NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 6
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 6
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Gardner Minshew + Michael Pittman + Jaguars bring-back – In my opinion, Minshew is the best backup quarterback in the NFL. He catches his former team at an ideal time, as they return from a two-game stretch in London and now have two games in the span of five days. The Jaguars have been a pass-funnel matchup each of the last two seasons, and Minshew is very affordable. I like pairing him with Pittman, who has had his two biggest games this season with Minshew under center (one against the Jaguars). He has solid target (27%) and air yards (29%) shares and a nice matchup. You can bring back this cheap stack with Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, or Evan Engram.
squirrelpatrol: Tua Tagovailoa + Jaylen Waddle + Raheem Mostert or Salvon Ahmed – The Dolphins have a 30.5 implied point total, which is 10% higher than the next-closest team (Rams) and almost 25% higher than the next team (Jaguars). They have averaged a league-high 36.2 points per game and are at home facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 5th-most points per game. I’ll be fitting Dolphins into my lineups wherever I can and figuring out the rest later – possibly for the rest of the season.
Krayton: Justin Fields + DJ Moore + Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson – Fields and the Bears got off to a terrible start to the season, as there weren’t many positive takeaways from their first three games. Even though they are not a good football team, I love the upside and tournament-winning ability that Fields gives us with his rushing upside, and he has gotten very comfortable with Moore as his go-to receiver. There is a huge correlation to both Fields and Moore’s success finding a rhythm, as they both have put up great numbers the last two weeks. Fields had 11 rushing attempts last week, and now he gets the VIkings, who don’t have a great defense. With Justin Jefferson out, I like getting exposure to Addison or Hockenson, as there are a lot of targets to spread around without Jefferson. Not to mention, Chicago is 31st in the league in DVOA against the pass, setting up a great opportunity for both pass catchers.
ebeimfohr: Desmond Ridder + Kyle Pitts – We have cheap running backs on the slate, but if we really want to get access to the superstar WRs with nuclear upside, we do need to dip down a little bit further with some cheap stacks, and I’m going back to the Ridder/Pitts well once again. It paid off last week, and the pricing is super cheap yet again (especially on DK) in a juicy matchup with a woeful Commanders pass defense. Ridder and the Falcons are a roller coaster, but we saw the upside with Ridder last week throwing for 300 yards and rushing for a TD. Pitts has one of the highest upside profiles of any TE in the entire league, but he’s not priced that way, and the field is still worried enough about the inconsistency that we can get reasonable ownership until the huge game comes.
Stevietpfl: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase – Chase and Burrow are coming off a monster week, and they draw a fantastic matchup against the Seahawks this weekend. Seattle is ranks 25th in DVOA and they’re allowing 305 passing yards per game, which is the second most in the NFL. With Higgins still not 100%, Chase should continue to be the main focus in this offense. It’s a tough matchup for Mixon and Burrow looks close to 100%. Chase has at least 8 targets in every game this season, and 43 targets over the last three games.
eys819: Trevor Lawrence + Calvin Ridley + Michael Pittman – The Jaguars return home to Jacksonville after spending the last two weeks in London. They get a matchup with the Colts, who have allowed the 3rd-most passing yards in the league this season. Lawrence topped 300 yards for the first time this season last week, with 122 of those yards going to Ridley. Ridley leads the Jags in aDOT and air yards, and he ranks 2nd behind Christian Kirk in target share. Gardner Minshew is filling in for the injured Anthony Richardson on the other side of this game. He targeted Pittman 11 times when he started Week 3 against Baltimore. This stack has the potential for loads of volume and upside, with all three players priced in the mid-range.
Bobby Gomes: Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp – The Rams have the 2nd-highest implied team total on the slate (28) and are now at full strength offensively. Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Higbee are all in play with Stafford. Van Jefferson has moved on, making the receiving corps thinner but not as condensed as we’d like. However, Kupp is BACK, and the 10-15 weekly targets are on the horizon as displayed in his return in Week 5. The Stafford-Kupp combo is a shade beneath the Tua-Hill pairing, and there is a discount.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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