NFL Pick'em Pool Week 1 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Tonight, the NFL regular season returns, which means so do pick’em and confidence pool contests!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 8 times in 72 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 1 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 1 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 1 Selections
1. Denver Broncos
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Washington Commanders
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Houston Texans
12. New York Jets
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Buffalo Bills
15. Chicago Bears
16. New England Patriots
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 1
Broncos (vs. Titans)
Will the Titans be a better football team this season? Absolutely. Frankly, it would be difficult to be worse than last season’s version of the team, which went a historically bad 2-15 ATS and won only 3 games. That being said, it’s still a tremendously difficult task for a rookie quarterback to make his first career regular season start on the road, facing a potentially elite defense. Oh, and don’t forget that this game will be played at 5,280 feet of altitude as well.
According to ClevTA, since 2000, the Broncos have won 79% of home games during the first 2 weeks of the season, versus a pregame win expectancy of 63%. Opponents have also gone under their team total in 62% of those games. Did I mention that 12 of the 18 rookie quarterbacks to start Week 1 on the road in the last 25 years have thrown an interception?
Tennessee will be better than people think this season, but they probably won’t be good enough right out of the gate to pull a massive upset in their season opener – especially if LT Dan Moore Jr. isn’t available. He missed practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury.
Cardinals (vs. Saints)
Spencer Rattler is 0-6 as a starter to begin his NFL career. As a rookie last season, Rattler ranked 38th in EPA/play, 37th in success rate, and 30th in pressure-to-sack% among 39 quarterbacks with 250+ plays. Young players are capable of improving their skills from one year to the next, but it would take an exponential jump in production just to get Rattler close to league average.
This isn’t a straight fade of Rattler though. The Cardinals also added a lot of talent this past offseason, including 4 new starters on the defensive side of the ball: DT Calais Campbell, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, EDGE Josh Sweat, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither.
Head coach Kellen Moore and his staff will also be playing their first game together as a coaching staff, competing against an Arizona coaching staff that is entering their 3rd year. The only thing in New Orleans’ favor is home field, but that isn’t likely to be enough to overcome a significant talent gap in Week 1.
Commanders (vs. Giants)
The Commanders were one of the league’s most overachieving teams in the NFL a season ago, in part, due to some good luck. They finished the season as one of the healthiest teams in the league, with the 5th-fewest adjusted games lost to injury. They also faced a league-high 65% of snaps against either backup quarterbacks or quarterbacks who finished 30th or worse in EPA/play, per ClevTA. The Commanders also set a new NFL record, converting an incredulous 87% of their 4th-down attempts, including 7-of-8 times in which they needed 3+ yards.
Though the Commanders might experience negative regression in a lot of the above areas this season, it’s difficult to see that happening right out of the gate against the Giants. The Giants are going to start Russell Wilson in Week 1, who finished last season ranked 25th in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate among 39 quarterbacks with 250+ plays. He could also be without his starting LT Andrew Thomas.
In short, there are reasons to be nervous about the Commanders in this spot, but the Giants are 3-15 SU without Thomas in the lineup across the last 2 years. The Commanders have the better quarterback and will be at home. They should be able to win this game, even if it’s not as easy as pick’em participants would like it to be.
Eagles (vs. Cowboys)
Philadelphia was unquestionably the best team in football last season, pairing an elite defense with a strong running game to make quick work of the majority of their opponents. Dallas, meanwhile, finished only 7-10 SU and lost Dak Prescott to a season-ending injury in Week 9. Dallas will get Prescott back for this matchup, but EDGE Micah Parsons is now in Green Bay, and Dallas has a brand new coaching staff. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer, who prides himself on running the football, is likely to have a difficult time winning this game with a banged-up running back room, an offensive line that has been nursing some nagging injuries, and a defense that is missing their top pass-rusher from a season ago.
Falcons (vs. Buccaneers)
There are not many teams who have an uglier NFL injury report than the Buccaneers heading into Week 1. WR Chris Godwin isn’t expected to play, meaning that 2 of the team’s top 4 receivers from last season’s team will be inactive, with WR Jalen McMillan currently on injured reserve. Starting LT Tristan Wirfs is also expected to be out – a concerning development, especially considering that Baker Mayfield didn’t play in the preseason.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers didn’t have star DT Vita Vea (foot) or starting safety Christian Izien (oblique) at practice on Wednesday. Their 4th-round draft pick, EDGE David Walker, is already on injured reserve as well.
If Vea and Izien aren’t able to go, this is a Buccaneers team that will be severely short on top-tier talent heading into a tough divisional matchup to begin the season.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
- Week 12: 6-7
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 9-4
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 10-6
- Week 17: 10-6
- Week 18: 11-5
Image Credit: Imagn