The NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Rams vs. Saints
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Rams vs. Saints, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Rams vs. Saints
Week 16 is officially here, and we have a great weekend of football in store. There are 2 games on Saturday, 10 games on Sunday, and 3 games on Monday.
We plan to have plenty of content for each and every slate. As for Thursday night’s game, we have a battle between two potential playoff teams in the NFC. The Rams and Saints are both 7-7 on the season. The winner of this game will have a clear path to the postseason, while the loser will likely need to win out to have any chance. The Rams are coming off an easy win against the Commanders, while the Saints have rattled off back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Giants. The game currently features a spread of 4 points and a total of 46 points.
Key Injuries
Michael Thomas – Out
Los Angeles Rams Preview
When the Rams have been healthy, they have had one of the most explosive offenses in the league. If they can stay healthy the rest of the way, I like their chances to make the playoffs and potentially make some noise once they get there. Matthew Stafford lacks a high ceiling given the absence of a rushing floor, but he has topped 18 fantasy points in 4 straight games and has averaged 22 fantasy points during that stretch. This isn’t the best matchup around though, as the Saints are 8th in DVOA against the pass and 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. I love Stafford as a FLEX play, but I won’t be using him much at MVP or CPT.
The Rams are expected to have Tutu Atwell, but we can still expect most of the targets to funnel to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Over the last 3 games with both healthy, Kupp has caught 22-of-28 targets for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Nacua has caught 14-of-23 targets for 249 yards and a touchdown. Either player could break this slate, but the recent usage suggests Kupp is a tad ahead of Nacua in the pecking order of targets. Given the matchup, I’m not sure both can pay off their respective salaries. For that reason, I like the idea of using one or the other in most builds.
Demarcus Robinson has come on strong in recent weeks but will now have to split snaps with Atwell as the third receiver. We have Atwell projected slightly ahead of Robinson, and he’s nearly half the salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tyler Higbee hasn’t been a big part of the offense, but he’s seen at least 4 targets and has totaled at least 29 receiving yards in 3 straight games. He could be a sneaky target in this passing game, as the Saints have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Kyren Williams has turned into a league winner in season-long fantasy football. His usage is incredible, and the Rams stuck with him last week even after he lost two fumbles in the first half of the game. Since coming back from injury, he has seen 22, 24, 28, and 32 touches. Despite having several bad matchups during that stretch, he has averaged over 26 fantasy points per game. The Saints have a good defense as a whole but are 24th in DVOA against the run this season. Williams should be heavily involved regardless of the game script and is a great bet for 20+ touches once again. He’s my favorite MVP and CPT on this slate.
The Rams have a good offense, but their defense is lacking. They have only averaged 4.6 fantasy points per game this season and have averaged the 9th-fewest sacks per game. A touchdown could always pave a path to the optimal lineup, but I will be underweight on the defense. Kicker Luke Havrisik has made at least 2 field goals in each of the last 3 games.
New Orleans Saints Preview
Based on some rumors, Derek Carr isn’t really fitting in with his teammates in New Orleans. Perhaps it’s because he is constantly yelling at everyone. Based on watching the games, the fans don’t seem to be a big fan of him either. And based on his results, DFS players aren’t too happy with him. He’s been held under 12 fantasy points in 6 of 14 games this season. While he’s still viable for this showdown slate, there’s a clear path to fading him. If the touchdowns come on the ground or through Taysom Hill, Carr could easily end up with fewer than 15 fantasy points. He draws an average matchup against the Rams on Thursday night.
Chris Olave was forced to sit out last week’s game, but he is expected to suit up for this one. Michael Thomas is still on injured reserve, so he will miss at least one more game. Olave has been the clear WR1 in this offense, racking up a 24% target share and a 41% air yards share. The problem is that most of those air yards have been deemed uncatchable. Still, he deserves consideration in all formats and offers a higher ceiling than his quarterback. Rashid Shaheed is one of the most boom-or-bust players on the slate, as he’s just as likely to score 3 fantasy points as he is to score 20 fantasy points. He’s best suited as a tournament play.
A.T. Perry, Keith Kirkwood, and Lynn Bowden will round out the wide receiver room. We have Bowden projected the best out of the three, but none of them are particularly exciting plays against the Rams. Juwan Johnson is technically the TE1 for the Saints, but Hill tends to take away targets at the position. Additionally, New Orleans decided to bring in Foster Moreau, who has been getting a handful of snaps each game. If targeting any of the tight ends, I prefer Hill. We know he’s going to get a decent number of rushing attempts, and he seems to have a knack for finding the end zone in these primetime games.
