The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bears vs. Seahawks
For this Week 8 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/2 featuring the Bears vs. Seahawks, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Bears vs. Seahawks
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Happy Monday!
We have a great game on tap tonight, as the Bears travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. In their second year under Ben Johnson, the Bears are 5-2 with a point differential of +37. Their offense gets all of the headlines, but their defense has been underrated. They’ve held opponents to 12 or fewer points in 4 of 7 games this season. The Seahawks are 4-3 this season, but all three losses have been by 3 points or less. They have a point differential of +37.
This is a battle of two titans. The Seahawks are 3-point favorites, and the game features a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Monday, 9:00 AM ET)
▪️ RB Kyle Monangai (CHI) — Out (thumb/toe)
▪️ WR Rashid Shaheed (SEA) — Out (knee)
▪️ RB Velus Jones Jr. (SEA) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ OT Charles Cross (SEA) — Out (ankle)
▪️ LB Uchenna Nwosu (SEA) — Doubtful (ankle)
▪️ QB Drew Lock (SEA) — Questionable (elbow)
▪️ G Anthony Bradford (SEA) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ LB D’Marco Jackson (CHI) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ CB Malik Muhammad (CHI) — Questionable (toe)
Chicago Bears Preview
Caleb Williams is having a great season. He has averaged 20 fantasy points per game and has one of the highest completion rates over expectation of any quarterback in the NFL. He has some of the best weapons, an offensive-minded coach, and a solid offensive line. He’s obviously a strong target tonight, although the matchup is far from ideal. The Seahawks are 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Bears’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Rome Odunze: 81% route part., 15% target share, 35% air-yards share, 9.6 XFPPG
🔹 Colston Loveland (TE): 70% route part., 17% target share, 17% air-yards share, 9.8 XFPPG
🔹 Luther Burden III: 66% route part., 20% target share, 26% air-yards share, 12.9 XFPPG
🔹 Kalif Raymond: 59% route part., 12% target share, 12% air-yards share, 7.8 XFPPG
🔹 Sam Roush (TE): 9% route part., 2% target share, 1% air-yards share, 1.3 XFPPG
It’s been extremely tough trying to predict which Bears pass catcher to play well each week. Rome Odunze leads the team in air yards share (35%), Luther Burden III leads the team in target share (20%), and Colston Loveland is finally starting to break out after a slow start to the season. Over the last 2 games, Loveland has caught 13 of his 19 targets for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. With so little separating these three, I’m going to let price and projected ownership dictate my exposure.
Kalif Raymond was terrific in the first 3 games of the season, but he’s been held under 5 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. It’s a tough matchup for all the Bears pass catchers, as the Seahawks rank 2nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 3rd to tight ends.
With Kyle Monangai out, D’Andre Swift will have a bell-cow role once again. He’s had over 90% of the running back touches in the games without Monangai, and he’s caught at least 4 passes in each of the last 3 games. The workload isn’t in question, but the matchup certainly is. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in the last two seasons and are 3rd in EPA against the run this season.
Sam Darnold can make mistakes, so the Bears defense is viable if you are MME’ing the slate. I’m not prioritizing them in small-field tournaments. Kicker Cairo Santos is viable, as the Bears could struggle in the redzone.
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Seattle Seahawks Preview
Sam Darnold seems to love living on the edge. You never know if he’s going to throw for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns or if he’s going to throw a few interceptions. His advanced metrics aren’t nearly as good as last season, but he remains a strong option in DFS. The Bears blitz often, yet they don’t generate a ton of pressure. If the offensive line can pick up the blitzes, Darnold will have opportunities downfield. Chicago has allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Seahawks’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 86% route part., 33% target share, 53% air-yards share, 23.2 XFPPG
🔹 AJ Barner (TE): 73% route part., 12% target share, 4% air-yards share, 7.6 XFPPG
🔹 Cooper Kupp: 72% route part., 11% target share, 14% air-yards share, 7.2 XFPPG
🔹 Tory Horton: 26% route part., 5% target share, 7% air-yards share, 2.8 XFPPG
🔹 Eric Saubert (TE): 13% route part., 2% target share, 0% air-yards share, 0.9 XFPPG
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the obvious choice at MVP and CPT tonight. He boasts a 33% target share and a 53% air yards share this season. He has averaged 28 fantasy points per game, which is the highest of any player in fantasy football. Cooper Kupp projects as a strong value with Rashid Shaheed out, but when’s the last time fading him really hurt in DFS? He’s had 1 game all season with more than 10 fantasy points. I much prefer Tory Horton at a cheaper price point.
AJ Barner has a low aDOT, but his 12% target share is solid in this offense. With Shaheed out, he could see a small uptick in targets tonight. Eric Saubert only has 3 receptions on the season. As far as the matchup goes, the Bears are 12th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 15th to tight ends.
Zach Charbonnet is set to make his season debut tonight. He tore his ACL in January, so we have to expect the Seahawks to ease him back into action. Jadarian Price is also set to return after missing some time. The Seahawks also still have Emanuel Wilson and George Holani. There are far too many players splitting work in this backfield. It’s not a great matchup anyway, as the Bears are 6th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Seahawks have one of the top defenses in football, and they are 3-point favorites at home. They are firmly in play tonight. Kicker Jason Myers has the 3rd highest projection of any player on the Seahawks. He’s viable in all formats.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a massive 30% projected ownership at CPT tonight. That number is for large-field tournaments, so we can expect it to be even higher in small-field contests. He’s still my favorite option at the multiplier. I like both quarterbacks here as well, and Tory Horton allows you to stack the rest of your roster.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the chalk at MVP as well, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Both quarterbacks are strong options at the multiplier, while AJ Barner stands out as a solid punt. He’s only $4,500 if you use him as your MVP.
Prop Pick – Bears vs. Seahawks
Season Record: 10-9
✅ Jason Myers o1.5 field goals made
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 8, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data