Patriots vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Patriots vs. Cardinals Odds
| Patriots Odds | -2.5 |
| Cardinals Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Mon, Dec. 12 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 14 of the NFL schedule will conclude on Monday Night Football, with a battle between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals. Entering play, New England is in last place in the AFC East division standings, but they remain only a half-game behind the Los Angeles Chargers for the final Wild Card position in the conference. Arizona has lost six of their last eight games and is on the verge of being mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams in prime time, pricing the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New England Patriots
New England is dealing with a number of injuries on the offensive side of the ball entering this matchup. Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers and offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn have both been ruled out for this contest, and running back Damien Harris appears to be heading in the same direction after being listed as doubtful on the final injury report. Meyers leads all non-running backs on the Patriots in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2022. Wynn has been poor in pass protection this year, but he has made a positive impact in the running game, which could struggle tonight with Conor McDermott stepping in at right tackle for the second consecutive week. In Week 13 against the Buffalo Bills, McDermott allowed a quarterback hit, two quarterback pressures, and was mostly ineffective as a run-blocker. Since Harris last handled a full workload on the ground in Week 8, New England ranks 30th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. Expect this group to struggle to put points on the board once again in this spot.
Defensively, the Patriots have started to regress slightly from their midseason excellence. Across the last two weeks, New England has allowed 57 points. Overall, this unit ranks 25th in defensive EPA/play in that span, having struggled to find answers for Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen. Still, New England has been tough against the run in their last two losses – holding Dalvin Cook to 42 rushing yards on 22 carries and only allowing 3.6 yards-per-carry to the combination of James Cook, Devin Singletary, Josh Allen, and Nyheim Hines in Week 13.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and company are looking at a lost season if they are unable to run the table following their Week 13 bye. If the Cardinals hope to make a miracle run to the postseason, they will need much improved play from their young signal caller, who ranks only 21st in QBR this fall, and has thrown for more than 250 passing yards only once since Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams. Murray’s performance will be particularly important this evening, considering the fact that James Conner is unlikely to find much room to run against a strong New England run defense.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona will have their work cut out for them as well. Through 12 games, the Cardinals rank 19th in opponent passing yards-per-attempt and 23rd in opponent rushing yards-per-carry. Still, facing an injury-depleted New England offense – with the benefit of an extra week to prepare for this offense – Arizona could turn in a better showing than many bettors are anticipating.
Patriots vs. Cardinals – Picks & Predictions
If looking to avoid betting on a side between these two volatile and talent-depleted teams, the under on James Connor’s rushing yards is worthy of consideration in this matchup. Even in games when New England has been victimized on the scoreboard this year, they have done a good job containing their opponent’s ground game. On Monday, the Cardinals are likely to try to exploit the Patriots through the air, which could lead to fewer opportunities for Connor – take the under.
PICK: James Connor under 60.5 rushing yards (-115, MGM)
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