NFL Pick'em Pool Week 7 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 7 of the NFL regular season begins this evening with Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers visiting Joe Flacco and the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Ahead of kickoff, Pittsburgh is priced as a 5.5-point favorite – they are 1 of 7 teams favored by 5+ points this weekend.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, three of the five teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list. In Week 6, the Eagles surprisingly ruled out DT Jalen Carter 90 minutes prior to kickoff, and then CB Quinyon Mitchell exited with an injury, playing only 13 snaps, leading to a Philadelphia loss. Our other 5 picks in the top 6 of our confidence rankings all came through!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season when we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 78 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 7 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 7 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 7 Selections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Denver Broncos
5. Chicago Bears
6. New England Patriots
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Detroit Lions
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. New York Jets
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. Washington Commanders
13. San Francisco 49ers
14. Los Angeles Chargers
15. Miami Dolphins
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 7
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
Remember when the Chiefs were 0-2 SU and the sky was falling? No? It’s okay – not even Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Since that point, the Chiefs are 3-1 SU, with wins over the Giants, Ravens, and Lions. Their only loss in that stretch came on the road in Week 5 against the Jaguars. Kansas City dominated that game, finishing with a +14.3% net success rate, but an untimely pick-6 from Patrick Mahomes turned a likely victory into a narrow defeat.
Nevertheless, in their last 4 games, Kansas City leads the NFL in offensive EPA/play and ranks 10th in defensive EPA/play. In Week 7, their offense is likely to get an additional boost with the return of WR Rashee Rice from his 6-game suspension.
Following a slow start to the year, Mahomes and the Chiefs once again look like a juggernaut. They should be able to handle the Raiders in this spot.
Packers (vs. Cardinals)
Through 6 weeks, Green Bay is 1 of 2 teams to have a positive net success rate in every game they have played. Meanwhile, Arizona is 1 of 3 teams to have a negative net success rate in every game they have played.
This season, teams to finish with a positive net success rate are 73-19-1 SU (79.3%). From a predictive standpoint, this is a strong metric because of how it weights down-to-down team performance. Put another way, it doesn’t get lost in the sauce of turnovers and splash plays – events that have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of an individual game but aren’t necessarily replicable on a week-to-week basis.
If that analysis is too in the weeds, consider that Jordan Love is 1 of 5 quarterbacks this season to have a positive EPA/play in every single game. On the other side of this matchup, starting Kyler Murray could potentially miss his 2nd consecutive game with a foot injury. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett played reasonably well in Week 6 against the Colts but is only 7-15 SU in his last 22 starts.
The Packers have the better quarterback and the better defense in this matchup. They are favored by 6.5 points for a reason.
Steelers (vs. Bengals)
Through 3 weeks, the Steelers appeared to be more lucky than good, winning 2 games in that span, despite being decisively outgained in each of those matchups. However, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore that they keep winning…and their recent wins even look like a possible recipe for sustained success in 2025.
In Week 4, Pittsburgh dominated Minnesota in international play, finishing that game with a +15.6% net success rate. Following their Week 5 bye, they returned home healthy to make quick work of Cleveland – winning by 14 points and outgaining them by 87 yards on the afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers struggled in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but that performance is looking more excusable by the day, given Seattle’s continued dominance on the defensive side of the ball. Since that point, Rodgers has posted a +0.191 EPA/play in each of Pittsburgh’s 3 games. Since Week 3, he ranks 11th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate among qualified quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have finished each of their last 5 games with a -5.8% net success rate or worse. They traded for Joe Flacco prior to their Week 6 game against the Packers, but he hardly moved the needle for an offense that has struggled mightily this season. Facing a Pittsburgh defense that excels at getting pressure and forcing turnovers doesn’t appear to be a likely turnaround spot for Cincinnati on Thursday.
Broncos (vs. Giants)
This is an extremely difficult travel spot for the Broncos, returning from an international game without the benefit of a bye week. We just saw the Browns struggle mightily in their return from London in a similar situation, losing by 14 points against the Steelers.
That being said, Denver’s defense has dominated bottom-tier offenses all season. They have held the Bengals, Titans, and Jets each to 159 yards of total offense or less. In terms of yards allowed, those games represent 3 of the 5 best defensive performances of the season to date.
The Giants offense looked great last Thursday against the Eagles, but it can’t be overlooked that Philadelphia’s defense was playing without DT Jalen Carter in that game. Star CB Quinyon Mitchell also exited after only 13 snaps due to injury.
Bo Nix and company might not win this game in a rout, but they should be able to find a way to come out ahead after 60 minutes, especially if starting C John Michael Schmitz isn’t able to graduate from concussion protocol for the Giants prior to kickoff.
Bears (vs. Saints)
Early this season, New Orleans has been more competitive than many pundits expected. That being said, they have played 4 home games against non-elite competition, which has contributed to some close final scores. In 2 road games, they have been outscored 75-32 against the Seahawks and Bills.
The Bears might not be as good as either of the Saints first two road opponents, but they certainly seem to be trending in a positive direction after Monday’s win over the Commanders. Chicago’s revamped offensive line is a point of concern, but less so against a New Orleans pass rush that hasn’t caused quarterbacks too much trouble in 2025.
Spencer Rattler has played reasonably well through 6 weeks, but the fact remains that he’s 1-11 SU in his career as a starter, which includes an 0-5 SU record on the road. In those 5 road starts, his teams have finished with 8 points, 0 points, 19 points, 13 points, and 19 points. Simply, it’s difficult to win in the NFL when a team’s offense can’t hit 20 points – it’s even more difficult to do so when playing on the road with a defense that has allowed 20+ points in 8 of their last 9 road contests, dating back to 2024.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
Image Credit: Imagn