Patriots vs. Vikings Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Patriots vs. Vikings Odds
| Patriots Odds | +2.5 |
| Vikings Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 24 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL nightcap on Thanksgiving will feature the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings in a battle of two ascending teams. Since Week 5, both the Patriots and Vikings are 5-1, which has firmly entrenched both organizations in the playoff picture as the calendar prepares to flip to December. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting a closely-contested affair, pricing Minnesota as 3-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New England Patriots
During New England’s recent six-game hot stretch, they have out-scored their opponents 139-71, with nearly half of their points allowed coming in their lone defeat in that span – losing to the Chicago Bears 33-14 on Monday Night Football. In Week 7 against the Bears, the Patriots had an unusually difficult challenge, with Chicago having 11 days to prepare for the matchup after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. In Week 12, the Vikings will be a short week after losing to the Dallas Cowboys this past Sunday. The primary concern for New England continues to be their offense, which ranks only 29th in EPA/play across their last six contests. In each of their last three wins, Mac Jones has earned the start under center, but he has only a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span, with only one game in which he has eclipsed 200 passing yards. Expect the Patriots to continue to rely on their ground attack in this spot, a recipe that has proven successful during the middle portion of the campaign.
Since Week 5, there is little debate that the Patriots have been the best defensive team in the NFL – the only valid criticism being that this group has faced a number of weak offenses in that stretch. Nevertheless, New England has held their opponent to 17 points or fewer in five of their last six games. In three of those games, the Patriots have held their opponents to three points or less, including a Week 5 shutout of the Detroit Lions. Assuming that Marcus Jones plays on Thursday after logging a limited participation in the final practice of the week, this unit has no notable injuries to report ahead of kickoff as they look to continue their run of excellent play.
Minnesota Vikings
Following a thrilling 33-30 road victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, the Vikings were annihilated by a final score of 40-3 against the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 11. On Thursday, Minnesota is faced with a difficult offensive task, trying to prepare for the league’s hottest defense with only a few days to assemble a gameplan. Despite an impressive 8-2 record, the Vikings rank only 19th in offensive EPA/play so far this season, ranking worse than league average in both Dropback EPA/play and Rush EPA/play. Kirk Cousins ranks only 22nd in QBR and 27th in interceptions among qualified signal callers. An additional concern for the Vikings offense in this spot is the absence of premier left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who has been ruled out with a concussion. Darrisaw’s replacement, Blake Brandel has played only 79 snaps in 2022 and is a major downgrade in terms of talent. If Minnesota is unable to establish an early presence on the ground, it could be difficult for this group to put up points on Thursday.
On top of missing Darrisaw for this contest, the Vikings defense will be without cornerbacks Cameron Dantzler, Andrew Booth Jr., and Akayleb Evans. Though Dantzler is the most talented of the group, Booth Jr. played 68 snaps in Week 11 and Evans has played 35-plus snaps in consecutive weeks – meaning that Minnesota will be reaching even further down the depth chart in the secondary unit for this matchup. Similar to their offense, the Vikings’ defense has been rather unspectacular from an advanced metrics perspective through 10 games – ranking 15th in EPA/play, with notable deficiencies in the secondary unit even before taking into account recent injuries. Playing on a short week, it could be difficult to integrate inexperienced players into key roles for this group.
Patriots vs. Vikings – Picks & Predictions
At first glance, it may seem somewhat surprising to see the 8-2 Vikings as only a field goal favorite at home against a Patriots team that has beaten up on a number of weak teams during their recent hot streak. However, if approaching this game from an advanced analytics perspective, bettors will not be confused at the line, considering the fact that Minnesota ranks worse than league average on a number of season-long metrics that have shown a strong historical correlation with winning football games. Furthermore, Minnesota’s injury report is of major concern, especially on a short week. The Patriots are a live dog on Thanksgiving – take them to cover the spread in this one, and do not be surprised if they manage to win this game outright.
PICK: Patriots +3 (-122, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn