NFL Daily Fantasy Preparation: Part 1
Preseason Daily Fantasy NFL Preparation: Part 1
Oh baby!!! It’s that time of year again…the NFL is back!!! Sorry, I got all Chris Berman on you there, but in this day and age it is basic scientific fact that the NFL is the king of the Pro Sports and Fantasy Sports’ jungles. Now, I’m a fan of all facets of pro, fantasy, and [major] college sports, but there is something special about the structure of NFL Fantasy Football. Couple that with the ever-growing enthusiasm behind the sport and the industry and it makes it tough to not let out a Swami ‘Whoooop’ with every value draft pick you make. To prepare for the upcoming NFL season, and consequently the Daily Fantasy NFL Season, RotoGrinders is going to be getting our users ready for pigskin action in a multi-part and extensive NFL Strategy series. We will cover everything from player values, to game types, to overviews of your options across the major Daily Fantasy sites. In this article, we will be going over preseason player rankings and where to best look for value while headed into the early weeks of the season.
Using Defensive Projections in Early Season Projections
I am honestly starting to believe that there are some very powerful and influential preseason ADP-saboteurs lurking in the hallways of America’s most reputable sports media corporations. Season after season, we hear credible fantasy football journalists go out on a limb time and time again, in order to basque in the glory of that one amazing sleeper call. The leaders of these long-shot draft pick movements, as well as the opportunity of basquing in this fantasy sleeper glory itself, consistently lead to questionable ADP Rankings. These questionable ADP Rankings lead to skewed judgment early in the Daily Fantasy Season and skewed Salary values set by daily fantasy sites.
When ranking players in Daily NFL Fantasy, looking at defensive matchups is crucial to success. Coming into the season with solid Defense ratings will give you an advantage from the get-go. This season, I’ve ranked My Top Five and Bottom Five Pass and Run Defenses heading into Week 1 of 2010. I think it is very important to separate the two aspects of Defense in order to properly adjust your offensive players ratings week by week. I’ve formulated these rankings using data from the 2009 season, data from the 2010 preseason, and by implementing minor tweaks based on transactions and other key variables from last season to this season. The heaviest emphasis is put on yards allowed as this is the most consistent predictor of a Defense’s long-term success. The results are shown below, and are important when analyzing Week 1 matchups and accurately projecting offensive players better than your opponents. This may go without saying, but in general, you should:
- Steer clear of top run defenses with all but Stud Running Backs
- Avoid top pass defenses with all but Stud QBs and Wide Receivers; AND
- Give every offensive player a respective notch up by their position when going against weak defenses relative to their area.
Preseason Defense Rankings
| Top 5 | Rushing D | Passing D |
|---|---|---|
| 1) | Vikings | Panthers |
| 2) | Packers | Jets |
| 3) | Ravens | 49ers |
| 4) | Jets | Raiders |
| 5) | Eagles | Bills |
| Bottom 5 | Rushing D | Passing D |
|---|---|---|
| 28) | Denver | Lions |
| 29) | Kansas City | Titans |
| 30) | Tampa Bay | Cardinals |
| 31) | Oakland | Rams |
| 32) | Buffalo | Jaguars |
The Top Five Rushing Defenses are a complete powerhouse list, and there is not much surprise here. In the bottom five, one might find Denver as a surprise, but their Run-D faded as last season went on, they’ve lost Elvis Dumervil, and they spent all of their top draft picks on offensive players. There could be a rough transition for Denver from the Orton Mustache into the Tebow era. The biggest manual shift went to the 49ers pass D, who took their good reputation coming into preseason and backed it up so far by only allowing 128 Pass YPG to the Vikings and the Colts. The Packers Offense and Woodson’s age kept Green Bay out of the Top 5, and the Bills snuck their way into the 5th spot. In the Bottom Five of Pass Defense, none of the teams should come as too much of a surprise. The most notable is probably the Lions, who have shown marked improvement in their Pass D so far this preseason.
That does it for the first installment of Preseason Daily Fantasy NFL Preparation. This weekend I will provide my Week 1 value picks for each offensive roster spot. After that we will delve into what each of the major Daily Fantasy sites have in store for us for this upcoming season, then finally we will do some Week 1 Mock Drafts! If you would like to contribute towards any of these or would like to participate in the Week 1 Mock Drafts, then just shoot me an email here.
Get Some Early Practice:
Can’t wait any longer for NFL fantasy games? Fear not Grinders. I would like to give major props to Fantasy Sports Live for even entertaining the thought of Daily Preseason NFL Fantasy Games, much less making them available. You can expect wacky and fun ideas spawning from the team that produced this tutorial video (I watch this twice per week). I’d recommend hopping in one of their zero-rake $1 or $2 to start getting ready for the season.