NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 10
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPP’s, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPP’s, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
First, let me apologize to Broncos fans for talking up their defense from a historical perspective in last week’s column. The Broncos came out and had their worst defensive game of the year, and also took their first loss of the season. That being said, I am not worried, and still feel they have the best defense in the NFL this season, maybe just not one of the best ever. I expect to continue to target them in both cash games and GPP’s. Another thing I want to focus on the rest of the season is that the overall talent of the defense is more important than their matchup that week. Bad defenses will have good weeks, but for the most part, even the worst NFL offenses are competent enough to score points on bad defenses. Atlanta and New Orleans were good examples of below average defenses in good/great matchups this past Sunday that didn’t pan out.
Week 9 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 9:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.61
Other Defenses to Target: 7.36
All Favorites: 8.41
All Home Teams: 7.45
All Teams: 7.05
Week 9 Top Scoring Defenses: New York Jets (13 pts), New York Giants (13 pts), Philadelphia Eagles (12 pts)
The defense that fit the criteria had another strong week with the New York Jets and even the Buffalo Bills. The Jets finished tied for the top scoring defense of the week with 13 points. The Jaguars did move the ball and score some points, but the Jets produced four turnovers and five sacks on Sunday. The Bills were close to having a bigger day early, but Tannehill’s fumble went out of the end zone for a safety before the Bills could recover it for a TD. The Bills produced a solid seven points though with a turnover, two sacks, and the safety.
The other defenses to target were not great this past week. I mentioned the Broncos above already, who did salvage their day with a punt return TD. Seven points is not bad, especially on a low scoring week, but I expected more from the Broncos defense against a turnover prone Colts offense. I also mentioned the Saints above. The lesson there is that bad defenses are usually bad regardless of their matchup.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Denver Broncos ($5200 FD, $3400 DK) vs Kansas City – Denver is 6.5 point favorites with a total of 42. I discussed the Broncos some above but even after a poor performance, they still lead the league in total defense, scoring defense, and sacks. This week they face a Chiefs offense that doesn’t scare me, especially since they lost Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank 24th in total offense and allow the 3rd most sacks in the NFL. I think the Broncos defense gets back on track at home this week, and I like them for both cash games and GPP’s.
St. Louis Rams ($5400 FD, $3600 DK) vs Chicago – St. Louis is 7.5 point favorites with a total of 42.5. The Rams’ defense has also been very good this year ranking 5th in total defense and 6th in scoring defense. This week they face a very mediocre Bears offense that ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in both total offense and scoring offense. Jay Cutler has also been prone to turnovers throughout his career. Vegas has the Bears projected to only score about 17-18 points this week. I think the Rams are a safe option this week, although they do come at the highest price point on both sites.
Seattle Seahawks ($4900 FD, $3500 DK) vs Arizona – Seattle is three-point favorites with a total of 44.5. I think this is going to be a very interesting matchup this week. The Seahawks defense is again one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking 2nd in both total defense and 2nd in scoring defense. They are coming off a bye week and are generally even better at home. The matchup is tough this week as the Cardinals offense has been very good this year. That being said, Vegas has the Cardinals projected to score less
than 21 points this week, and I think the Seahawks can get it done here in what could be a must win game.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4600 FD, $3000 DK) vs Cleveland – Pittsburgh is five-point favorites with a total of 41. It could be argued that this last defense that fits the criteria could also fall into the bad defense in a good matchup argument. But the Steelers defense has been average to above average this season. They have given up their share of yards, but they rank 8th in scoring defense. They also have been good at creating turnovers with 15 of them on the season. Only two teams have turned the ball over more than the Browns have this season. If you are looking for some salary relief this week, I think the Steelers may make the best option.
Other Defenses to Target
Carolina Panthers ($4700 FD, $3300 DK) at Tennessee – the Panthers’ defense has also been good this year, ranking 11th in total defense and 11th in scoring defense, but where they have really made their mark is that they rank 4th in the NFL in both sacks and turnovers. Their opponent this week is the Tennessee Titans who have turned the ball over the 3rd most in the NFL, and are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to defenses this season. They also have been surprisingly worse at home. I think the Panthers may make one of the best options this week considering they come at a little bit of a discount this week.