The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Packers vs. Cowboys
For this Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup on 9/28 featuring the Packers vs. Cowboys, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Packers vs. Cowboys
I hope everyone’s day is off to a great start. We still have plenty of DFS action before closing the chapter on Week 4. We have the Packers-Cowboys game tonight, and then we have 2 games to look forward to on Monday. For RG premium members, we’ll have Consensus Value Rankings, the Key Personnel article, and Expert Play tags in our NFL DFS Optimizer.
The Packers are coming off a tough loss against the Browns, where they could only muster up 230 yards of offense. The Cowboys are lucky to have a win this season, as they narrowly beat the Giants in Week 2 and were blown out by the Bears in Week 3. This is an important game for both teams, especially if they have playoff aspirations. The Packers are listed as 6.5-point favorites, and the game features a total of 46.5 points.
Key Injuries
Jayden Reed – Out
CeeDee Lamb – Out
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers are currently 23rd in pass rate over expectation and 30th in pass rate overall. They are a team that wants to run the ball and lean on their talented defense. While this limits the upside of Jordan Love, he’s one good matchup and/or game script away from having a breakout performance. He offers a little bit of rushing upside (5 rushing touchdowns in the last couple of seasons) and has plenty of weapons in the passing game. He should be licking his chops for a matchup against the Cowboys, who have the only defense never to record at least one sack against Caleb Williams. Dallas is also 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Green Bay’s Week 3 wideout usage:
- Romeo Doubs: 84% route participation, 8% target share
- Matthew Golden: 71% route participation, 16% target share
- Dontayvion Wicks: 61% route participation, 16% target share
- Tucker Kraft: 68% route participation, 16% target share
Since Jayden Reed played in the first two games of the season, I figured it would be more valuable to look at the usage from only Week 3 when he was out of the lineup. Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden both ran routes on over 70% of dropbacks on the outside, while Dontayvion Wicks was the primary slot receiver. All three are excellent options against the Cowboys, who have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL.
I expect many to gravitate to Golden after being so close to some big plays in the first three games, but I like the proven veterans in Doubs and Wicks. The Cowboys play more zone than any team in the NFL, and Golden’s biggest strength is being able to separate in man coverage. This is a great spot for Tucker Kraft as well, as he’s racked up an 18% target share on the season. Malik Heath and Luke Musgrave can be mixed into lineups in large-field tournaments.
Josh Jacobs has only averaged 3.1 yards per carry this season, but he continues to be a workhorse running back on a team that loves to run the ball. He should find more efficiency against the Cowboys, who are 31st in PFF’s grades against the run this season. I wouldn’t call Jacobs a major part of the passing game, but he’s seen 11 targets over the last 2 games. He’s a strong option in all formats, although it’s certainly easier to build around Love and his pass catchers.
We have a revenge game on tap for Micah Parsons. The Packers arguably have the best defensive line in football, so they should be able to get pressure on Dak Prescott. Kicker Brandon McManus is in a good spot here, but it’s hard to click his name over some of the cheap wideouts on the Packers.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Dallas Cowboys Preview
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys couldn’t sustain drives last week against the Bears. It didn’t help that he lost his biggest weapon in CeeDee Lamb, who has already been ruled out of this week’s game. Prescott doesn’t offer much rushing upside at this stage of his career, and he draws a brutal matchup against the Packers. The positives are that he’s playing at home and likely to be trailing, so we can expect him to drop back to pass 35+ times.
Dallas’ Week 3 wideout usage:
- George Pickens: 85% route participation, 20% target share
- Jalen Tolbert: 87% route participation, 13% target share
- KaVontae Turpin: 68% route participation, 7% target share
- Jake Ferguson: 64% route participation, 31% target share
Much like the Packers, I think it makes the most sense to look at wideout usage from only Week 3 when it comes to the Cowboys since Lamb missed most of that game. In his absence, George Pickens and Jalen Tolbert both ran a route on at least 85% of dropbacks on the outside, while KaVontae Turpin saw a major spike in playing time and ran 81% of his routes from the slot.
