The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Packers
For this Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/18 featuring the Cowboys vs. Packers, Notorious will take a look at the top NFL DFS plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Cowboys vs. Packers
Jump straight to the DFS Showdown salaries and projections →
Welcome back to the NFL Grind Down. Whether your main slate went well or not as you hoped, we always have the Sunday Night Football game to look forward to. The Cowboys are coming off a brutal loss at home against the Buccaneers. They have dropped to 2-3 on the season. The Packers are 3-2 on the season even though they have a negative point differential. Both teams have some catching up to do in their respective divisions, so this is an important game.
Tonight’s game features a 1.5-point spread and a 53.5-point total.
Key Injuries (as of Sunday, 11:00 AM ET)
▪️ WR Skyy Moore (GB) — Out (ankle)
▪️ DT Javon Hargrave (GB) — Out (Achilles)
▪️ CB Benjamin St-Juste (GB) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ T Drew Shelton (DAL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ CB Cobie Durant (DAL) — Out (hamstring)
▪️ CB Joey Porter Jr. (DAL) — Questionable (ankle)
▪️ LB DeMarvion Overshown (DAL) — Questionable (hamstring)
Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys being so bad at defense the last 2 seasons has been great for the fantasy production of Dak Prescott. Through the first 5 games of this season, he has averaged 19 fantasy points. His expected fantasy points per game (XFPPG) is even better, which could suggest some positive regression moving forward. The Packers are still without Micah Parsons, but their pass defense has held up nicely. They are 8th in EPA allowed per dropback and 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Cowboys’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 CeeDee Lamb: 79% route part., 27% target share, 38% air-yards share, 21.4 XFPPG
🔹 George Pickens: 82% route part., 21% target share, 33% air-yards share, 13.5 XFPPG
🔹 Ryan Flournoy: 69% route part., 13% target share, 13% air-yards share, 6.9 XFPPG
🔹 Jake Ferguson (TE): 67% route part., 11% target share, 7% air-yards share, 9.6 XFPPG
🔹 KaVontae Turpin: 17% route part., 3% target share, 3% air-yards share, 2.0 XFPPG
It took 5 weeks, but we finally saw a breakout performance from George Pickens. Against the Buccaneers, he caught 9 of 13 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. His big game came at the expense of CeeDee Lamb, who only caught 2 passes for 9 yards. In each of the last 4 games, one of Pickens or Lamb has topped 23 fantasy points. And in 3 of those games, one of them has been held under 10 fantasy points. In other words, we can expect one of them to perform extremely well here, but we shouldn’t expect them both to have ceiling performances. I am going to make a rule in LineupHQ to include exactly one of the two in each lineup.
Ryan Flournoy has been the clear WR3 for the Cowboys this season. He has run a route on 69% of dropbacks and has seen a 13% target share. With that said, he has yet to score a touchdown and has been held under 40 receiving yards in 4 of 5 games. Jake Ferguson hasn’t had much of a ceiling when playing alongside both Pickens and Lamb. From a matchup standpoint, the Packers are 14th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Have you ever seen Breaking Bad where Jesse screams, “He can’t keep getting away with it?” That’s how I feel about Javonte Williams this season. He has averaged 55 rushing yards per game (3.4 yards per carry), yet he has averaged 19 fantasy points. He’s already scored 6 rushing touchdowns (5 in the last 3 games) and has at least 2 receptions in every game. With the Packers being a bottom-5 run defense this season, Williams will likely get away with it again.
There’s no chance I’m going anywhere near the Cowboys’ defense even if Joey Porter Jr. makes his debut. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is viable in all formats.
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Green Bay Packers Preview
Jordan Love has historically underwhelmed in fantasy football, but this season is different. The Packers have no semblance of a running game, and their defense is not nearly as good as it has been in the past. This has led to pass-heavier game scripts, which has led to better fantasy production for Love. He has topped 22 fantasy points in 3 of the 5 games this season. He should continue his solid play against the Cowboys, who are dead last in EPA allowed per dropback this season.
Packers’ 2026 WR/TE usage:
🔹 Christian Watson: 78% route part., 20% target share, 33% air-yards share, 16.2 XFPPG
🔹 Matthew Golden: 82% route part., 23% target share, 37% air-yards share, 15.7 XFPPG
🔹 Tucker Kraft (TE): 65% route part., 16% target share, 9% air-yards share, 11.6 XFPPG
🔹 Bo Melton: 25% route part., 4% target share, 6% air-yards share, 2.7 XFPPG
🔹 Jonnu Smith (TE): 27% route part., 4% target share, 4% air-yards share, 2.4 XFPPG
It’s usually a tough DFS decision between Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but the correct answer was both last week against the Bears. They combined for 266 receiving yards and a touchdown. While it makes sense to have exposure to both tonight, I will continue to give a slight lean to Golden. He has a higher route participation, a higher target share, and a higher air yards share. On top of that, he’s $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings.
Bo Melton will mix in as the WR3, but he does not have good usage metrics (4% target share and a 6% air yards share). Tucker Kraft has seen an uptick in routes since the start of the season and has a 16% target share. The upside that we saw last season hasn’t shown up yet, but we know it’s still in the tank. In a dream matchup against the Cowboys, perhaps this will be his breakout performance.
The Packers have had a good running game for a very long time. It’s safe to say that is no longer the case. They have averaged 60 rushing yards per game, which is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. MarShawn Lloyd, Pierre Strong Jr., and Kaleb Johnson are likely to split snaps in this one, which makes this backfield very risky for DFS. However, the Cowboys have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs. I wouldn’t look to any of these backs in small-field tournaments, but Lloyd and Strong are somewhat appealing in large-field tournaments.
The Packers are playing at home, but they have not been good defensively. With this massive total, I’m happy to cross both defenses off my list of potential targets. Kicker Trey Smack is firmly in play.
DraftKings Ownership Angle & CPT Picks
It looks like the ownership at CPT will be pretty spread out, as Jordan Love, Christian Watson, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, and Matthew Golden are all projected for double-digit ownership. In other words, we don’t need to worry about ownership at the multiplier position, which is a nice change of pace.
FanDuel Ownership Angle & MVP Picks
The two quarterbacks are projected for the most ownership at MVP, so anyone outside of Jordan Love and Dak Prescott will be contrarian. While receiving production isn’t as valuable on FanDuel as it is on DraftKings, I still like using Matthew Golden and CeeDee Lamb at MVP.
Prop Pick – Cowboys vs. Packers
Season Record: 6-5
✅ Matthew Golden o65.5 receiving yards
For a full stat preview of every game in Week 6, head to the NFL First Look.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data