NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 11
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 11
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown + Devin Singletary – You can certainly swap out Brown for Trey McBride in this stack, but that will be much higher owned. In fact, that might be the start to many cash game lineups. I like using Brown instead to get a little different. He only saw 4 targets in his first game with Murray under center, but the two developed chemistry while De’Andre Hopkins was out last season. Murray looked tremendous in his first start and was scrambling when he needed to. His rushing gives him such a high floor, and I like the matchup against the Texans, who are 25th in dropback EPA this season. My favorite bring-back is Singletary, who is cheap and coming off of his best game of the season. He turned 32 touches into 161 yards and a touchdown. This week, he’s a home favorite against a bottom-5 run defense.
squirrelpatrol: Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle – We’re far enough into the season to get great defensive splits on how teams perform against the run and the pass, but sometimes we should just stop at the top-level numbers. The Dolphins are averaging the most points per game (31.7) and the most passing yards per game (287.4), and they have the highest implied team total on the slate (29.5). Their QB is seeing less than 8% projected ownership on both sites. Tyreek leads the league in receiving yards and receiving TDs, and Waddle has averaged 8.6 targets per game over the last 5 games, with 3 TDs in that span.
Krayton: Justin Fields + DJ Moore + Amon-Ra St. Brown – Fields looks to be back this week, and that’s a big boost for Moore who averages 10 more fantasy points per game with Fields as the starting QB. When looking at our Optimal Stack Tool, Fields is hitting the optimal 7.44% of the time on FanDuel with only 7.50% ownership. He always carries big rushing upside, and we have seen the Fields/Moore pairing put up some big games already this season. We have a 48 total in this game, and the Bears most likely will be playing from behind, forcing them to pass. On the other side, I love ASB, who just keeps putting up great numbers in this Detroit offense. Detroit has the 2nd-highest implied team total (28.75), and ASB should be a big part of Detroit’s success.
ebeimfohr: Kyler Murray + Marquise Brown – The return of Kyler to the Cardinals’ offense unlocks most of their weapons, but no one more so than his college buddy Hollywood. Kyler looked as good as ever in his first game back, and he showed his rushing upside with nearly 10 fantasy points on the ground. They tried to get the connection with Hollywood going early, but they just couldn’t connect, including a long touchdown that went just off Hollywood’s fingertips. As we saw last season with this pair, big games are coming, and a potential shootout with the Texans looks like a great spot for the first one in 2023.
eys819: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Cooper Kupp – Geno is coming off his best performance of the season last week against Washington. Metcalf led the team with 12 targets, but he fell 2 yards short of 100 yards and again failed to score a touchdown. He has scored just twice this season despite trailing only 4 receivers in the entire league in end-zone targets (one of them being teammate Tyler Lockett). The Seahawks are generally a team that needs to be pushed to put up ceiling performances, and there is no better player to do that than Kupp. It has been a rough stretch for Kupp, but he is expected to get Matthew Stafford back this week. The price tag is very reasonable, and fellow wideout Puka Nacua is battling a knee injury.
Bobby Gomes: Kyler Murray or C.J. Stroud + pass catchers + Houston weapons – The ARI/HOU game has the highest total on the slate (48.5), and the spread is close. A beautiful, weather-proof atmosphere for both teams. Murray had 6 rushes last week, giving us that added rushing equity we desire from a QB. Stroud is also firmly in play at a few extra bucks, and I’ll have exposure to both. Devin Singletary had 30+ touches last week and is still cheap. Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown are all questionable. Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are the clear weapons and beneficiaries. On the Cardinals, Marquise Brown is due for a splash week, Trey McBride is firmly in play, Michael Wilson is a great salary-saver, and they will have James Conner to help balance the offense.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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