NFL DFS First Look: Week 3

The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, DVOA rankings, adjusted sack rates, and adjusted line yards.

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NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team Home Team Vegas Line Over/Under Date Time Stadium
Titans at Jaguars TBD TBD Thursday 8:20 PM TIAA Bank Field
Falcons at Colts IND -1.5 47.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Lucas Oil Stadium
Ravens at Chiefs KC -5.5 52.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Arrowhead Stadium
Bengals at Bills BUF -6.0 44.0 Sunday 1:00 PM New Era Field
Broncos at Packers GB -7.0 43.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Lambeau Field
Lions at Eagles PHI -5.5 45.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
Dolphins at Cowboys DAL -22.5 47.5 Sunday 1:00 PM AT&T Stadium
Jets at Patriots NE -21.5 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Gillette Stadium
Raiders at Vikings MIN -9.0 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM U.S. Bank Stadium
Panthers at Cardinals ARI -2.0 44.5 Sunday 4:05 PM State Farm Stadium
Giants at Buccaneers TB -6.0 48.0 Sunday 4:05 PM Raymond James Stadium
Texans at Chargers LAC -3.0 48.5 Sunday 4:25 PM Dignity Health Sports Park
Saints at Seahawks SEA -4.5 45.0 Sunday 4:25 PM CenturyLink Field
Steelers at 49ers SF -6.5 43.5 Sunday 4:25 PM Levi’s Stadium
Rams at Browns LAR -3.0 47.5 Sunday 8:20 PM FirstEnergy Stadium
Bears at Redskins CHI -4.0 41.0 Monday 8:15 PM FedExField

DVOA Matchups (Updated through Week 2)

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart (from Football Outsiders) are for the defense listed in the “Matchup” column. These rankings can help identify favorable matchups for the offense listed in the first column.

Offense Spread Implied Total Matchup DVOA vs. PASS vs. RUN
Cowboys -22.5 35.0 Miami 32 32 24
Patriots -21.5 32.5 N.Y. Jets 6 6 11
Chiefs -5.5 28.8 Baltimore 9 11 6
Buccaneers -6.0 27.0 N.Y. Giants 31 31 25
Vikings -9.0 26.3 Oakland 23 27 4
Chargers -3.0 25.8 Houston 17 18 16
Eagles -5.5 25.5 Detroit 11 10 12
Rams -3.0 25.3 at Cleveland 10 8 20
Packers -7.0 25.0 Denver 24 26 15
49ers -6.5 25.0 Pittsburgh 29 30 10
Bills -6.0 25.0 Cincinnati 30 29 31
Seahawks -4.5 24.8 New Orleans 27 22 32
Colts -1.5 24.3 Atlanta 14 9 19
Ravens + 5.5 23.3 at Kansas City 16 12 17
Cardinals -2.0 23.3 Carolina 18 19 23
Texans + 3.0 22.8 at L.A. Chargers 26 25 26
Falcons + 1.5 22.8 at Indianapolis 19 15 30
Bears -4.0 22.5 at Washington 28 28 29
Browns + 3.0 22.3 Los Angeles 5 4 13
Panthers + 2.0 21.3 at Arizona 22 24 18
Giants + 6.0 21.0 at Tampa Bay 4 14 1
Saints + 4.5 20.3 at Seattle 13 13 9
Lions + 5.5 20.0 at Philadelphia 21 23 2
Bengals + 6.0 19.0 at Buffalo 12 7 27
Redskins + 4.0 18.5 Chicago 7 17 5
Steelers + 6.5 18.5 at San Francisco 2 2 7
Broncos + 7.0 18.0 at Green Bay 3 3 14
Raiders + 9.0 17.3 at Minnesota 15 16 8
Dolphins + 22.5 12.5 at Dallas 20 20 22
Jets + 21.5 11.0 at New England 1 1 3
Titans TBD TBD at Jacksonville 25 21 28
Jaguars TBD TBD Tennessee 8 5 21

Adjusted Sack Rates (Updated through Week 2)

Note: This table shows the adjusted sack rate (from Football Outsiders) of each defensive line and the opposing offensive line. The sack potential column helps spot the best matchups for the defense.

