Saints vs. Eagles Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Saints vs. Eagles Odds
| Saints Odds | +6.5 |
| Eagles Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 42.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
This weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles have an opportunity to clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs when they host the New Orleans Saints at Lincoln Financial Field. Entering play, Philadelphia holds a one-game lead, in addition to owning the tiebreaker, over the Minnesota Vikings for the best record in the conference. New Orleans trails the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by one game for first place in a crowded NFC South division with two games remaining in the regular season. Oddsmakers are expecting the Eagles to end the Saints’ playoff hopes, pricing Philadelphia as 6.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New Orleans Saints
Dalton doing okay
Since naming Andy Dalton the starting quarterback in Week 4, New Orleans ranks 15th in offensive EPA overall, 9th in dropback EPA, and 25th in rush EPA. Facing a Philadelphia defense that leads the NFL in sacks per pass attempt through their first 15 games, Dalton will be pressured frequently on Sunday, but it is unlikely to sink this unit entirely, considering Dalton’s ability to perform adequately under duress. In 2022, Dalton has a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure compared to a 12-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio when kept clean.
The struggles on the ground are primarily attributable to an offensive line that ranks 25th in run-blocking grade this fall, per Pro Football Focus. These issues on the ground and in protection could be even more pronounced in Week 17 if Andrus Peat or Ryan Ramczyk end up on the sidelines.
Dinged-up defense
Since pitching a 24-0 shutout against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 8, the Saints rank 17th in defensive EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 28th in rush EPA. This weekend, New Orleans will face a tough test against one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, and the challenge will only become more difficult if they are missing a number of key players on this side of the ball. On Thursday’s injury report, safety Justin Evans, cornerback Marshon Lattimore, safety Marcus Maye, and linebacker Pete Werner were each limited or failed to practice entirely.
Key injury news
Bettors will need to pay attention to the status of both Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk on the final injury report.
If Peat is unable to suit-up, it will likely force Lewis Kidd into action, who has allowed three quarterback pressures and a sack on only 40 pass-blocking snaps this year as an undrafted rookie out of Montana State.
Ramczyk has not allowed a quarterback pressure, hurry, hit, or a sack in his last 109 pass-blocking snaps at right tackle. His backup, Landon Young has played only 94 offensive snaps this year, and has proven woefully inadequate for the job – allowing five quarterback pressures and two sacks in only 48 pass-blocking snaps.
Philadelphia Eagles
Marvelous Minshew
Per Next Gen Stats, Gardner Minshew completed 11-of-16 pass attempts over 10 air yards for 235 passing yards and a touchdown in last week’s 40-34 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The biggest takeaway from this statistic is that the coaching staff clearly trusts Minshew to operate the vast majority of the playbook, rather than relegating him to mostly underneath routes. Minshew also proved capable of performing under duress, throwing a touchdown and committing no turnovers on 20 dropbacks when facing pressure. Against the blitz, he was a perfect 8-for-8 for 96 yards and a touchdown, per Pro Football Focus. Though Jalen Hurts will be missed, this offense is far from broken with him on the sidelines.
Defense
Across their last five games, the Eagles rank 12th in defensive EPA overall, 20th in dropback EPA, and 5th in rush EPA. Last week, Philadelphia struggled mightily to slow Dak Prescott and company, surrendering 25 first downs, 419 yards of total offense, and allowing Dallas to go 8-for-15 on third-down. Fortunately, this unit has a perfect get-right spot this Sunday against a New Orleans offensive line that has massive holes at both guard spots. Despite their recent struggles on this side of the ball, Philadelphia is not in as bad of a spot as it may seem – expect positive regression to the mean this weekend.
Key Injury News
Premier left tackle Lane Johnson did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, making it likely that he will be on the sidelines this weekend if he is unable to practice in any capacity on Friday. His backup, Jack Driscoll, is a major downgrade in talent at a key position on the offensive line. On 10 pass-blocking snaps in relief of Johnson in Week 16, Driscoll allowed one quarterback pressure and one quarterback hurry. Prior to leaving the game, Johnson had allowed zero pressures or hurries on 32 pass-blocking snaps.
Slot cornerback Avonte Maddox has failed to log any practice time this week either, due to a toe injury. In 2022, Maddox has been one of the better slot defenders in the entire NFL, ranking 32nd among all cornerbacks in coverage grade. If Maddox is unable to suit-up, Josiah Scott is likely to assume the majority of the responsibilities that Maddox typically handles. Scott is a significant downgrade from Maddox, both in coverage and as a run defender.
Saints vs. Eagles – Picks & Predictions
Betting on this contest before seeing final injury reports comes with an inordinate amount of risk. However, bettors who are trying to get ahead on the market are advised to take a stab at the under in this spot – potentially buying two points to get push potential on the key number of 44. Though Minshew will be trusted with running the majority of the playbook, the potential absence of Lane Johnson could cause inefficiencies that this offense has not had to deal with in 2022. If New Orleans is missing multiple starting offensive linemen, it could be extremely difficult to move the football. Take the under here or wait for final injury news this weekend.
PICK: Under 44 (-150, MGM)
Image Credit: Imagn