NFL Best Ball Theory: Every Pick is Sacred
“Free” is a Four-Letter Word
Back in late July, Matt Freedman was kind enough to invite me on the FantasyLabs podcast to discuss Best Ball leagues in a roundtable format with Rotoworld’s Evan Silva and RosterCoach’s TJ Hernandez. During the roundtable, the group mentioned the concept of “value” (with respect to players and picks) multiple times. While wrapping up, however, Evan groused about analysts’ widespread usage of “free” related to drafting.
His argument? “Free” doesn’t exist in drafts. There are no “throw-away” picks.
TJ and I felt like we had both been indirectly called out live on air. While Evan wasn’t necessarily pointing his finger at the two of us, his point resonated. TJ and I were guilty.
Goddamn right. He’s free in the 15th+ Round. https://t.co/un2lMK2sCH
— Josh ADHD (@FantasyADHD) July 15, 2017
I’ve used this term (misapplied, rather) to describe events surrounding Best Ball ADP development. I say that I’m misapplying the term because I don’t believe anything is free in Best Ball leagues. I’ve reflected on the matter a bit more and decided to break this concept into three parts.
• Part One: Every Pick is Sacred
• Part Two: Identifying Ripe Opportunities
• Part Three: Timing the Market
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Here, in Part One, we will cover the broad idea that any investment portfolio should be lean and mean. With limited resources to allocate toward our goal (winning), we must measure each one carefully. Over the past few months I’ve used the term “free” when highlighting what I feel are criminally-underrated players at well-below-market draft price. They aren’t free, however. They still require the use of a pick, even if it happens to be a 17th-round pick.
While I may have tweeted “free,” perhaps I should have said, “significant discount relative to their scoring potential.” I’d like to blame 140-character limits, but honestly, it was carelessness on my part.
Every Pick is Sacred
Finishing first is the goal in Best Ball leagues. That’s why we’re playing. While these are fun leagues to play, we don’t play them for fun. Participation ribbons suck. To finish first, we must maximize the amount of total points our roster accrues throughout the 16-week season. If we wish to maximize, we must not waste a single pick. Waste not, want not, etc.
Monty Python sums up this concept rather well.
We should treat each pick as an asset, and invest it with great care if we intend to win Best Ball leagues. Many drafters, however, tend to become sloppy in the final few rounds of drafts. This may be due to a number of factors, such as:
• Shallow knowledge of the player pool
• Restricted access to tools & aids
• Boredom / irritation
• Getting “cute”
In order to win DRAFT Best Ball leagues, you will have to break ADP. The “easiest” place to break ADP is in the last quarter of drafts (Rounds 13-18), where players can significantly outscore their investment-correlated production.
Letting the Numbers Speak
To prove this point, I hurled myself into the data archives from 2016 MyFantasyLeague MFL10s, and found some interesting things.
I filtered every league winner from the data set, and then filtered those teams to the last four rounds of their drafts (17-20, in this case). At each of the primary positions, these are the players drafted most frequently. Consider these players “ADP Breakers” for the most part, as you’ll see what will now look like “no brainers” firmly atop each positional table.
The broad point I want to impress upon you is that even in late rounds, you must seriously consider the potential for each pick to break their ADP and create a league-winner. We shouldn’t look at these picks as surrogates for our high-leverage picks in the event of injury (hand-cuffing), but rather as players who in the right circumstances can destroy their current market valuation. As an investor, you might consider these the “Small Cap” portion of your portfolio. They certainly aren’t penny stocks.
If we focus back on the positional lists above, one idea should jump out at you immediately – wide receiver is the only position littered with “hits.” The other three positions bear little fruit comparatively. Keep this concept in mind with your late selections. Why? Simply put, the wide receiver position offers the highest broad-spectrum upside of the skill positions.
Wrapping Up
In the final rounds of drafts, many players often lose focus and make sloppy picks. We can avoid this if we are better prepared. We can improve our preparedness by understanding depth and tiers at each position, implementing sound roster construction strategy, and recognizing situations that will allow us to break ADP. I’ll cover the last point in Part Two of this series.
Here is a preview of the data we’ll visualize in Part Two:
If you’d like to reference draft data similar to the RotoGrinders Draft Best Ball ADP page, I recommend checking out similar data from MyFantasyLeague MFL10 drafts as a reasonable “go-by” for your upcoming Best Ball drafts.
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