New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds
| Patriots Odds | +3.5 |
| Dolphins Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 11 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the New England Patriots will travel to South Beach to take on the new-look Miami Dolphins in an important early season intra-divisional matchup. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two AFC East rivals, pricing Miami as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New England Patriots
During the offseason, the Patriots dealt with a substantial amount of change. Last year’s offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, left to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. The defensive side of the ball lost a wealth of talent, including Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, J.C. Jackson, and Kyle Van Noy. Still Head Coach Bill Belichick has only experienced one losing season since 2021, and figures to have his team ready to play in Week 1.
The bigger question for bettors is – no matter how well-prepared New England is, do they have enough talent to win this game?
Mac Jones is a second-year signal caller, who is learning a completely new offense after the departure of McDaniels. In McDaniels place, the Patriots have been ‘dividing and conquering’ the responsibilities typically associated with the offensive coordinator position between Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Patricia handling the offense is particularly odd, considering that he has specialized as a defensive coach for the greater part of the last decade. On the offensive line, Shaq Mason is gone, but Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown remain, each of whom are elite zone blockers. Expect the Patriots to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible in this contest, considering the lack of elite talent in the passing game.
Defensively, it seems as though Belichick is always able to throw unique looks at opposing quarterbacks. However, Belichick can only prepare his team so much – at the end of the day, there is elite speed at receiver for the Dolphins that could create an abundance of problems for a secondary unit that features a lack of elite talent at cornerback. Man-to-man situations could open the door for costly defensive breakdowns against this offense. The secondary could be put in particularly difficult situations if the defensive line is unable to slow down the run game. None of Josh Uche, Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, or Matthew Judon grade as elite run defenders. It could be a frustrating day for this unit.
Miami Dolphins
The 5th overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa has not lived up to expectations in his first two years as a professional. In 2021, He continued to struggle mightily throwing the ball more than 10 yards down-the-field, with only six touchdowns and eight interceptions on such throws. Still, it is possible that not all of his underwhelming numbers in his first two seasons are solely his fault.
Many fans and pundits have claimed that Tagovailoa has simply not been in a system that has properly utilized his skill set. This fall, new head coach, Mike McDaniel will kill those arguments. McDaniel received an academic scholarship at Yale, and has been widely respected in NFL circles in various roles in previous seasons. He ranks in the 99th percentile in football IQ and figures to do everything in his power to put Tagovailoa in positions to succeed. Considering the elite speed that Tagovailoa has at receiver in 2022, there are no excuses for his shortcomings any longer.
In Week 1, the young signal-caller has a great matchup against a poor New England secondary unit, which should enable him to get off to a strong start. The Dolphins offensive line should be able to win the line of scrimmage consistently to create room in the running game as well, making it likely that Miami’s offense has an all-around productive day at the office.
Defensively, the Dolphins ranked 7th in sacks per pass attempt last year, according to NFL GSIS and 18th in rush yards allowed per play. Heading into 2022, Melvin Ingram III, Christian Wilkins, and Zach Sieler form, arguably, the most talented threesome on any defensive line in the league. Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker present some concerns at linebacker, but this group nonetheless has more than enough talent to get into the opposing backfield on a regular basis.
The secondary has elite upside as well, with Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland each finishing as a top-five option at their respective positions in 2021, per Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Nik Needham is an underrated asset who can neutralize opposing slot weapons, such as Jakobi Meyers. Mac Jones and company could have persistent difficulties against this unit.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks & Predictions
Miami has the better defense by a landslide in this matchup, not to mention the excitement of a new mastermind head coach paired with “(player-popup #tyreek-hill)Tyreek Hill”:/players/tyreek-hill-35616’s Dolphins’ debut. The offensive line, equipped with a new running scheme, should be much improved from 2021, which could give this offense a healthy run-pass balance in Week 1 and beyond. The plethora of offseason coaching changes, in addition to the loss of a number of key 2021 contributors is likely to cause pain points for New England early in the campaign. Miami should find a way to get a win in this spot. In a divisional battle, bettors should consider buying a half-point at sportsbooks to create push potential on a game decided by a field goal – take the Dolphins in this spot.
PICK: Dolphins -3 (-120) via BetMGM
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