Pickens has the ceiling that we are looking for in tournaments, but the Packers are extremely tough against outside receivers. He’s still worth a look in tournaments, but Jalen Tolbert is less than half his price and should run a similar number of routes. On a per-dollar basis, Turpin is my favorite wideout on the Cowboys. If he takes over the slot role, he should get peppered with high-value targets over the middle of the field. Jake Ferguson will likely be the safety blanket for Prescott when he’s under pressure, and for what it’s worth, the Packers have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Javonte Williams has surprised all of the fantasy football community with his play through the first 3 games. He has averaged 76 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards per game and has already racked up 3 touchdowns. He’s played on 70% of the snaps so far, so he doesn’t have a lot of competition for touches. A matchup against the Packers is a difficult one, as they are 11th or better in EPA against the run, PFF’s grades against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Cowboys traded away their best defensive player weeks before the season. Naturally, they have allowed 30.7 points per game. I want no part of their defense on this DFS slate. Kicker Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in the NFL. The problem with the kickers on this slate is that there are really good wideouts at similar price points.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This slate is all about the quarterbacks and their wideouts. With Jayden Reed and CeeDee Lamb both out, all of the wideouts from both teams feel underpriced given their projected roles in this game. If deciding between the running backs, I’ll give a slight edge to Jacobs. He has a better matchup and could have a better game script since the Packers are 6.5-point favorites. I have no interest in the Cowboys’ defense, but the Packers’ defense could pose problems for Dak Prescott.
Packers vs. Cowboys DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 18.46 | $10,800 | 1.71 | $13,400 | 1.38 |
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 18.36 | $10,000 | 1.84 | $13,000 | 1.41 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 17.62 | $9,400 | 1.87 | $12,800 | 1.38 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | RB | 15.39 | $9,000 | 1.71 | $10,200 | 1.51 |
| George Pickens | DAL | WR | 14.54 | $9,800 | 1.48 | $10,600 | 1.37 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 13.09 | $8,400 | 1.56 | $9,200 | 1.42 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 12.49 | $8,600 | 1.45 | $9,000 | 1.39 |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 10.06 | $7,000 | 1.44 | $6,600 | 1.52 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 9.98 | $6,400 | 1.56 | $8,000 | 1.25 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 9.18 | $4,400 | 2.09 | $5,400 | 1.70 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | GB | WR | 9.01 | $4,000 | 2.25 | $6,000 | 1.50 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 8.53 | $5,200 | 1.64 | $6,800 | 1.25 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 8.18 | $3,800 | 2.15 | $4,800 | 1.70 |
| Packers | GB | DST | 7.00 | $5,400 | 1.30 | $7,000 | 1.00 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 6.57 | $5,600 | 1.17 | $7,400 | 0.89 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 5.07 | $3,400 | 1.49 | $5,800 | 0.87 |
| Miles Sanders | DAL | RB | 4.90 | $3,000 | 1.63 | $4,200 | 1.17 |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | WR | 2.72 | $2,000 | 1.36 | $3,600 | 0.76 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 2.62 | $600 | 4.37 | $2,200 | 1.19 |
| Malik Heath | GB | WR | 2.50 | $1,000 | 2.50 | $1,400 | 1.79 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 2.37 | $2,400 | 0.99 | $1,800 | 1.32 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 2.33 | $1,600 | 1.46 | $2,000 | 1.17 |
| Chris Brooks | GB | RB | 2.10 | $2,800 | 0.75 | $3,200 | 0.66 |
| Savion Williams | GB | WR | 1.88 | $800 | 2.35 | $2,600 | 0.72 |
Packers vs. Cowboys Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-7
KaVontae Turpin more than 29.5 receiving yards (1.69x) – Sleeper Fantasy
If last week was any indication of what to expect this week, KaVontae Turpin should man the slot for the Cowboys. He ran a route on 61% of dropbacks and was lined up in the slot on 81% of those routes. With the Packers having one of the best defensive lines in the NFL (along with a good secondary), I expect Dak Prescott to get the ball out of his hands quickly. This should lead to more targets for Turpin and Jake Ferguson.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus