NFL Pick'em Pool Week 2 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to jnoin the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
It’s Week 2 of the NFL regular season, which means we are already back to seeing lengthy injury reports that make Pick’em and Confidence contests a significant challenge – a fun challenge, though! We hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 8 times in 73 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 2 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 2 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 2 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 2 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Detroit Lions
8. San Francisco 49ers
9. Denver Broncos
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Miami Dolphins
12. Seattle Seahawks
13. Houston Texans
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. Minnesota Vikings
16. Green Bay Packers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 2
Ravens (vs. Browns)
Since 2018, home teams favored by between 10-14 points are 136-21 SU, per ClevTA. Baltimore had a 99.1% win probability with 4:48 remaining against Buffalo in their season opener and would likely be even bigger favorites in Week 2 if not for blowing a seemingly insurmountable lead on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.
The Browns are likely better than the market is giving them credit for at this point in the season, especially after outgaining the Bengals by 186 yards last weekend, but they are still the inferior team in this matchup. Cleveland is also a little bit banged up early this week – 3 starting offensive linemen, plus CB Denzel Ward, were limited at Wednesday’s practice.
Even if we assume Cleveland will have all of those guys on the field on Sunday, this is a game that Baltimore should be able to win.
Cardinals (vs. Panthers)
In Week 2, NFL fans will be treated to a battle of short quarterbacks, with QB Bryce Young of the Panthers visiting QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in the desert. Arizona wasn’t dominant in their season opener, but they did what they needed to do to secure a road victory in one of the tougher places to play in the league. They are also one of the league’s healthiest teams heading into this weekend, with no starters popping up on Wednesday’s injury report.
On the other side of this matchup, the Panthers look like they could once again be without LT Ikem Ekwonu, who is recovering from an appendectomy. Backup LT Yosh Nijman was not good against the Jaguars, allowing a 14% pressure rate. Carolina also has a pair of defensive starters on the injury report early this week – EDGE Tershawn Wharton and LB Pat Jones II.
Arizona is the better team, the healthier team, and they get to play at home this weekend. They should be able to take care of business.
Cowboys (vs. Giants)
The Cowboys almost pulled off a colossal upset on opening night, taking the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles down to the wire on the road on Thursday Night Football. They actually outgained Philadelphia in that contest and were near even in both EPA/play and success rate – two indicators suggesting that the game was every bit as competitive as the final score suggests.
The biggest challenge for Dallas in Week 2 will be on the defensive side of the ball, playing without LB DeMarvion Overshown and CB DaRon Bland. CB Trevon Diggs isn’t back to 100% snap share yet, either, and S Malik Hooker was limited at practice on Wednesday with a foot issue.
Still, the Giants looked like one of the league’s worst teams in Week 1. They finished the week with the 3rd-worst net EPA/play and 2nd-worst net success rate in the league. Only the Dolphins were outgained by more yards in their season opener. As of this writing, it doesn’t appear that LT Andrew Thomas will be able to play this weekend. New York is 3-16 SU the last 2 years when Thomas is unavailable. Last week, backup LT James Hudson III was a disaster, allowing a 19% pressure rate. If QB Russell Wilson doesn’t have good protection, he’s likely to struggle once again – even against a Dallas defense that is depleted by injury.
Rams (vs. Titans)
There is certainly a lot of long-term upside for QB Cam Ward in the NFL, but we didn’t see much of it in his NFL debut against the Broncos. He finished the week with the 2nd-worst EPA/play and the worst success rate among starting quarterbacks. Overall, no team had a worse net success rate than the Titans in their season opener.
This is a tough travel spot for the Rams, going across the country for a 1:00 p.m. ET start time (10:00 a.m. Los Angeles time). That being said, the Rams have performed well in these situations under HC Sean McVay, going 17-8 SU (.680) in the early time slot, per Sarah Barshop.
The biggest concern here for Los Angeles is simply health. LG Steve Avila, RG Kevin Dotson, and RT Rob Havenstein were all non-participants at practice on Wednesday. Their status is worth following as we approach kickoff, given how little quality depth the Rams have on the offensive line.
Bengals (vs. Jaguars)
The betting spread on this game moved 3 points after Week 1, in response to Jacksonville easily discarding Carolina while Cincinnati was fortunate to survive what many expected to be an easy game against Cleveland to begin the year. That line movement is likely an overreaction.
The Panthers are almost certainly one of the league’s worst teams and they got in their own way quite a bit in Week 1, turning the ball over 3 times. Jacksonville wasn’t exactly sharp, committing 11 penalties and allowing Carolina to go 8-for-15 on 3rd down. If the Panthers would have taken better care of the football, that game would have likely been much more competitive.
The Bengals certainly struggled as well, but they seemingly always struggle against the Browns – and it’s worth noting that the Browns defense is much better than people think. Cincinnati gets to play Jacksonville at home this weekend, which is a matchup that should allow QB Joe Burrow and company to flourish offensively. They should be bigger favorites in this contest.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
Image Credit: Imagn