NFL DFS Expert Survey: Thursday Night Football - September 22nd

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DraftKings

Who are your three favorite Captains, ranked in order?

headChopper: Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris
squirrelpatrol: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Kareem Hunt
TJ Zwarych: Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson, Kareem Hunt
TastefulTides: Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper

Consensus top Captains, based on the above:

1. Diontae Johnson
2. Nick Chubb
3. Najee Harris

Who is your favorite player to correlate with your favorite Captain?

headChopper: Mitchell Trubisky
squirrelpatrol: Mitch Trubisky
TJ Zwarych: Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: Mitch Trubisky

Who are your three highest exposure players in your FLEX position, ranked in order?

headChopper: Nick Chubb, Pat Freiermuth, Amari Cooper
squirrelpatrol: Jacoby Brissett, Nick Chubb, Cade York
TJ Zwarych: Diontae Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: Jacoby Brissett, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones

Consensus highest exposure FLEX plays, based on the above:

1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Nick Chubb
3. Diontae Johnson

Who is your favorite contrarian Captain?

headChopper: Pat Freiermuth
squirrelpatrol: Najee Harris
TJ Zwarych: Nick Chubb
TastefulTides: Najee Harris

Who is your favorite contrarian option to use in the FLEX?

headChopper: George Pickens
squirrelpatrol: Donovan Peoples-Jones
TJ Zwarych: Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: Pat Freiermuth

What player do you plan on being most overweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Chase Claypool
squirrelpatrol: Najee Harris
TJ Zwarych: Nick Chubb
TastefulTides: Diontae Johnson

What player do you plan on being most underweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Jacoby Brissett
squirrelpatrol: Browns D/ST
TJ Zwarych: Chase Claypool
TastefulTides: Chase Claypool

FanDuel

Who are your three favorite MVPs, ranked in order?

headChopper: Nick Chubb, Najee Harris, Mitchell Trubisky
squirrelpatrol: Nick Chubb, Jacoby Brissett, Najee Harris
TJ Zwarych: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Diontae Johnson
TastefulTides: Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris

Consensus top MVPs, based on the above:

1. Nick Chubb
2. Najee Harris
3. Diontae Johnson

Who is your favorite player to correlate with your favorite MVP?

headChopper: Chase Claypool
squirrelpatrol: Mitch Trubisky
TJ Zwarych: Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: Diontae Johnson

Who are your three highest exposure players in your anyFLEX position, ranked in order?

headChopper: Amari Cooper, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
squirrelpatrol: Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Cade York
TJ Zwarych: Kareem Hunt, Diontae Johnson, Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: Jacoby Brissett, Cade York, Amari Cooper

Consensus highest exposure anyFLEX plays, based on the above:

1. Jacoby Brissett
2. Amari Cooper
3. Diontae Johnson

Who is your favorite contrarian MVP?

headChopper: Chase Claypool
squirrelpatrol: Kareem Hunt
TJ Zwarych: Kareem Hunt
TastefulTides: Diontae Johnson

Who is your favorite contrarian anyFLEX option?

headChopper: George Pickens
squirrelpatrol: Donovan Peoples-Jones
TJ Zwarych: Browns D/ST
TastefulTides: David Njoku

What player do you plan on being most overweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Nick Chubb
squirrelpatrol: Najee Harris
TJ Zwarych: Kareem Hunt
TastefulTides: Diontae Johnson

What player do you plan on being most underweight on compared to the field?

headChopper: Jacoby Brissett
squirrelpatrol: Browns D/ST
TJ Zwarych: Najee Harris
TastefulTides: Chase Claypool

What is your favorite game-script build and why?

headChopper: Ugly game. Low scoring. Neither team is able to pass the ball well and the running backs have small amounts of space to make things happen, but more than the passing game. Both QBs are very suspect and the Pitt offensive line is awful.

squirrelpatrol: This game should feature the RBs from both teams as the primary pieces on offense and will likely be low-scoring. I think recency bias might have people too heavily on Cleveland and the Browns defense, however, and Nick Chubb is especially expensive on DraftKings for a RB with a limited role in the passing game.

