NFL Pick'em Pool Week 17 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Big underdogs reigned supreme early this fall, which led to our worst start to a season ever in this article. However, we have hit our stride since Week 4, with our top confidence picks each performing exceptionally well during the last two months. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
- Week 11: 6-2
- Week 12: 6-3
- Week 13: 7-0
- Week 14: 6-0
- Week 15: 8-1
- Week 16: 7-2
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 17 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 17 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Wednesday afternoon this week for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and also follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 17 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 17 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Detroit Lions
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Las Vegas Raiders
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Green Bay Packers
14. Tennessee Titans
15. Chicago Bears
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 17
Bills (vs. Jets)
At the beginning of the season, this was a matchup that many pundits speculated could decide the winner of the AFC East. Fast forward to now and these are two teams trending in completely separate directions. The Bills enter play having already clinched their division, led by the current MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. The Jets are an underwhelming 4-11 and are simply fighting to avoid a last-place finish in the division. Further complicating matters for New York this weekend is the fact that Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a knee injury. Rodgers has struggled even when healthy in 2024. Rodgers playing through a lower-half ailment on the road against a far superior team doesn’t sound like a recipe for success for the Jets.
Rams (vs. Cardinals)
In Week 16, the Cardinals were officially eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Panthers. Earlier this week, Arizona placed two of their five starting offensive lineman on injured reserve in a move that signals the team is “checking out” on the season, so to speak. Make no mistake, these are professional athletes who will do everything they can to win this weekend, but they face an uphill battle in a road game against a more talented opponent. Trying to pull an upset in this situation becomes even more difficult when a team is going through significant changes on the offensive line, and those issues have the potential to be magnified on a short week. The Rams should be able to take care of business here.
Dolphins (vs. Browns)
There are always going to be legitimate concerns about the Dolphins playing outdoors in cold weather late in the season, but those concerns are mitigated when Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the opposing quarterback. Thompson-Robinson has not thrown for more than 165 passing yards in any of his starts across the last two seasons. The Browns are 1-5 in games in which he’s thrown at least 5 passes, with the lone win coming by 3 points in a 13-10 victory over the Steelers last fall. Simply, there isn’t much hope that Cleveland’s offense can keep up with Tua Tagovailoa and company in this spot. This game could get ugly.
Lions (vs. 49ers)
Detroit is dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side of the ball right now, but those injuries haven’t mattered in recent weeks, and they aren’t likely to be a difference-maker this upcoming weekend against San Francisco. The Lions, 13-2, are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff picture, while the 49ers locker room has reportedly been deflated following their unexpected elimination from the playoffs. San Francisco is one of the few teams in the NFL that has more key players on injured reserve than the Lions heading into Week 17. The Lions are clearly the more talented team in this matchup – they should find a way to get the job done.
Eagles (vs. Cowboys)
Jalen Hurts is currently in concussion protocol, leaving some uncertainty as to whether he will be available to take the field this weekend against the Cowboys. That being said, a concussion doesn’t always lead to a player missing the following game, and even if Hurts doesn’t play, this is a game that Philadelphia is capable of winning. Cooper Rush ranks 32nd in EPA/play, 31st in success rate, and 34th in CPOE among 35 quarterbacks with 250+ plays this season. He has minimal upside and even less upside in a tough matchup against a strong Philadelphia defense. The Cowboys managed to pull an upset on Sunday Night Football against the Buccaneers, but they were outgained by 93 yards in that game, and that game could have had a different outcome if not for a couple of untimely Tampa Bay turnovers. The Eagles can win this game by simply taking care of the football and playing good defense. If Hurts ends up playing, Philadelphia’s chances of winning only increase.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
- Week 12: 6-7
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 9-4
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 10-6
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