After Jamaal Williams got more carries than Alvin Kamara in Week 14, the latter had twice as many carries as the former in Week 15. Kamara has had a high floor all season. He has scored at least 11 fantasy points in every game and has topped 20 fantasy points in 4 games. He’s a good bet for 15 carries and 5+ targets each week. While the Rams have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, they are a mediocre run defense. Williams isn’t cheap enough to warrant consideration in small-field tournaments. He will need a touchdown and potentially a decent game on the ground to find his way into the optimal lineup.
I’m not putting much stock into the fact that the Saints’ defense has scored 35 fantasy points over the last 2 games. They were both at home, and they were against the likes of Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young. I’ll let others chase that production. Kicker Blake Grupe is one of the safer plays on the Saints in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
In general, I plan to have more exposure to the Rams than I do to the Saints. This is not because they are favored and playing at home, but because they have a very concentrated offense. We know the ball is going to Williams, Kupp, and Nacua. When it comes to the Saints, we can’t even feel good about their quarterback because he often gets taken out of the game when they get near the goal line. I am going to get as much exposure as possible to the big four on the Rams. With that said, I will be looking to use a max of one with Kupp and Nacua on most builds. This is due to both the price and the matchup.
Rams-Saints DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 21.33 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.90 | $16,000 | 1.33 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 19.38 | $10,800 | $16,200 | 1.79 | $15,000 | 1.29 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 17.30 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.73 | $15,500 | 1.12 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 16.92 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.76 | $12,000 | 1.41 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | WR | 16.73 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.52 | $14,500 | 1.15 |
| Derek Carr | NO | QB | 14.51 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.61 | $14,000 | 1.04 |
| Chris Olave | NO | WR | 14.10 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.64 | $12,500 | 1.13 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | TE | 8.78 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.33 | $10,000 | 0.88 |
| Lucas Havrisik | LAR | K | 8.33 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.74 | $9,000 | 0.93 |
| Blake Grupe | NO | K | 7.55 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.64 | $8,500 | 0.89 |
| Rashid Shaheed | NO | WR | 7.46 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.07 | $9,500 | 0.79 |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | 6.79 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.17 | $7,500 | 0.91 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 6.57 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.73 | $9,500 | 0.69 |
| Saints | NO | DST | 6.41 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.89 | $9,000 | 0.71 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 6.35 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.27 | $7,500 | 0.85 |
| Demarcus Robinson | LAR | WR | 5.10 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 0.94 | $8,500 | 0.60 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | RB | 4.92 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.17 | $7,000 | 0.70 |
| Lynn Bowden | NO | WR | 4.81 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.60 | $6,500 | 0.74 |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 4.56 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.14 | $8,000 | 0.57 |
| A.T. Perry | NO | WR | 2.38 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 0.74 | $6,500 | 0.37 |
| Royce Freeman | LAR | RB | 2.00 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.77 | $7,000 | 0.29 |
| Keith Kirkwood | NO | WR | 0.92 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.38 | $6,000 | 0.15 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 0.84 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 0.38 | $6,000 | 0.14 |
| Foster Moreau | NO | TE | 0.57 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0.29 | $5,500 | 0.10 |
| Jimmy Graham | NO | TE | 0.53 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.33 | $6,000 | 0.09 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Taysom Hill: $6,600 DK / $10,000 FD
Hill didn’t play against the Panthers in Week 14 and only had 1.5 fantasy points in Week 15. Very few will want to pay a premium for a player who is not guaranteed many touches. I expect him to be more involved this week. He has at least 2 receptions in 4 of his last 5 games and has 4 games this season with at least 9 rushing attempts. Also, it seems like he plays his best under the bright lights. If and when he scores a touchdown, you won’t find me complaining on Twitter with half of the DFS community.
Rams vs. Saints Player Pick’em
Season record: 31-16
28-8 over the last 36 games
Chris Olave more than 62.5 receiving yards (1.79x) – Sleeper
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. I thought our Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving prop was dead, but he caught a long touchdown with less than 30 seconds in the game. That’s another win for the props, which makes the record over the last 36 games a ridiculous 28-8. Let’s keep it going tonight with Olave more than 62.5 receiving yards. He’s had an interesting season where he’s topped 85 receiving yards in 7 games and has been held under 60 receiving yards in 6 games. He doesn’t have a single game with anywhere between 58 and 85 yards. This brings the alternate numbers into play as well. The Rams have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, and based on the spread, the Saints might be forced to air it out more than usual in this game.
Image Credit: Getty Images