NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 13 Main Slate

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Rank your three favorite players for optimal lineups, in order:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Samaje Perine Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson
MrTuttle Samaje Perine Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson
STLCardinals84 Amon-Ra St. Brown David Montgomery Garrett Wilson (DK) / Aaron Jones (FD)
Krayton Samaje Perine Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson
ebeimfohr Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Travis Etienne
Stevietpfl Josh Jacobs (DK) / Nick Chubb (FD) Keenan Allen (DK) / Amon-Ra St. Brown (FD) Travis Kelce
squirrelpatrol Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Aaron Jones (FD) / Travis Etienne (DK)

Rank your three favorite players for large-field contests, in order, who are below 10% pOWN%:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Tyreek Hill A.J. Brown Kenny Pickett
MrTuttle Tyreek Hill DJ Chark Jerick McKinnon
STLCardinals84 Ja’Marr Chase (if active) Travis Kelce Nick Chubb
Krayton Ja’Marr Chase Tyreek Hill Travis Kelce
ebeimfohr Nick Chubb DJ Chark Ja’Marr Chase
Stevietpfl Christian McCaffrey Tyreek Hill A.J. Brown
squirrelpatrol Nick Chubb Christian McCaffrey A.J. Brown

Who is your favorite salary relief option this week?

Notorious: Garrett Wilson
MrTuttle: Garrett Wilson
STLCardinals84: Garrett Wilson
Krayton: Garrett Wilson
ebeimfohr: Garrett Wilson
Stevietpfl: Christian Watson
squirrelpatrol: Zonovan Knight

What’s the best position to save salary on?

Notorious: WR
MrTuttle: WR
STLCardinals84: WR
Krayton: WR
ebeimfohr: WR
Stevietpfl: WR
squirrelpatrol: WR

Who is your favorite high salary DST to use this week?

Notorious: BAL
MrTuttle: BAL (FD) / SEA (DK)
STLCardinals84: BAL
Krayton: BAL
ebeimfohr: CLE
Stevietpfl: BAL
squirrelpatrol: CLE

Who is your favorite low salary DST to use this week?

Notorious: PIT
MrTuttle: ATL (FD) / PIT (DK)
STLCardinals84: PIT
Krayton: PIT
ebeimfohr: PIT
Stevietpfl: NYJ
squirrelpatrol: LAR

What player do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Travis Etienne
MrTuttle: D’Andre Swift
STLCardinals84: Travis Kelce
Krayton: Samaje Perine
ebeimfohr: Nick Chubb
Stevietpfl: Christian McCaffrey
squirrelpatrol: Travis Etienne

What player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Saquon Barkley
MrTuttle: Saquon Barkley
STLCardinals84: David Montgomery
Krayton: Davante Adams
ebeimfohr: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Stevietpfl: Davante Adams
squirrelpatrol: Deshaun Watson

What stack will you be most underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce
MrTuttle: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf
STLCardinals84: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews
Krayton: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf
ebeimfohr: Trevor Lawrence + Christian Kirk
Stevietpfl: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews
squirrelpatrol: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf

What team will you target players from the most compared to the field?

Notorious: JAC
MrTuttle: LAC
STLCardinals84: CIN
Krayton: CIN
ebeimfohr: KC
Stevietpfl: MIA
squirrelpatrol: SF

What team will you target players from the least compared to the field?

Notorious: NYG
MrTuttle: KC
STLCardinals84: BAL
Krayton: BAL
ebeimfohr: JAX
Stevietpfl: BAL
squirrelpatrol: SEA

What game will exceed its implied total by the most points this week?

Notorious: JAC/DET
MrTuttle: LAC/LV
STLCardinals84: TEN/PHI
Krayton: MIA/SF
ebeimfohr: KC/CIN
Stevietpfl: MIA/SF
squirrelpatrol: MIA/SF

What is your favorite player correlation and why?

Notorious: Travis Etienne + Amon-Ra St. Brown – This will likely be a popular duo, but is my favorite way to skinny stack this game. Just know that you will have to pair these two with some lower-owned plays in large-field tournaments. Etienne left last week’s game with an injury, but was cleared to return (though he never did) and has practiced this week. He has a good chance to see 20+ touches against the Lions, who are ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. From the Lions side, I will continue to target St. Brown. He has seen 49 targets over the last five games, which equates to a 32% target share from Jared Goff. The Jaguars have been decent against the run and have a bottom-three pass defense, which bodes well for St. Brown at home.

MrTuttle: Justin Herbert + Pass-catchers – Early indications are that this LAC/LV game isn’t being prioritized despite having one of the highest totals on the slate. Justin Herbert has been underwhelming at times this season and has a miserably low aDOT but I’m willing to look over those things due to matchup + expected passing volume. Despite the Charger’s passing game woes, they continue to throw the ball at an extremely high rate and I don’t expect that to change against a Raiders defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to the QB position this season. Keenan Allen is the easiest stack partner (especially on DK) but Austin Ekeler and the other guys are viable as well.

