NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 10
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 10
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Tony Pollard + Cowboys D/ST – Since the bye week, the Cowboys have been a pass-heavy offense, and it has worked wonders for the production of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Pollard has struggled in those two games, but it’s not like he hasn’t been involved. He had 13 touches against the Rams and 15 touches against the Eagles. The Cowboys do not want to go the rest of the season without being able to run the ball, and I expect them to establish it early and often against the Giants, who are 28th in DVOA against the run and 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. They are also 16-point home favorites against a quarterback named Tommy DeVito. The defense should have plenty of sacks, and Pollard should have plenty of running lanes.
squirrelpatrol: Tony Pollard + Dallas D/ST – I never like playing the highest-owned defense, but this week I might have to make an exception. The Giants are down to their 3rd-string QB, and Tommy DeVito has already taken 8 sacks in very limited action. The Cowboys are 17.5-point favorites, and while fear of the blowout may keep ownership down, Dallas will have to score somehow to make that happen. After Dak Prescott has thrown for 7 TDs the past two games, I’m thinking this is the week the running game puts more of the points on the board.
Krayton: Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley and/or Christian Kirk + Christian McCaffrey – We have not seen a ceiling game out of Lawrence, however, I like his opportunity to have a big game this week in a game environment with a nice total at 45 and a close spread. I could see this game going back and forth, and I fully expect Lawrence to be throwing quite a bit in a competitive game. Ridley and Kirk are very cheap and pair nicely with Lawrence. On the San Francisco side, I love paying up for CMC, as he just gets so many opportunities to score and put up big numbers in this offense. I don’t expect many people to target this game, and I think it has sneaky upside at extremely low projected ownership.
ebeimfohr: Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown – The return of Kyler unlocks Hollywood Brown for our DFS lineups, and we won’t be seeing him at these prices again. Hollywood was an awesome fantasy asset prior to Kyler’s injury in 2022, accumulating a 26% target share and 40% of team air yards. He has shown a huge ceiling with his downfield play dating all the way back to these two’s days at Oklahoma together. Kyler should be back to 100%, as there’s zero reason for the Cardinals to play him at anything less than full strength this season. Plus, they draw a Falcons defense that is ravaged by injuries and just got dominated by an offense without Justin Jefferson and a QB who hadn’t even practiced with the team yet.
Stevietpfl: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Terry McLaurin – Washington is 29th in DVOA against the pass this season and 29th in overall DVOA. Geno is still priced in the value range on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This is a fantastic matchup for him at home, and the running game is banged up. I’m hoping we get a big Geno game, and I’m hoping with both Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba banged up, Metcalf has a monster weekend. McLaurin has at least 7 targets in four straight games. In that span, he’s averaging 76.8 yards per game and has accounted for 27.4% of the team’s total yards. Sam Howell is averaging 39.2 passing attempts per game, which is the most in the NFL this season.
eys819: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf – Geno has seen some regression from his breakout last season, but that is baked into the price now. The Seahawks get an excellent matchup at home with the Commanders, who have allowed the 6th-most passing yards per game in the league this season. Metcalf is the preferred stacking partner for me, but I will certainly have double stacks with Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba as well. Metcalf has a slight edge over Lockett in terms of target share and air yards share, and he looks to be less popular. Metcalf has been banged up this season and has not flashed the same ceiling as we have seen in the past, but I think this is a great spot for him to go nuts.
Bobby Gomes: Keenan Allen + Amon-Ra St. Brown – The DET/LAC total is the highest on the main slate, sitting at 48.5 points. This game should play fast, as the Chargers have allowed the 3rd-most passing yards in the NFL. Couple that with both offenses being condensed, and I’ll pull two of the highest-targeted, most efficient WRs from the same game. This duo can get us between 50-60 FPTS with ease, and they both are coming in under-owned on a slate with enough offensive firepower to keep their ownership depressed.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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