NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 5
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Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 5
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Skinny stacks from the KC/MIN game. We all know that Patrick Mahomes is great, but he really only has one reliable pass catcher at the moment (Travis Kelce). You can certainly pair these two, but then it’s really hard to bring back the stack with Justin Jefferson. Instead, I don’t mind using Mahomes as a solo play from the Chiefs and bringing it back with Jefferson or T.J. Hockenson. I also like doing the same thing with Kelce. Rather than wasting all of my salary cap on a full stack, I will be doing skinny stacks with Mahomes/Jefferson, Mahomes/Hockenson, and Kelce/Jefferson. I might slip in a Rashee Rice share with my Mahomes teams, but I’m not sure he has enough upside to truly make the week’s optimal lineup.
squirrelpatrol: De’Von Achane + Darren Waller – Achane has seen both his price and ownership rise significantly since the start of the season, and while there’s a risk of buying high here, there’s also a risk that this is the lowest price he’ll be for the rest of the season. Achane ranks 6th in the NFL in total rushing yards, and each of the players ranked above him have played one more game than the Dolphins rookie. He’s also averaging 11.4 yards per attempt through his first 27 rushes – meaning his next 27 attempts could go for zero yards and he’d still be averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. On the other side of this game, Darren Waller faces a Miami defense allowing the 8th-most receiving yards per game and has upside at a weak TE position.
Krayton: Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson + Travis Kelce – This is the game I have the most interest in, and my early builds are over-stacking this game. Jefferson just continues to put up big numbers every week, and outside of last week’s game versus Carolina, Cousins has been throwing the ball a lot. This is the highest total on the slate, and with the KC side, my favorite two plays are Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco’s rushing attempts have increased signifiicantly each week, and he had over 100 yards on 20 rushing attempts in his last game. He will have another opportunity to have a big game against the Vikings, and he is still too cheap on both sites. I think this is the game we see Kelce explode, and I like spending up at the TE spot.
ebeimfohr: Daniel Jones + Tyreek Hill – Obviously, these two are on opposite sides of their matchup, but their ceiilngs are directly correlated. We know Tyreek can wreck any defense for a huge fantasy outing, and the Dolphins should put up points on the lackluster Giants defense. If (or when) we get a couple big plays from Tyreek, it’s going to push Jones into comeback (or maybe survival) mode. That has been bad so far this season for Jones, but the Dolphins defense has been worse than his matchups to date. They’ve been shredded all season, and they don’t offer the same pass rush that has crushed the Giants offense. Jones is the Giants offense, and this game-script that creates his ceiling pairs very nicely with a huge Tyreek game.
Stevietpfl: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Marquise Brown – Arizona ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass, and they’re allowing 263 passing yards per game. With Tee Higgins dealing with a rib injury, Chase is the prime target in this offense. He has a 27% target share, and he’s run a route on 96% of drop-backs for the Bengals. After a slow start, Chase has 19 catches over the last two games. Brown has become the focal point of the Arizona passing game. He has a 26% target share, and he has at least 7 targets in three of the last four games. Arizona has faced some tough defenses, but they get a bump in a better matchup against a middle-of-the-road Bengals pass defense.
eys819: Isiah Pacheco + TJ Hockenson – I love the massive leverage you can get with this correlation. Most of the field will look to Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce for their Chiefs exposure and Justin Jefferson for their Vikings exposure. If Pacheco can run in a couple touchdowns, he limits the ceiling of the KC passing attack. Hockenson outscoring Travis Kelce at the TE position would also gain you serious leverage on the field, and a big game from Hock could also limit Jefferson’s ceiling. I want exposure to all these players, but Pacheco and Hockenson are the two I will be most overweight on.
Bobby Gomes: Travis Kelce + Justin Jefferson – The KC/MIN game has the highest point total on the main slate, sitting at 53. Multiple pieces of both offenses are firmly in play, but the Kelce-JJ combo presents a ceiling close to the clouds, permitting the game flow and pace align. Similar to the BUF/MIA game last week, the running game for both teams is also a good way to get different. Alexander Mattison and Isiah Pacheco are both getting close to 20 touches per game but don’t appear to be projecting for too much ownership.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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