NBA Tool Analysis: Trending Stats Watch
Hello Grinders!
Today we are going to take a look at the Trending Stats Watch tool. This is a great resource for identifying which value players are getting minutes and how well they are performing with that extra playing time.
First we are going to look at who has seen an increase in minutes over the last week. There are many reasons players could get an uptick in minutes: injuries, trades and new rotations stand out as the main factors, and the below list has a good mix of all of them.
Joel Freeland, Cole Aldrich and Greg Smith are all guys who have seen their role increase due to injuries. They have all played three or more games over the last week, so they can be on your radar until the normal starters return to action. Shabazz Muhammad has recently been put into the starting lineup and he is taking full advantage of it. He is averaging over 33 minutes a game now, which is up from his seasonal average of 22. Jonas Jerebko appears to be benefiting from the release of Josh Smith. He is now seeing an additional 10 minutes per game and appears to be playing his way into Stan Van Gundy’s heart.
On the opposite end of the list are players who have seen their production take a hit due to injuries, changing rotations or trades.
Donald Sloan was everyone’s favorite value play to start the season. He certainly helped me win some money. Times have changed for the NBA journeyman though, as everyone except Paul George has returned for the Pacers. He has been relegated to mop-up duty and nothing else, so he can be safely avoided in all game formats. The same can be said for Garrett Temple. Everyone on the Wizards is healthy again, meaning Temple is no longer in the rotation.
The other list that I like to use in correlation with minutes is fantasy points per game trends.
Kevin Durant is at the top of the list only because his first game back from injury was his 63-fantasy-point outing. His numbers will normalize after several more games. Aldrich is the player who is making the most of his increase in minutes. With the 13 extra minutes per game, he is averaging an additional 16.81 fantasy points for a total of 31.25 fantasy points per game. He is almost a must play until his price normalizes.
One other player that seems to be taking full advantage of the Josh Smith release is Andre Drummond. Most of those extra shots have started to go Drummond’s way and he is also staying out of foul trouble. This has all lead to an increase of 11.57 fantasy points per game over the last week. Drummond is now the lead dog on this team and I can only see this trend continuing.
Lastly we get to look at the players who are not performing well in the fantasy point category. The obvious players will be Temple and Sloan due to their lack of minutes. There are two big name players to take note of though. The first is Michael Carter-Williams. He has been a fantasy point golden boy since he entered the league last year, but he has been on the decline over the last few weeks. This is most likely due to Tony Wroten and Nerlens Noel being heavily involved in game plans now. His fantasy point production has dropped 11.15 points per game over the last week. The other player of note is Al Jefferson. He has been hampered by a groin injury that will now have him out for several weeks. He tried to play through it but he clearly wasn’t the same, as shown by his 10.47 dip in fantasy point production. Then there’s Deron Williams, who has lost his starting job to Jarrett Jack.
Those are a few ways to identify which value plays to roster and which high-priced players to avoid.
Hopefully this information will help you with your roster construction and profitability. Have a great weekend and check back next week as I highlight another free RG research tool.
As always, feel free to leave a comment or reach out to me on twitter, @Socky21.