TJ Zwarych: I don’t trust either QB in this game, which makes it also tough to put too much stock in any of the receivers. I love pairing up the defenses with my RB CPT/MVP teams, and hope for a low-scoring game with a lot of turnovers.

TastefulTides: This should be a very heavy run script for the Browns this week, and I really think Nick Chubb will be heavily utilized. Teams have been running all over the Steelers in the first two weeks and this week really shouldn’t be any different. As much as I don’t trust Trubisky to move the ball, I think he will be forced to target his pass-catchers. Diontae Johnson is my favorite of that group and will be an underowned CPT/MVP. I don’t expect there to be a ton of points in this game, but I think we will be able to predict where the production will come from.

Which players will you restrict from appearing together often due to possible negative correlation?

headChopper: I want to keep the Browns WRs limited to just 1 per lineup.

squirrelpatrol: I likely won’t use more than one RB from Pittsburgh, and I’ll likely make sure that any team that features multiple pass-catchers from the same team has the QB in the CPT/MVP spot.

TJ Zwarych: While I have no issue doubling up on the Browns RBs, I likely won’t play any teams with more than one Pittsburgh RB.

TastefulTides: I don’t want more than one WR from either team. I don’t think there will be enough volume for WRs to be extremely productive. So, for instance, I will not have Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool in the same lineup.

What is your favorite way to differentiate from the field?

headChopper: I like the idea of playing both defenses and maybe even 1 or 2 kickers in the same lineup and just rooting for an all-out offensive disaster.

squirrelpatrol: I’ll aim to go overweight on the Pittsburgh offense, particularly Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson, in the hopes that they can get more going than people are expecting and maybe even pull the upset. I will also strongly consider eliminating the Browns D/ST from my player pool – they are only +600 to score a TD, and without a TD (or a shutout) the defense will have a difficult time cracking the winning lineup.

TJ Zwarych: Playing both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt together, with one of them as the MVP on FD. I’ll be making multiple lineups that feature 0 QBs, which is the opposite of how I typically opperate, trying to jam them both in. Defenses, running backs, and one receiver from the opposite team; I’m RB/D stacking today.

TastefulTides: As much as I think the Browns will cover the spread in this game, I think that the majority of the scoring will go through Chubb. This forces me to be lighter on Brissett, Cooper, and Peoples-Jones. With this script, I want to go heavier on the Steelers and actually play a 2-4 stack. (2 Browns, 4 Steelers). Since I think the Browns will be run-heavy, the clock will be ticking. That will force the Steelers to throw and possibly be doing a lot of check-downs to Harris and plenty of targets to Diontae Johnson. I think ownership will flock more towards a 4-2 Browns build or the more traditional 3-3 build. That will give a Steelers 4-2 build some nice leverage for tournaments.

What is an example of one rule you can program into LineupHQ to capitalize on the above strategies?

headChopper: Player Groups —> New Group —> Use Exactly 1 player —> List all Cleveland WRs and TEs in your player pool

squirrelpatrol: Adjust the Mx% exposure on the Browns D/ST to 9% or less.

TJ Zwarych: Player Groups —> New Group —> At Least 1 of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb

TastefulTides: Player Groups —> New Group —> 0-1 WRs from Trubisky lineups

Player Groups —> New Group —> 0-1 WRs from Brissett lineups

What is your hottest take for this game?

headChopper: Both defenses are in the top 6 of fantasy points scored tonight.

squirrelpatrol: Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson combine for 16 receptions.

TJ Zwarych: Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb combine for 3 touchdowns, and both running backs as well as both D/STs are in the optimal lineup.

TastefulTides: A Steelers 4-2 stack wins all the money on DraftKings despite them losing the game by double digits.

Predict the final score of the game.

headChopper: CLE 20 – PITT 13

squirrelpatrol: CLE 24 – PIT 20

TJ Zwarych: CLE 24 – PIT 20

TastefulTides: CLE 28 – PIT 17

Image Credit: Imagn

This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

DraftKings

Who are your three favorite Captains, ranked in order?

About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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