that their opponents would score a decent amount of fantasy points just on supply alone. This just shows me that the Wizards are going to be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time, as John Wall is evolving into an MVP candidate.
Last season the Rockets would have been on the other end of this list, but not this year. We are now far enough into the season for it to show that they have clearly figured it out on the defensive end. They are no longer a team to pick on for fantasy points. I can only see this number improving once Jones and Howard return from injury.
I don’t use this tool every day, but I like to check in on it every week or two. Sometimes as DFS players we can get stuck on one thought process regarding this team or that team. The NBA season is a long season full of ever-changing trends. Injuries, trades and changing lineups all factor into fantasy point production. It’s always good as a player to take a step back and re-evaluate those changing trends in the league.
Hopefully this information helps you going forward with your NBA roster construction. Have a great weekend and check back next week as I highlight another free RG research tool.
As always feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on twitter, @Socky21.