NFL Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 6
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of my favorite GPP defensive/special team plays for the week. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of been the person I described above. I tend to scroll to the bottom of the list of defenses, plug in the first one I find with a decent matchup, and then fill out the rest of my roster. Occasionally I’ll revisit my defensive selection if I end up with any salary left over. BUT, if you look at the weekly GPP winners, they almost always nail their defense. So picking the right defense is pretty important to taking down a large GPP. I know this from experience. I missed out on a FFFC qualifier seat one week last season because my defense and kicker combined for only 6 points. I finished 4th by 5 points and the winner got double digit points from both their kicker and defense. If I just picked the right defense, I would have been going to Vegas.
Recap of Week 5
Here is the Cumulative Defensive Scoring Averages (Week 3-4 excluding Thurs games):
Defenses that Fit the Criteria- 8.50 FD Points
Other Defenses to Target- 4.33 FD Points
All Favorites- 6.88 FD Points
All Home Teams- 7.05 FD Points
All Teams- 6.22 FD Points
Top Scoring D/ST Week 5- Philadelphia (17 FD pts), San Diego (16 FD pts), Steelers (15 FD pts)
The defenses that fit the criteria had another solid week overall. The Chargers were the 2nd highest scoring defense of the week with 16 FD points. While they failed to force a lot of turnovers or sacks, they were able to pitch a shutout and put up a good point total. The Lions also put up a solid score with 11 FD points. They looked like they could be heading for a huge day with an early pick six, but they kind of fizzled after that as their own offense struggled to win the field position game. The one below average pick that fit the criteria was SF. The 49ers defense held the Chiefs to only 17 points scored, but only forced 1 turnover with 0 sacks.
My other picks had a bad week mainly due to the Cincinnati defense. Every time I think the Patriots may be down, they seem to put up a performance like they did Sunday night. Brady looked like classic Brady, and the Bengals had no answer for the Patriots TE’s over the middle. The Broncos defense also was underwhelming. The game didn’t play out as expected as the Broncos failed to pull away until the middle of the 4th quarter. Hopefully everyone was on San Diego and Detroit in Week 5.
For the 2nd straight week, the Eagles were the top scoring defense. I said last week that their scoring was a little bit of a fluke in my opinion, and I still feel that way. They now have 2 block punt TD’s, 2 interception return TD’s, and 1 punt return TD in the last 2 weeks. That is impossible to predict. In those 2 games, their defense has given up an average of 27 points scored. The one caveat would be that maybe the amount of plays their offense runs and the fast pace they play at leads to their defense being on the field for more plays. More plays = more chances for big defensive scores.
Defenses That Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Tennessee ($5100 FD, $2900 DK) vs Jacksonville- Tennessee is a 6-point favorite in this spot with a total of 44. Through 5 weeks, just taking the defense that has faced the Jaguars has resulted in these point totals: 12, 16, 17, 10, and 15. As you can see, a trend is developing again this year. The Jaguars offense is bad. The Titans defense has not been good over the last few weeks, but I think the matchup alone has to put them on everyone’s DFS radar this week. Their price is in the mid-range on both sites this week.
Cincinnati ($5500 FD, $3700 DK) vs Carolina- Cincinnati is a 7-point favorite this week with a total of 44.5. As mentioned above, Cincinnati ran in to a New England buzz saw on Sunday night. But, I still think Cincinnati has one of the better defenses in the league. They play a Carolina team that is pretty one-dimensional this year (30th in the league in rushing). I think the Cincinnati defense can return to its strong early season play. The one downside is that their price has not dropped, as they are still one of the highest priced defenses on both FD and DK this week.
Please note: Arizona may fit the criteria this week. But at the time of writing this, there still was not a total posted on the game (due to the uncertainty on Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton). While I think it will be 45 or less, I did not want to officially list them here.
Other Defenses to Target this Week
San Diego ($5600 FD, $3400 DK) at Oakland- San Diego has had one of the most consistent fantasy defenses this year in a season with very little consistent from the position. They’ve put up the following point totals: 7, 5, 9, 10, and 16. They are also trending in the right direction over the last few weeks and now get another bad offense in the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are last in the NFL in both yards per game and points per game. They have also turned the ball over 8 times in 4 games. If you are paying up for a defense this week, I think San Diego may be the best option.
Denver ($5000 FD, $3100 DK) at New York Jets- I will continue the trend of picking defenses facing bad offenses this week. The Jets are obviously coming off a game where they got shutout. Whether it is Geno Smith or Mike Vick at QB, I think the Jets’ offense will continue to struggle. Assuming Denver focuses on stopping the run, can jump out to a lead, and forces the 32nd ranked pass offense to throw; both of these QB’s have been prone to a lot of turnovers. Denver also has a pretty modest price on both sites this week.