STLCardinals84: Joe Burrow + WRs – The Bengals are rolling right now, and they’re going to need to score to hang with the high-powered Chiefs. You know Ja’Marr Chase has had this game circled for a month for a full scale return, and I think he’s 100% now. Oh, and Chase also had 11 catches for 266 yards and three scores against this Chiefs team in last year’s meeting. Give me the Burrow to Chase stacks this week. If Chase happens to sit again, you can easily pivot to Higgins.

Krayton: Jue Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase / Tee Higgins – This game is one of my favorites on the slate, as we get an opportunity to see a repeat matchup of this game from the playoffs in January. Ja’Marr Chase should be back this week after being injured, and I am hoping this will lower his ownership, as his ceiling is extremely high, and in the two games that he played before getting hurt his stat line read 7/132/2 and 8/130/2. I even like going double stacks with both Higgins and Chase in the lineup. On the KC side, I love getting to Travis Kelce. This is an expensive stack, but one that can absolutely take down GPPs with a 52.5 total in a game that should be loaded with fantasy production.

ebeimfohr: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Travis Kelce – There are not a lot of instances where we get a game that has everything to make a game stack work in a DFS lineup combined with this kind of slate breaking upside. Ja’Marr Chase unlocks Joe Burrow and the Bengals offensive upside, and we know Travis Kelce can blow away the field at a horrible TE position. Getting an affordable QB with 40 point upside combined with a WR + TE in the game that can blow away the field is where I want to start most of my GPP teams.

Stevietpfl: Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill + Christian McCaffrey – First off, I know the risk here, and I know I’m going to be on an island with this stack. It’s an extremely expensive stack, and no one is going to play it. Hill is averaging 10.5 targets and a 31.2% target share. He also leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. Because of the tough defensive matchup, he’s going overlooked. Miami schemes plays for Hill, and he’s going to have opportunity in this game. This is also an opportunity for McCaffrey. Mitchell is out, and I don’t expect Davis-Price or Mason to take away from CMC here. With Deebo banged up, I think this is a massive ceiling spot for CMC.

squirrelpatrol: Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle + Deebo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey – This game has a point total of 46.5 which ranks behind four other games on the slate, but the explosive playmakers here mean if it goes over, it could go WAY over. Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and even Jeff Wilson all have rushing TDs over 40 yards this season, while Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Deebo Samuel (again) all have receiving TDs of 50+ yards. The long play possibilities are here in this one for a shootout.

Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?

Notorious: A.J. Brown – We currently have him projected for less than 6% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but Week 8 was a great example of the type of ceiling he still possesses (6/156/3). He’s obviously going against his former team, and it was pretty clear when he left that there was no love lost between him and the organization. He can’t exactly control how many targets he’ll get, but perhaps he’ll be in the ear of Jalen Hurts leading up to this game. Even if you don’t believe in narratives, he is facing a Titans team that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

MrTuttle: Jerick McKinnon – McKinnon did not practice early in the week with a “hamstring injury” but it sounds like the Chiefs were just being cautious with him as he was a full participant in Friday’s practice and is expected to be active on Sunday. I typically won’t dive as deep and recommend as fringe of a play as McKinnon but I do like him quite a bit for a couple of different reasons this week. First, he provides you inexpensive exposure to the highest team total on the slate. Isiah Pacheco will still get early-down work but I expect McKinnon to be on the field for all passing situations and the guy most used down the stretch if this game stays close. Second, he provides leverage off the similarly priced Zonovan Knight who is likely to see his ownership rise into the 20% range with news that Michael Carter is doubtful for Week 13. While many view Knight as a “safer” play than McKinnon, I’m in favor of taking the back with a defined role on a better offensive team, especially at greatly reduced ownership.

STLCardinals84: Travis Kelce – I’m slightly cheating because we have him at 10.8% on DK right now for ownership, but we’ll call that close enough. Assuming he stays at this level, he will be a great GPP option. Kelce has the ability to break this slate. The TE position is woefully thin right now thanks to a myriad of injuries, and Kelce continues to dominate production at the position. I plan on stacking this game up several ways, and exposure to Kelce is a must.

Krayton: Joe Mixon – In the lineups that I don’t have Burrow and Chase/Higgins, I will be going overweight on Joe Mixon. He is still questionable on Friday as I write this, but I will be utilizing either him or Samaje Perine, as Kansas City is a great matchup for RBs this year, as they allow the 4th most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing RBs at 12.6. We saw Mixon have a huge 5 TD game recently, and with his status up in the air, it appears more people will be focused on the receivers for Cincinnati. I think he makes a great contrarian play in a game environment that is one of the absolute best on the slate.

ebeimfohr: DJ Chark – I would say Ja’Marr Chase, but to talk about someone else, we’ll go with DJ Chark. He got back to a full time WR start last week, but he drew a terrible Bills matchup. He nearly missed a long TD (thanks Goff), and he’s both extremely cheap and strong leverage off the chalk WR in a high upside game.

