The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Giants
For this Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/13 featuring the Cowboys vs. Giants, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cowboys vs. Giants
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
I hope everyone’s main slate went as planned. I’m writing this late Saturday night, so I hope my main slate also went as planned.
We have a division rivalry for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season. The Cowboys and Giants are both coming off underwhelming seasons. Dallas finished at 7-9-1 and missed the playoffs, while New York finished at 4-13.
The Cowboys finished 2nd in total offense last season, but they had one of their worst defensive seasons ever. They are hoping to improve on that side of the ball after changing defensive coordinators, signing key free agents, and drafting a safety in the 1st round of the draft.
The Giants hit the reset button in the offseason. They brought in John Harbaugh as the head coach, Matt Nagy as the offensive coordinator, and Dennard Wilson as the defensive coordinator. They didn’t make any huge personnel moves, so we’ll see how much this coaching staff can get out of their team.
Sunday night’s game features a 3-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 8:30 AM ET)
▪️ Malik Davis (DAL) — Out (hip)
▪️ Malik Nabers (NYG) — Questionable (knee)
▪️ Tyler Smith (DAL) — Out (thumb surgery, 4-6 weeks)
▪️ Ajani Cornelius (DAL) — Questionable (knee)
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott was not the problem for the Cowboys last season. He finished with the 2nd-most pass attempts, the 3rd-most passing yards, and the 4th-most touchdowns of any quarterback in the NFL. He doesn’t offer as much rushing upside as he did early in his career, but he still had 177 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in 2025. The advanced metrics (EPA per play, big-time throws, and success rate) all back up the argument that he had a great season. Quarterbacks are always strong plays on Showdown slates, and we shouldn’t shy away from a matchup against the Giants, who allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.
Cowboys’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 George Pickens (DAL): 85% route participation, 21% target share, 32% air yards share
🔹 CeeDee Lamb (DAL): 76% route participation, 22% target share, 34% air yards share
🔹 Jake Ferguson (DAL): 69% route participation, 16% target share, 9% air yards share
🔹 Ryan Flournoy (DAL): 43% route participation, 10% target share, 12% air yards share
🔹 Brevyn Spann-Ford (DAL): 10% route participation, 2% target share, 2% air yards share
George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb had nearly identical statistics last season. They both finished with target shares between 21% and 22% and air yards shares between 32% and 34%. While Lamb had a higher expected fantasy points per game, Pickens actually averaged 2.8 more fantasy points per game. Lamb is often considered the true WR1 in this offense, but this is clearly a 1A/1B situation. Both are strong options against the Giants, who allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season.
Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin, and Jonathan Mingo round out the wide receiver room. Flournoy has flashed upside when given the opportunity, while Turpin is a gadget player with speed. While his overall numbers were respectable (600 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns), Jake Ferguson was a much different player when Lamb was on the field. He averaged 9.8 fantasy points when Lamb was active and 17.8 fantasy points when Lamb was out last season. Brevyn Spann-Ford and Luke Schoonmaker will see snaps at tight end as well, but they’ll likely need to find the end zone to make a difference in tournaments.
The Cowboys will be without Tyler Smith in Week 1, which could pose problems for their rushing attack. He was 5th in PFF’s run-blocking grades last season. While not ideal, the Giants were the literal best matchup for a running back last season, ranking dead last in both PFF’s rush defense grades and EPA against the run. At this time last year, nobody wanted any part of Javonte Williams, but he surprised everyone with a huge season in his first year in Dallas. He should be a bell-cow back once again. Emari Demercado is viable thanks to his $1,000 price point on DraftKings.
The Giants should be better this season, but it could take some time for them to gel under this new coaching staff. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Cowboys’ defense, but they are worth a look in tournaments on this Showdown slate. Brandon Aubrey might be the best kicker in football. He’s one of my favorite value plays.
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New York Giants Preview
Jaxson Dart had a solid rookie season. He finished with 2,272 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. His real value in DFS came on the ground, as he added 487 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. The Cowboys should be better on defense this season, but it could take some time for all of the new pieces to gel under their new defensive coordinator. Given Dart’s rushing upside, he’s one of my favorite targets at MVP and CPT.
Giants’ 2025 wideout usage:
🔹 Malik Nabers (NYG): 80% route participation, 24% target share, 51% air yards share
🔹 Darnell Mooney: 83% route participation, 15% target share, 28% air yards share
🔹 Theo Johnson (NYG): 73% route participation, 16% target share, 15% air yards share
🔹 Isaiah Likely: 53% route participation, 10% target share, 11% air yards share
Malik Nabers is technically questionable for this game, but he did wrap up the week with three consecutive full practices. By all accounts, it looks like he will suit up for the first time since Week 4 of last season. When healthy, he’s one of the best in the league at earning targets. He set franchise receiving records as a rookie in 2024. However, the Giants want to be careful with him after coming off a torn ACL/meniscus. He’s a tough player to project on this slate because there is a chance he won’t see a full allotment of snaps if active.
Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton are both off to greener pastures, and the Giants brought in Odell Beckham Jr. and Darnell Mooney. They also drafted Malachi Fields with the 74th overall pick in the draft. Fields should be the WR2 for the Giants this season. At 6’4” and 223 pounds, he’s another big receiver who will line up outside. The Giants have some intriguing tight ends now. Theo Johnson had a solid rookie season, and they brought in Isaiah Likely this offseason. The latter has always been stuck behind Mark Andrews in a run-first offense, so I’m excited to see what he can do on a new team.
Like his teammate Nabers, Cam Skattebo also suffered a season-ending injury (ankle) last season. While on the field, he was extremely productive as a rookie. In 8 games, he racked up 617 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns. His playing style could lead to another injury, but that’s what makes him Skattebo. He played with reckless abandon. He should be the RB1 for the Giants this season, but his workload will likely be scaled back this season. Devin Singletary, Najee Harris, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. will mix in behind Skattebo.
A fluke play could always turn into a defensive score, but I want no part of the Giants’ defense on this slate. They have a serious lack of talent and are facing a very good offensive team in the Cowboys. Kicker Dominic Zvada also carries some risk, as the Giants can’t afford to settle for a bunch of field goals in this game.
CPT/MVP Picks
🏅 Jaxson Dart – Immense rushing upside; Cowboys’ defense could take some time to gel
🥈 George Pickens – Cowboys’ receivers have a clear path to being the top scorer on the slate
🥉 CeeDee Lamb – Cowboys’ receivers have a clear path to being the top scorer on the slate
Lineup Construction & Ownership Angle
On DraftKings, we have projected ownership that is spread out at the CPT position. Dak Prescott, Jaxson Dart, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams are all projected for 10-15% ownership. This isn’t a slate where I want to get cute at the multiplier position. My lineups will eat the chalk at CPT and use one of these players.
On FanDuel, the quarterbacks are projected for the most ownership at MVP. The scoring system over there certainly makes it easier for a quarterback to be the optimal MVP. While I like both quarterbacks at the multiplier spot in cash games and small-field tournaments, going elsewhere is a great way to be different in tournaments.
For a full stat preview of every game this week, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data, ProFootballFocus, and Stat Rankings