NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 14
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top-heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 13 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 13:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.39
Other Defenses to Target: 7.60
All Favorites: 8.44
All Home Teams: 7.40
All Teams: 7.01
Week 13 Top Scoring Defenses: Philadelphia (25 pts), Denver (23 pts), Pittsburgh (21 pts)
I am not going to spend a lot of time recapping the defenses that fit the criteria from last week because, as I mentioned in last week’s column, I felt all four teams were high risk but high upside GPP options. It played out that way with scoring of 17, 9, 6, and 4 for the defenses that fit the criteria. The Dolphins ended up being the one very good play of the week producing two turnovers, three sacks, and the elusive defensive touchdown.
The big miss of the week was the New England Patriots who were the other defense to target. This game was a prime example of you can try to put yourself in a good situation, but things sometimes do not play out as expected. The Patriots actual defense was actually pretty good in this one, holding the Eagles to under 250 yards of total offense. The big difference was special teams. The Eagles had a blocked punt TD and punt return TD (as well as an interception return TD). In the end, the Patriots defense only produced two fantasy points. On the other side of the field, the Eagles defense produced 25 fantasy points. My guess is that the Eagles ownership in GPP’s this past week was almost non-existent. Like I said, sometimes things don’t work out as we may expect.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Denver Broncos ($5400 FD, $3400 DK) vs Oakland – The Broncos are 7.5 point favorites with a total of 43.5. For the first half of the season, the Broncos were a staple of this column. On the season, Denver ranks 1st in total defense, 1st in sacks, and 2nd in scoring defense. They are also tied for 2nd in the NFL with 23 takeaways. A matchup with the Raiders is not the prime matchup it was last year, but the Chiefs did just score 18 fantasy points against the Raiders last week. Also, in Week 5, Denver’s defense produced 20 fantasy points at Oakland. The price is high on both sites but I’ll trust Denver’s overall body of work this season. I think they make a strong cash game and GPP play this week.
New York Jets ($4800 FD, $3200 DK) vs Tennessee – The Jets are seven-point favorites with a total of 43. The Jets defense gets maybe the best matchup of the week against the Tennessee Titans. Only the Browns have allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses this season. The Titans have the 2nd most giveaways in the NFL with 24 and have also allowed the 2nd most sacks in the NFL. The Jets have been a top 10 defense on the season in terms of both total offense and total defense. Add everything up and I think the Jets are in really good spot this week, especially if they get Darrelle Revis back. I like their price best on FD but think they make a good GPP play on both sites.
Green Bay Packers ($4800 FD, $3200 DK) vs Dallas – The Packers are seven-point favorites with a total of 43.5. I am not going to throw a lot of stats out here as anyone who watched the game on Monday night saw how bad this Cowboys offense is with Matt Cassel. 58 awful minutes of football was saved by an exciting finish, but I tend to think this Cowboys offense is more in line with what they show for a majority of the game. They have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing defenses on the season. This is a situation where we have an average defense in a very good matchup, but I like the Packers this week as a contrarian GPP play.
Other Defense to Target
Seattle Seahawks ($5300 FD, $3500 DK) at Baltimore – Matt Schaub has thrown a pick-six in seven of his last nine starts. He has thrown a pick six in both of his two starts with the Ravens this season and now has done so in his last three starts. He once threw pick-sixes in four straight games when he was playing for Houston. I probably could just stop my discussion here and recommend any defense facing Matt Schaub as a strong, high upside GPP play. But this week the walking pick-six known as Matt Schaub faces a Seahawks defense that is one of the best in the NFL. For me, despite being on the road, the Seahawks are a very good cash game play and strong GPP play this week, even at their high price point.
Philadelphia Eagles ($4600 FD, $2500 DK) vs Buffalo – I hesitate to even list the Eagles here as the Bills have not exactly given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing defenses. But when looking for a cheaper option this week, I landed on Philly simply due to their upside. This pick is a complete punt play boom-or-bust GPP option, but I do think there is merit to what the Eagles defense and special teams has done over the last two seasons. They now have a whopping 14 return TDs on defense and special teams over their last 28 games. They just put up 27 fantasy points against the Patriots behind three return TDs. On the season, they have scored in double digits five times. Again, if you are looking for a cheap GPP play, I think you could do worse than the upside the Eagles provide.