Week 9 Update: BETSiE Forecasts Packers as Super Bowl Champion
Each week, RotoGrinders’ NFL supercomputer BETSiE runs the entire season 100,000 times — simulating every snap to project playoff paths and Super Bowl probabilities.
After Week 9 inputs, BETSiE has shifted the top of the league — and there’s a new No. 1 Super Bowl favorite.
Top Super Bowl Contenders (Week 9)
Green Bay Packers — 12.7% Super Bowl Probability
Projected Record: 11.2–5.9
Playoff Odds: 85.7%
Win Division: 55.6%
Win Conference: 21.5%
The Packers now hold the highest Super Bowl probability in football, gaining separation from the NFC pack. BETSiE continues to love their balance and late-season divisional leverage.
Kansas City Chiefs — 10.8%
Projected Record: 11.1–5.9
Playoff Odds: 83.5%
Win Division: 50.9%
Win Conference: 19.9%
Steady as ever. Mahomes keeps the Missouri powerhouse Kansas City in the top two, and AFC volatility preserves strong title equity.
Indianapolis Colts — 7.8%
Projected Record: 11.5–5.6
Playoff Odds: 91.3% (highest)
Win Division: 70.2%
Win Conference: 16.4%
Indy is the model’s most consistent AFC contender, appearing in the postseason more often than any team and holding top-3 conference equity.
Los Angeles Rams — 7.4%
Projected Record: 11.2–5.8
Playoff Odds: 80.8%
Win Division: 46.3%
The Rams remain a sturdy NFC threat with a high floor and legitimate January upside.
Buffalo Bills — 7.3%
Projected Record: 11–6
Playoff Odds: 78.8%
Win Division: 41.7%
Buffalo dips slightly but keeps a strong ceiling. The AFC East path is tighter, yet the Bills remain firmly in the first tier.
Teams Trending Down
- Baltimore Ravens: 8.4 wins; 2.9% Super Bowl odds.
- Dallas Cowboys: 27.7% playoff odds; 1.4% to win the Super Bowl.
- Cincinnati Bengals: 6.7 wins; 0.2% Super Bowl odds.
At the bottom of the projection board: Jets (0.2% playoffs), Titans (0.3%), and Saints (0.3%) have near-zero postseason equity.
Betting Edge
- Green Bay at 12.7% title probability (~+680 implied) often prices better than market.
- Indianapolis division futures look undervalued given a 70.2% division-win probability.
- Potential fades: teams like Dallas, Baltimore, and Cincinnati if market prices exceed model odds.
Full BETSiE Week 9 Projections
| Team | Wins | Losses | Reach Playoffs | Win Division | Win Conference | Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 11.2 | 5.9 | 85.70% | 55.60% | 21.50% | 12.70% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.1 | 5.9 | 83.50% | 50.90% | 19.90% | 10.80% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11.5 | 5.6 | 91.30% | 70.20% | 16.40% | 7.80% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.2 | 5.8 | 80.80% | 46.30% | 14.30% | 7.40% |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.0 | 6.0 | 78.80% | 41.70% | 14.60% | 7.30% |
| Detroit Lions | 11.1 | 5.9 | 82.20% | 40.10% | 13.70% | 7.10% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.7 | 6.3 | 83.40% | 65.40% | 12.50% | 6.30% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.9 | 7.1 | 68.50% | 27.90% | 10.40% | 5.30% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.6 | 6.4 | 81.10% | 39.30% | 10.50% | 5.10% |
| New England Patriots | 10.8 | 6.2 | 83.00% | 44.70% | 10.90% | 4.90% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.9 | 6.1 | 86.40% | 80.30% | 8.60% | 4.00% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.2 | 6.8 | 64.00% | 25.70% | 6.80% | 3.30% |
| Denver Broncos | 10.4 | 6.6 | 71.10% | 28.20% | 7.40% | 3.10% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.4 | 8.6 | 42.20% | 33.00% | 5.80% | 2.90% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.6 | 7.4 | 60.90% | 26.10% | 5.90% | 2.60% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.1 | 7.9 | 57.60% | 49.10% | 5.70% | 2.50% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.7 | 9.3 | 27.70% | 16.30% | 2.90% | 1.40% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.3 | 8.7 | 30.80% | 10.00% | 2.50% | 1.20% |
| Chicago Bears | 8.7 | 8.3 | 32.10% | 6.40% | 2.50% | 1.20% |
| Houston Texans | 8.1 | 8.9 | 26.30% | 5.90% | 2.10% | 1.00% |
| Washington Commanders | 8.0 | 9.0 | 20.70% | 9.70% | 1.90% | 0.90% |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.7 | 9.3 | 21.50% | 10.20% | 1.10% | 0.40% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.9 | 10.1 | 9.70% | 1.60% | 0.50% | 0.30% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.7 | 10.3 | 11.30% | 8.50% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.2 | 10.8 | 6.20% | 1.90% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| Cleveland Browns | 6.1 | 11.0 | 4.60% | 1.90% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| New York Giants | 5.6 | 11.5 | 4.10% | 1.90% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| Miami Dolphins | 5.3 | 11.7 | 1.10% | 0.70% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| New York Jets | 4.4 | 12.6 | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| Tennessee Titans | 3.5 | 13.5 | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5.4 | 11.6 | 3.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| New Orleans Saints | 4.2 | 12.8 | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
If you want another way to sharpen your bets as game day gets closer, check out our NFL weather analysis, too, as weather is notably difficult to factor in this far out.
While futures-style Best Ball contests at Underdog are now closed, you can participate in the app’s other game formats with the help of the Underdog promo code.
IMAGE CREDIT: IMAGN