NFL Pick'em Pool Week 10 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
After nearly a month of unprecedented winning from favorites, we saw a number of notable upsets in Week 9 – including the Packers and Lions both losing as 8.5-point favorites or larger. The Packers losing as a 13.5-point favorite represented the largest upset in multiple years in the NFL.
In Week 11, there appear to be some opportunities for big dogs to bark again, with 2 of the 3 biggest favorites this week playing on the road. The Colts, 6.5-point favorites, are playing overseas this weekend, which could be another potential upset spot.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, three of the five teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list. In Week 6, the Eagles surprisingly ruled out DT Jalen Carter 90 minutes prior to kickoff, and then CB Quinyon Mitchell exited with an injury, playing only 13 snaps, leading to a Philadelphia loss. Our other 5 picks in the top 6 of our confidence rankings all came through!
Week 7 was a good bounce-back week, with 8 of our top 9 confidence selections coming through! In Week 8, we hit each of our top-6 selections and 8 of our top 10 confidence picks overall. We survived Week 9 overall, but 2 of our top-3 selections went down as massive favorites, with the Packers and Lions being upset at home.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 81 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 10 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 10 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 10 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 10 Selections
1. Denver Broncos
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Carolina Panthers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Detroit Lions
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Los Angeles Rams
10. Chicago Bears
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Philadelphia Eagles
13. New York Jets
14. Houston Texans
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 10
Broncos (vs. Raiders)
The Broncos are the largest home favorites on the board in Week 10, hosting the Raiders. Denver hasn’t been the most dominant team in the NFL this season, but they have still managed to finish with a positive net success rate in 7 of their first 9 games. This past weekend against the Texans, they were able to squeak out a win on the road against a very good opposing defense.
Meanwhile, the Raiders played 60 minutes of regulation, plus 9 minutes and 44 seconds of overtime against the Jaguars. According to ClevTA, there have been 31 teams that have played on Thursday Night Football following an overtime game since 2000. Those teams are 6-25 ATS overall, including 3-16 ATS on the road in those spots. Las Vegas has the added challenge in Week 10 of traveling into the Denver altitude.
The Broncos aren’t as good as their 7-2 SU record suggests, but they have held their opponents without a touchdown in 4 separate games already this fall. If QB Bo Nix can simply take care of the football in this matchup, Denver should be able to win comfortably.
Bills (vs. Dolphins)
Are the Bills back? They had some help from the officials this past weekend against the Chiefs, but it’s still difficult to ignore that they dominated nearly every facet of that game. They held QB Patrick Mahomes to his first negative EPA/play performance of the year. They were even better on a down-to-down basis against Kansas City’s passing attack.
Per Bills PR, Buffalo’s 16 wins against the Dolphins since 2017 are tied for the most by any NFL team against a single opponent in that span. QB Josh Allen and company have won each of their last 7 head-to-head meetings against Miami.
The Dolphins traded away some defensive talent this past week as they appear to be setting their sights on 2026 and beyond. This would be one of the more surprising upsets of the year if Miami were able to pull it off. The biggest risk factor here is simply the heat in South Florida, especially with the sun on the visitors’ sideline and Buffalo coming from a cold-weather climate.
Colts (vs. Falcons)
QB Daniel Jones turned into a pumpkin this past Sunday against the Steelers, leading an offense that turned the ball over 6 times. It was, by far, the team’s worst showing of the season.
That being said, Indianapolis still played well on a down-to-down basis in Week 9. They averaged 1.3 more yards per play than Pittsburgh, had 9 more first downs, and had 138 more yards of total offense. Looking at the advanced metrics, the Colts finished with a +9.6% net success rate.
If Jones can do a better job taking care of the football this weekend, this offense should look much better overall. Atlanta also came out of their last game dealing with a number of injuries – not ideal for a team that is traveling overseas without a bye. The Colts might be able to win this contest simply by virtue of being healthier.
Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
At some point, we might need to start taking QB Sam Darnold and the Seahawks more seriously. They haven’t exactly played the league’s toughest schedule to date, but it’s nonetheless becoming difficult to ignore their consistent week-to-week dominance.
In 2025, Darnold has 3 of the league’s 5 best games by success rate. The team’s offensive line allowed him to be pressured only 3 times on 24 dropbacks this past Sunday against the Commanders. Overall this season, Darnold leads the NFL in EPA/play and success rate among qualified signal callers.
Backup QB Jacoby Brissett has done an admirable job filling in for Kyler Murray, but the fact remains that he’s still a league-average, at best, option under center. Arizona’s defense looked great against Dallas on Monday, but now they have to face one of the league’s most potent offenses on a short week. Seattle should be able to find a way to win this game.
Panthers (vs. Saints)
There might not be a single team in the NFL right now that would trade places with the Saints for 2025 or beyond. Through 9 weeks, New Orleans is 1-8 SU. Entering Week 10, they have only 2 of their 5 opening day starters healthy and available on the offensive line. They have also turned the keys to the offense over to rookie QB Tyler Shough, who has done little to prove that he’s earned the job.
Making his first career NFL start last weekend against the Rams, Shough looked overwhelmed, and it was clear that the coaching staff didn’t have full trust in him – evident from how much Taysom Hill had the ball in his hands. The result was a 34-10 loss and a dreadful -25.4% net success rate.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are fresh off of one of the biggest upsets in recent NFL history, defeating the Packers at Lambeau Field as 13.5-point underdogs. Carolina’s offense continues to be extremely limited, but their defense has been adequate enough to propel them to a winning record so far in 2025. Since Week 5, only the Texans, Broncos, and Browns have had a better defensive success rate than the Panthers.
Carolina’s biggest issue defensively has been allowing big plays – something that doesn’t figure to be much of a problem against a New Orleans offense that has generated the 2nd-fewest explosive pass plays in the NFL this year.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
Image Credit: Imagn