Defensive Line ASR Offensive Line ASR Defense Sack Potential
Cowboys 28 Dolphins 29 DAL 14
Patriots 6 Jets 26 NE 2
Chiefs 22 Ravens 11 KC 25
Buccaneers 27 Giants 6 TB 30
Vikings 12 Raiders 12 MIN 15
Chargers 29 Texans 32 LAC 13
Eagles 31 Lions 7 PHI 31
Rams 9 Browns 28 LAR 3
Packers 11 Broncos 16 GB 11
49ers 5 Steelers 4 SF 17
Bills 25 Bengals 24 BUF 17
Seahawks 13 Saints 13 SEA 15
Colts 3 Falcons 15 IND 6
Ravens 10 Chiefs 5 BAL 22
Cardinals 21 Panthers 18 ARI 20
Texans 14 Chargers 19 HOU 11
Falcons 17 Colts 23 ATL 10
Bears 7 Redskins 3 CHI 21
Browns 2 Rams 14 CLE 6
Panthers 23 Cardinals 22 CAR 17
Giants 16 Buccaneers 27 NYG 9
Saints 1 Seahawks 30 NO 1
Lions 18 Eagles 8 DET 24
Bengals 8 Bills 21 CIN 5
Redskins 30 Bears 17 WAS 27
Steelers 15 49ers 1 PIT 28
Broncos 32 Packers 25 DEN 23
Raiders 20 Vikings 9 OAK 25
Dolphins 26 Cowboys 2 MIA 31
Jets 24 Patriots 10 NYJ 28
Titans 4 Jaguars 20 TEN 4
Jaguars 19 Titans 31 JAC 6

Adjusted Line Yards (Updated through Week 2)

Note: This table shows the adjusted line yards (from Football Outsiders) of each defensive line and the opposing offensive line. The rush potential column helps spot favorable spots for the offense.

Offensive Line ALY Defensive Line ALY Offense Rush Potential
Cowboys 18 Dolphins 29 Cowboys 8
Patriots 9 Jets 6 Patriots 23
Chiefs 30 Ravens 1 Chiefs 32
Buccaneers 21 Giants 21 Buccaneers 16
Vikings 10 Raiders 5 Vikings 25
Chargers 8 Texans 16 Chargers 9
Eagles 26 Lions 24 Eagles 21
Rams 2 Browns 14 Rams 7
Packers 16 Broncos 22 Packers 10
49ers 5 Steelers 8 49ers 12
Bills 3 Bengals 27 Bills 1
Seahawks 28 Saints 32 Seahawks 11
Colts 13 Falcons 10 Colts 23
Ravens 15 Chiefs 28 Ravens 5
Cardinals 17 Panthers 19 Cardinals 15
Texans 4 Chargers 17 Texans 5
Falcons 27 Colts 30 Falcons 12
Bears 20 Redskins 18 Bears 21
Browns 24 Rams 23 Browns 18
Panthers 19 Cardinals 12 Panthers 26
Giants 1 Buccaneers 4 Giants 12
Saints 12 Seahawks 11 Saints 18
Lions 22 Eagles 2 Lions 29
Bengals 32 Bills 15 Bengals 28
Redskins 29 Bears 7 Redskins 30
Steelers 23 49ers 9 Steelers 27
Broncos 11 Packers 25 Broncos 3
Raiders 7 Vikings 26 Raiders 2
Dolphins 31 Cowboys 31 Dolphins 16
Jets 25 Patriots 3 Jets 30
Titans 6 Jaguars 20 Titans 3
Jaguars 14 Titans 13 Jaguars 18

Pace of Play (Updated through Week 2)

Note: This table shows the pace for each offense.

