NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 9
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Jalen Hurts + A.J. Brown + CeeDee Lamb – This stack is not cheap, but it’s certainly doable given all of the value available. The injuries keep rolling in as of Friday afternoon, so even more value might open up by Sunday morning. The Cowboys have a good defense, but Hurts has topped 20 fantasy points in seven straight games. He can get it done through the air and on the ground. I like pairing him with Brown, who has topped 130 receiving yards in six straight games. I like bringing the stack back with Lamb, who is coming off of his best game of the season. The Cowboys are at their best offensively when they are force-feeding him the ball, and for what it’s worth, the Eagles are dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season.
squirrelpatrol: Mac Jones + Demario Douglas + Rhamondre Stevenson + Patriots D/ST – The Commanders raised the white flag and entered evaluation mode this week, trading away two of their 1st-round picks on defense from the past five years. The defense was already allowing the 4th-most yards per game in the NFL, and now they’re missing some of their most talented personnel. Demario Douglas is now the top receiver for the Pats and is underpriced, Rhamondre Stevenson is underpriced as a home favorite RB who catches passes, and if Douglas is still returning punts, they both correlate with the best value defense on the slate. Add in Mac Jones at minuscule projected ownership, and you’ve got my favorite onslaught correlation.
Krayton: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb + A.J. Brown – We finally saw Dak and the Cowboys have a huge passing game last week, with Dak throwing for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns. While the Eagles are one of the toughest matchups for opposing RBs, they aren’t very good against the pass. Tony Pollard is going to have a tougher matchup, so I see Dak looking for Lamb early and often once again. Lamb is coming off a 14-target game against the Rams, while scoring 2 TDs and racking up 158 receiving yards. I will also look to get TE Jake Ferguson and even Pollard into my lineups as well this week. Pollard does have a tough matchup, however, his price is very attractive on both sites, and I actually like stacking Dak + Lamb + Pollard to get different this week.
ebeimfohr: Saquon Barkley + Giants D/ST – I don’t have one specific QB stack that I love significantly more than the rest, so I’m going to a RB-D/ST correlation. This slate is so insanely gross, especially at RB, that Saquon’s massive workload is super valuable. Of course, the Giants have been putrid, but that is keeping Saquon’s pOWN% in check despite being the one true workhorse on the slate. He also draws a matchup with a Raiders team who just fired their coach and benched their QB, plus they have been absolutely shredded by RBs the last two weeks against the Bears and Lions. The Giants defense got worse at the deadline, but they’ve been more stout than perceived, and they are the cheapest D/ST on DK against a rookie QB, bad offensive line, and brand new offensive coordinator.
Stevietpfl: Baker Mayfield + Chris Godwin + Nico Collins – This slate is turning chalky fast, and I’m looking for ways to get different. This game stands out to me on both sides, and I want to be overweight on it. Houston ranks 24th in DOVA against the pass, and they’re graded 26th in pressuring the quarterback on PFF. Tampa has the #1 pass-blocking offensive line this season. Mayfield should have time to make plays, and I think he has the ceiling to have a big game. I like a lot of the chalkier plays, and I’m hoping this stack is way to get different. I’ll have multiple variations of this stack with both quarterbacks and double-stacks, including White with a pass catcher.
eys819: Taylor Heinicke + Bijan Robinson + Kyle Pitts – Atlanta is indoors at home, with a matchup against a rookie QB making his first career start. They will be without Drake London and his team-leading target share (21.7%). I expect Robinson and Pitts both to see increased usage in the passing game. Pitts has run just 12% of his routes in-line, so he is essentially a WR but fills a TE position in our DFS lineups. Robinson has run 40% of his routes from a WR position (13.5% out wide and 26.6% from the slot). This stack is extremely affordable and lets you spend up at other spots in your lineup.
Bobby Gomes: Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb + D’Andre Swift – Dak roasted the Rams last week at home, and he will get another exploitable secondary this week. Lamb is coming in around 15% pOWN%, and he is coming off a monster game last week, as the Cowboys rolled. Through eight weeks, the Eagles rank 17th in yards per play, 19th in points per game, 25th in third-down conversion rate, 26th in red zone touchdown rate, 18th in defensive DVOA, and 17th in EPA/play allowed. Not terrible, but not the Eagles we are used to. The Cowboys pass defense has been stellar, but their run defense is allowing over 108 yards rushing per game, firmly putting Swift in play at sub-12% pOWN% with as much upside as any RB on the slate.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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