Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-12-05 21:27:56

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds

This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two NFC South foes, pricing the Buccaneers as 3-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

New Orleans Saints

Since Andy Dalton was named the starting quarterback for New Orleans, the Saints have only three wins in nine games. During that stretch of action, New Orleans ranks 15th in offensive EPA/play, but an inability to generate consistent success on the ground has limited the ceiling of this group. A significant portion of the struggles in the run game can be attributed to the offensive line, which has struggled tremendously outside of Ryan Ramczyk at right tackle. Per Pro Football Focus, the Saints’ offensive line ranks 28th in run-blocking as a unit this fall.

New Orleans has also underperformed expectations, by a wide margin, on the defensive side of the ball through 12 games. Entering play, the Saints have been reasonably effective against opposing passing attacks, but they rank 18th in opponent yards-per-carry in 2022. Tonight, the secondary unit could also be missing some key pieces, with cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Bradley Roby listed as questionable, in addition to cornerback P.J. Williams having already been ruled out. Defensive tackle Kentavius Street is also listed as questionable for this evening after not participating in practice this week due to an illness. Street has played at least 30 snaps in each of the team’s last four games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Per Greg Auman, Tampa Bay’s offense has played 158 snaps on third-down this fall, which is the second-most in the NFL. Adding to the offensive inefficiency is the fact that this group ranks only 23rd in third-down conversion rate in 2022. Though Tom Brady continues to perform exceptionally well at age-45, there are more than a few issues that continue to plague this unit. A continued issue for the Buccaneers’ offensive line is the underwhelming play of Donovan Smith at left tackle. In 2021, Smith was one of the better blind-side-protectors in football, but he ranks only 46th out of 75 tackles in pass-block grade this fall, and he is dead-last, 77th as a run-blocker. Last week against the Cleveland Browns, Smith was thoroughly overmatched by Myles Garrett nearly all afternoon. Penalties have also been an issue for the veteran offensive lineman, who has been flagged seven times in his last five games. Life will not get any easier for Smith in Week 13, with Marcus Davenport lining-up across from him.

Defensively, the Buccaneers could be in bad shape for Monday Night Football, with a laundry list of injuries to report. Defensive tackles Akiem Hicks and Vita Vea are both listed as questionable. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, and safeties Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield Jr. are each listed as doubtful. If there is any good news, it is that safety Logan Ryan has been activated from injured reserve and is eligible to play tonight. Still, this unit could be without a number of key contributors in Week 13, depending on how the final inactive report shakes out.

Saints vs. Buccaneers – Picks & Predictions

Bettors should be extremely careful about over-investing in this contest before seeing the final inactive reports. However, it seems increasingly likely that both the Saints and Buccaneers will be without a number of key pieces on the defensive side of the ball this evening. Despite Tampa Bay’s continued offensive struggles, they should be able to exploit certain areas of the field at will if both Lattimore and Roby end up on the sidelines. New Orleans could have plenty of opportunities to take shots deep down-the-field with the lack of healthy bodies that Tampa Bay has at safety. Again, monitor the injury reports ahead of kickoff, but the over could be worth a look in this spot.

PICK: Over 41 (-107, PointsBet)

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