Offense Sec/Play Rank Sit. Neut. Rank Plays/Game Rank
Cowboys 30.6 27 30.8 12 63.5 15
Patriots 30.0 24 31.0 14 66.0 9
Chiefs 29.0 19 29.7 8 64.0 12
Buccaneers 30.0 26 31.5 18 62.0 19
Vikings 30.0 25 29.5 7 54.5 30
Chargers 30.7 29 34.6 31 60.5 23
Eagles 27.7 12 30.3 10 71.5 2
Rams 27.2 10 26.9 1 66.5 7
Packers 30.7 28 34.4 30 63.0 17
49ers 27.8 14 27.9 3 64.0 12
Bills 27.8 15 31.2 17 65.0 11
Seahawks 29.8 23 33.3 27 60.5 23
Colts 29.7 22 33.8 28 63.5 15
Ravens 31.4 31 30.9 13 72.5 1
Cardinals 22.2 2 27.5 2 68.0 5
Texans 28.9 16 29.7 9 61.0 20
Falcons 26.4 6 28.8 5 64.0 12
Bears 26.8 7 33.0 24 60.5 23
Browns 28.9 18 31.1 16 61.0 20
Panthers 22.0 1 28.9 6 68.5 4
Giants 24.6 4 28.8 4 66.0 9
Saints 27.8 13 30.8 11 61.0 20
Lions 28.9 17 32.4 21 69.0 3
Bengals 27.2 9 31.0 15 67.5 6
Redskins 27.3 11 34.1 29 56.5 27
Steelers 26.9 8 31.8 19 56.0 28
Broncos 26.0 5 33.3 26 66.5 7
Raiders 31.1 30 32.6 22 57.0 26
Dolphins 23.8 3 33.0 25 54.0 31
Jets 29.4 20 32.7 23 62.5 18
Titans 29.5 21 32.2 20 56.0 28
Jaguars 31.4 32 35.7 32 54.0 31

First Look Legend

TERM DESCRIPTION
DVOA Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking
vs. PASS DVOA pass defense ranking
vs. RUN DVOA ranking against the run
ASR Adjusted Sack Rate
ALY Adjusted Line Yards

First Look Tutorial Video

Color Coding

1) BLUE represents the “elite” category (top 25th percentile).
2) GREEN represents the “above-average” category (top 50th percentile).
3) YELLOW represents the “below-average” category (bottom 50th percentile).
4) RED represents the “poor” category (bottom 25th percentile).

Cover Image Credit: USAToday Sports Images

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • JSNyburg1

    Great information, always appreciate the hard work!

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Analyst

    • 71

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I’m getting a lot of questions on Twitter about the RB, WR1, WR2, and TE rankings. Football Outsiders has moved those behind the paywall this season, so we obviously can’t display those on RotoGrinders.

  • jbabtb11

    Were can we find them now that rotogrinders can’t publish them here?

  • jbabtb11

    Really dings our research Notorious. Can you help get those stats back or tell us where to find them ourselves? Please and thank you.

  • Othersideofthegame

    But where can you find them. I am a premium subscriber

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    I think you guys may have misread what Noto is saying. The site, Football Outsiders, has moved that information behind THEIR paywall. So we no longer can provide it here.

  • shakeNbake0810

    Is DVOA vs RB PA behind a paywall too or did you remove that from this article going forward? Or am I just missing it?

  • Mdonado27

    so to understand this. we pay for a rotogrinders subscription and people post shit on rotogrinders but in order to see stuff on rotogrinders we gotta through another paywall?

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Analyst

    • 71

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Mdonado27 said...

    so to understand this. we pay for a rotogrinders subscription and people post shit on rotogrinders but in order to see stuff on rotogrinders we gotta through another paywall?

    It’s not our stat, so our hands are tied here.

  • saltysellen

    there’s nothing here on the site worth investing in except maybe NBA but will see what walls are up next month for that sport

  • shakeNbake0810

    @Noto so we should just get football outsiders premium instead of RG premium?

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