Stevietpfl: Christian Watson – I talked about Hill and CMC above, so I’ll talk about another cheap WR I like this week. Watson has six touchdowns over the last three games and has quickly become Rodgers’ favorite redzone threat. Chicago has a terrible secondary and ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. I don’t expect the touchdowns to continue at this high rate, but I do like this matchup for Watson.

squirrelpatrol: Nick Chubb – The return of Deshaun Watson will be the story here, but it’s possible Cleveland won’t need to rely on their QB to win the game. Houston allows by far the most rushing yards per game in the NFL and Cleveland averages the fifth-most rushing yards per game. Chubb has the 2nd-most rushing TDs in the league this season, and it wouldn’t surprise if he got multiple scores in this one.

How do you plan to beat the field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?

Notorious: The goal is to get as much exposure to Travis Kelce as possible. It’s tough to find the cap space for him, which will really help lower his ownership in cash games and small-field tournaments. Paying up for Kelce naturally gives you a different roster construction than most.

MrTuttle: Spread out DST exposure. This is true every week but highlighted this week, as there isn’t a “free square” cheap defense like we’ve gotten the majority of the season.

STLCardinals84: I won’t be the only one stacking up the CIN/KC game, so we’ll have to get different beyond that. I like the idea of fading some of the chalkier value RB options in GPP builds. Dameon Pierce has been shut down over the past few weeks with opponents stacking the box and forcing Houston to the air (as well as Houston constantly falling behind). Montgomery has never been a consistent option. While both grade out well in projections, I think there’s definitely some bust potential at high ownership, and we can get leverage with other options in GPP builds.

Krayton: Since I will be playing a more popular game stack with KC/CIN, I like the idea of utilizing some cheaper RBs that aren’t carrying much ownership. Right now it appears David Montgomery and Dameon Pierce are a couple of the popular value backs and I have my eye on guys like Isiah Pacheco once again in the KC offense, and even though Jeff Wilson has a tough matchup against his old team in SF, he is the same price as Montgomery on FanDuel, and he’s just $5.9K on DK. With Mostert most likely back as well, Wilson is only projected for 5% ownership. I think guys like that will make my chalkier KC/CIN stacks unique.

ebeimfohr: I will be looking to fade the majority of the ownership in the Lions/Jags game. There are so many appealing pivots to every single player in that game, and within that game there are strong leverage plays (DJ Chark, Evan Engram, Marvin Jones, Swift?) that we can utilize to get a pretty big edge on the field that’s really gravitating to this game.

Stevietpfl: I like some low owned stacks, so I’ll be pairing them with some of the popular stacks in good spots.

squirrelpatrol: I’ll keep it simple this week – there are a handful of games with high point totals, and in multi-entry I’ll make sure I’m focusing on those games that I think can be shootouts. In single entry I’ll aim to take a piece from some of those games pairing it with any value from injuries.

What is your hot take for the week?

Notorious: A.J. Brown exacts his revenge against the Titans by racking up 150 yards and two touchdowns in a win.

MrTuttle: Jerick McKinnon racks up 100+ total yards and scores a touchdown.

STLCardinals84: Aaron Jones is the highest scoring RB on the slate.

Krayton: Ja’Marr Chase comes back and puts up the most fantasy points for a receiver with 200 yards and 2 touchdowns in a shootout in Cincinnati.

ebeimfohr: DJ Chark outscores Amon-Ra St Brown & Ja’Marr Chase scores 40 fantasy points.

Stevietpfl: Tyreek Hill goes for 200+ yards.

squirrelpatrol: The MIA/SF game goes for 80 total points with four TDs over 50 yards.

Image Credit: Imagn

This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Rank your three favorite players for optimal lineups, in order:

Analyst Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Notorious Amon-Ra St. Brown David Montgomery Garrett Wilson
MrTuttle Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Dalvin Cook (FD) / Josh Jacobs (DK)
STLCardinals84 Amon-Ra St. Brown David Montgomery Garrett Wilson (DK) / Aaron Jones (FD)
Krayton Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Aaron Jones (FD) / Travis Etienne (DK)
ebeimfohr Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Travis Etienne
Stevietpfl Josh Jacobs (DK) / Nick Chubb (FD) Keenan Allen (DK) / Amon-Ra St. Brown (FD) Travis Kelce
squirrelpatrol Amon-Ra St. Brown Garrett Wilson Aaron Jones (FD) / Travis Etienne (DK)

Rank your three favorite players for large-field contests, in order, who are below 10% pOWN%:

About the Author

  • John Britt (jmbwngfn)

  • One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.

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