NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 7
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 7
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews – I will have plenty of SEA/ARI stacks this week, but my favorite correlation is Jackson to Andrews. We haven’t seen the air raid that was promised to us when the Ravens brought in Todd Monken, but Jackson continues to be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. His rushing prop is well over 50 yards this week, and he has averaged double-digit rushing attempts since the J.K. Dobbins injury. The Lions have a good defense as a whole, but they do not defend tight ends well. They have allowed the 3rd-most receptions and the 4th-most receiving yards to the position this season. You can bring this stack back with Jahmyr Gibbs on FD or Amon-Ra St. Brown on DK.
squirrelpatrol: Cleveland QB + Amari Cooper + Jerome Ford – The Browns have significant injury questions on offense this week, but that could lead to muted ownership in a relatively good game environment. The Colts have allowed the 7th-most yards per game and the 9th-most points per game in the NFL, and this game will be played indoors without weather concerns. The Browns’ 21.75 implied point total is actually above the midpoint on the slate, and their players are all attractively priced. Deshaun Watson is questionable for the game but I’d play either him or P.J. Walker, and Jerome Ford should get only more value if Kareem Hunt (Questionable) misses the game.
Krayton: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett – The Seahawks are in one of their best matchups of the season as Geno gets to face Arizona, who is 31st in pass DVOA. The Seahawks also grade out in the top 10 for seven out of eight offensive categories according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). They are 4th overall on PFF for Pass Routes, which lines up great for both Metcalf and Lockett. I will also be including Kenneth Walker in some of my Geno lineups to try to capture as much of the Seattle offense as I can. Arizona does not have any cornerbacks that can match up with Metcalf and Lockett, and they both grade out as good plays when looking at WR/CB matchups this week.
ebeimfohr: Cooper Kupp + Diontae Johnson – We have a game with two mediocre defenses and two target hogs at WR, and we’ll never get one of them at this price again. Diontae has been full practice this week in his return from the IR, and the Steelers need him in the worst way. With the Rams RB issues, they should take to the air frequently, and that should lead to a slate-breaking level of targets for Kupp. If they can put some points on the board, it can drive the Steelers to the air, which will lead to a ton of targets for Diontae against a Rams pass defense that can be vulnerable.
Stevietpfl: Jordan Love + Christian Watson – Green Bay is coming off a bye week and draws a fantastic matchup against the Denver Broncos. Denver ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass and allows the 2nd-most passing yards per game. Watson was eased back into action in Week 4 but ran a route on 70.6% of the drop-backs in Week 5. He tied Luke Musgrave with the highest target rate and was the first read 28.6% of the time. This is one of my favorite combos on this slate, and I plan on being overweight on it. I think you can pair Musgrave if you want to double stack, and I’ll run it back with some Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy teams.
eys819: Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Amon-Ra St. Brown – The Baltimore pieces are underpriced considering both players could easily be the top scorer at their respective position. Lamar is priced as QB4 on both sites and he has more rushing upside than anyone at the position. He has at least nine attempts in four of six games and has four rushing TDs this season. Andrews is priced as TE2 on both sites, but comes at a significant discount to top option Travis Kelce. On the other side, Detroit is expected to get Jahmyr Gibbs back from injury, but are also expected to be without workhorse RB David Montgomery. It is unlikely they lean on Gibbs for a massive workload in his first game back, which means Jared Goff should be throwing a bunch. Amon-Ra St. Brown is his favorite target by a wide margin with a 27.4% target share.
Bobby Gomes: Geno Smith + Kenneth Walker + DK Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett – The Seahawks are -8 against the Cardinals and represent the 3rd-highest implied team total (26.25) in Week 7. The Cardinals are 31st in pass defense DVOA, and Geno projects as a top-5 QB option on the main. Walker has one of the highest raw projections at RB. I’ll be using Metcalf (questionable) and Lockett (questionable) as natural leverage with Walker on different builds. Marquise Brown is too cheap again and will be the run-back.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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