NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate

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Rank your three favorite players for optimal lineups, in order:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Josh Allen Amon-Ra St. Brown Rhamondre Stevenson
STLCardinals84 Josh Allen Amon-Ra St. Brown Dalton Schultz
MrTuttle Josh Allen Rhamondre Stevenson Dawson Knox (FD) / Dalton Schultz (DK)
ebeimfohr Josh Allen Jakobi Meyers Jakobi Meyers

Rank your three favorite players for large-field contests, in order, who are below 10% pOWN%:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Tony Pollard Darius Slayton T.J. Hockenson
STLCardinals84 Devin Singletary Brock Wright Adam Thielen
MrTuttle D’Andre Swift Gabe Davis T.J. Hockenson
ebeimfohr D’Andre Swift James Cook Brock Wright

Who is your favorite salary relief option this week?

Notorious: Jakobi Meyers
STLCardinals84: Gabe Davis (DK) / Jakobi Meyers (FD)
MrTuttle: Dawson Knox (FD) / Dalton Schultz (DK)
ebeimfohr: Gabe Davis

What’s the best position to save salary on?

Notorious: TE
STLCardinals84: TE
MrTuttle: TE
ebeimfohr: TE

Who is your favorite high salary DST to use this week?

Notorious: DAL
STLCardinals84: BUF
MrTuttle: DAL
ebeimfohr: DAL

Who is your favorite low salary DST to use this week?

Notorious: NEP
STLCardinals84: NYG
MrTuttle: NYG
ebeimfohr: NEP

What player do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Saquon Barkley
STLCardinals84: Amon-Ra St. Brown
MrTuttle: D’Andre Swift
ebeimfohr: D’Andre Swift

What player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Saquon Barkley
STLCardinals84: CeeDee Lamb
MrTuttle: Amon-Ra St. Brown
ebeimfohr: Justin Jefferson

What stack will you be most underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Daniel Jones + WRs
STLCardinals84: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb
MrTuttle: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb
ebeimfohr: DAL

What team will you target players from the most compared to the field?

Notorious: BUF
STLCardinals84: BUF
MrTuttle: BUF
ebeimfohr: DET

What team will you target players from the least compared to the field?

Notorious: N/A
STLCardinals84: MIN
MrTuttle: DAL
ebeimfohr: DAL

What game will exceed its implied total by the most points this week?

Notorious: BUF/DET
STLCardinals84: BUF/DET
MrTuttle: BUF/DET
ebeimfohr: BUF/DET

What is your favorite player correlation and why?

Notorious: Josh Allen + Devin Singletary + Amon-Ra St. Brown – I don’t expect any of these three to be low-owned, but I am curious to see the ownership of these three paired together. Allen should be the most popular quarterback target of the slate and Singletary will be used as a leverage play against him, but it doesn’t feel natural to pair a quarterback with his running back. The way I see it, the Bills have an implied total of 32 points, they have a dream matchup against the Lions, and they are playing indoors. By using Allen and Singletary together, we might be able to capture all of the offensive touchdowns for the Bills. I like bringing it back with St. Brown, who seems to get tackled on the one or two-yard line every single week. He continues to have a massive target share and the Bills are still without key pieces in their secondary.

STLCardinals84: The obvious answer is Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. It’s the Bills passing attack in a dome against Detroit’s defense. You know what to do. If you’re looking to pivot, I don’t mind running quite a bit of Detroit passing game exposure on the other side of the game. They are likely going to be behind in the game and forced to the air. Goff and St. Brown are certainly a fine GPP stack, or you can go with Wright as a value TE option.

MrTuttle: Josh Allen + D’Andre Swift – It looks like Beimfohr and I are on the same page for this slate which gives me even more confidence in my stance of being overweight on Swift. Allen + his pass-catchers are the obvious smash correlation here so if you’re planning on running it in GPPs you better be prepared to get different with the rest of your lineup. Swift is my favorite way to do that. I don’t think Swift will be “low-owned” but mostly because it’s a three-game slate and everyone with a pulse will grab some ownership. However, it seems quite obvious that Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the highest-owned bring-back for game stacks and I’d rather construct lineups with Swift as the main Detroit bring-back.

ebeimfohr: Josh Allen + D’Andre Swift – I don’t see a great way to fade the Bills stack here, but we can differentiate it a bit on the Lions’ side. Swift has been limited for a while now coming back from his injury, but the Lions have also been in positive game scripts for 3 weeks (3 wins), and if the Bills get out to a lead and force Detroit to throw, I think we see more Swift, despite projections hating him given his recent work.

Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?

Notorious: Adam Thielen & T.J. Hockenson – Honestly, I don’t feel great about these plays, but getting contrarian on a three-game slate is difficult. The Patriots like to put the clamps down on the opposing team’s best player. This has been a Bill Belichick staple throughout his coaching career. I would expect them to sell out to stop Justin Jefferson this week. If that’s the case, that should open up more targets for Adam Thielen and T.J. Hockenson. They are both big red zone weapons and have actually had nice target shares over the last three games.

STLCardinals84: Devin Singletary – We don’t have projected ownership as of the time I am writing this, but it’s tough to find a ton of sub-10% options on a three-game slate. My favorite way to differentiate GPP builds will be to fade Allen/Diggs in a few lineups and roll out Singletary in the event that Buffalo’s running game does some damage against the woeful Detroit defense. This works well in lineups where you have exposure to the DET passing game.

MrTuttle: T.J. Hockenson – Most Thankgsiving slates I like to take a hard stance at TE because most of the slates mirror this one with the TE position being “ok” but largely unattractive. If you go heavy on the one TE that finishes with the highest score then you put yourself in a good position to win (duh). Even in last week’s disaster of a loss to the Cowboys, Hockenson finished with 9 targets which makes that 28 total targets in his first three games with the Vikings. That’s pretty elite usage for a TE and if touchdown variance goes his way he could easily break the slate.

ebeimfohr: Brock Wright – I’ll stick to the Lions here. While Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the de facto runback on Bills stacks, TE is a great place to get unique. Wright has actually been the near full-time TE since the Hockenson trade, but the Lions have not been passing in positive game scripts. If/when that changes this week, we can get elevated opportunity for a low-owned punt TE.

How do you plan to beat the field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?

Notorious: The Bills stack will be very popular, but I’m hoping playing Josh Allen and Devin Singletary together will help me differentiate a little. And it’s the first game, so if it doesn’t work, I can use late swap to get off the chalk in the last two games.

STLCardinals84: Pick one of the good offenses and intentionally go underweight on that team. For me, it will be the Cowboys and Dak / Lamb in a game that could turn into a bit of a slog with the Giants trying to control the clock. I do like Schultz as a value TE option, but I’ll be underweight on the rest of the group.

MrTuttle: I typically take much more aggressive stances on these smaller slates than the larger main slates. I’ll narrow my player pool substantially and take big stances on lower-owned options like Swift and Hockenson.

ebeimfohr: It’s impossible to get away from the Bills/Lions game, but we can overstack the game with several Bills pieces with Josh Allen, and finding unique options on the Lions side.

What is your hot take for the week?

Notorious: Josh Allen and Devin Singletary combine for five touchdowns.

STLCardinals84: Devin Singletary rushes for 125 yards and two scores.

MrTuttle: TJ Hockenson tops 100 yards and scores twice.

ebeimfohr: At least 6 players from the Bills/Lions game are in the GPP winning build.

Image Credit: Imagn

This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Rank your three favorite players for optimal lineups, in order:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Josh Allen Saquon Barkley Amon-Ra St. Brown
STLCardinals84 Amon-Ra St. Brown Justin Fields Rhamondre Stevenson
MrTuttle David Montgomery (FD) / Dameon Pierce (DK) Alvin Kamara (FD) / Stefon Diggs (DK) Devonta Smith (FD) / CeeDee Lamb (DK)
Krayton David Montgomery (FD) / Rhamondre Stevenson (DK) Justin Fields Justin Fields
ebeimfohr David Montgomery Amon-Ra St. Brown CeeDee Lamb
squirrelpatrol David Montgomery (FD) / Rhamondre Stevenson (DK) CeeDee Lamb Josh Allen

Rank your three favorite players for large-field contests, in order, who are below 10% pOWN%:

About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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