NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 4
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 4
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase – Look, I know Burrow isn’t at full strength and doesn’t have much mobility in the pocket, but everything sets up so well for the Bengals passing attack. The Titans are the biggest pass-funnel matchup in the NFL. We’ve seen the Saints, Chargers, and Browns all turn to a pass-heavy game plan against Tennessee, and I expect the Bengals to do the same. This is already a team that doesn’t mind abandoning the run, as evidenced by the 49 pass attempts from Burrow on Monday night against the Rams. It was encouraging to see them play almost exclusively from shotgun, and it’s also encouraging that they are playing Chase in the slot at a career-high rate (32%). All we need is a little pushback from the Titans offense, and we should get 40+ pass attempts from Burrow.
squirrelpatrol: Justin Field + Javonte Williams – Fields is over $1,000 cheaper on both sites than he was to start the season and is playing at home against a defense that just gave up 70 points last week. Williams is just the 27th-most expensive RB on FanDuel and the 20th-most expensive on DraftKings. Denver has given up the most yards per game this season, while Chicago has given up the 4th-most yards per game. The game total here doesn’t jump off the page, but it doesn’t have to for these players to return outstanding value, and we know the upside is there as well.
Krayton: Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + Adam Thielen – There are many game stacks I like, including the MIA/BUF game. However, give me Cousins, who has passing attempts of 44/44/50 in the first three games. Even though the Vikings have yet to pick up a win, we know Cousins will be throwing the ball often and that Jefferson will continue to see double-digit targets. Although Jefferson only has 1 TD on the season, he is still putting up big numbers, and I think we see a big game from him this week. On the other side, you can bet Thielen is out for revenge against his old team and will be looking to continue his hot start to the season. He is one of the top WR values, and he gets a great matchup against the Vikings’ defense. I will be looking to add secondary pieces of the MIA/BUF game with this stack.
ebeimfohr: Puka Nacua + Zack Moss – The Rams are in the perfect bounce-back spot against a vulnerable Colts secondary, but they’ve been pretty stout against the run. Kyren Williams is a true workhorse and is probably matchup-proof, but pivoting to a different version of this game is my favorite way to play tournaments. You can pivot to another shocking workhorse at the exact same price on DraftKings in Moss, while you focus in on Nacua and the Rams pass game on the other side.
Stevietpfl: Russell Wilson + Courtland Sutton + DJ Moore – This game features two of the worst defenses in the NFL, and it’s going overlooked because of bad offensive play. The Bears are allowing 288.3 passing yards per game, while Denver is allowing 291.7 passing yards per game. Javonte Williams looks to be the popular option for Denver, but I want to be overweight on Wilson/Sutton. Sutton has run a route on 80.5% of drop-backs and has a 22.1% target share. Justin Fields has been awful this season, and if he can’t do it against this defense, I’m out. Moore has 32.3% of the team yards for the Bears and seems to have the highest ceiling in this passing game. I’ll pair my Denver stacks with Moore, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet.
eys819: Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + T.J. Hockenson + DJ Chark – The Vikings are not projecting to be all that popular, and the pricing of the premium double-stack will push the field away from this particular build. Cousins is throwing at the highest rate in the league and has proven he can support multiple pass-catchers. Jefferson continues to see an elite target share, and Hockenson leads the league in targets among tight ends. Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen are popular values, and that should leave Chark as the forgotten man. He saw an impressive 11 targets last week, and many of them were down the field, where this Vikings defense is vulnerable.
Bobby Gomes: The Bills/Dolphins game has all the ingredients of a shootout. Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs are going to be popular, but Devon Achane, Raheem Mostert, and James Cook are all projected to be less than 6% owned. Using these three running backs in stacks with a combination of Allen, Tua, Diggs, and Hill is a beautiful way to get different and crank up the variance.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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