The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Packers vs. Steelers
For this Week 8 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/26 featuring the Packers vs. Steelers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Packers vs. Steelers
We are back with another Sunday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. While I wouldn’t call the Packers and Steelers the two most exciting teams in the NFL, this could be a very fun game to watch. We have the revenge narrative with Aaron Rodgers, and both teams currently sit atop their respective positions. The Packers are 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 45.5 points. Whether your Sunday main slate went as planned or went awry, let’s end the night with a win in Showdown.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Christian Watson – Questionable
Brandon McManus – Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks – Out
Jayden Reed – Out
Green Bay Packers Preview
The Packers have one of the best defenses and one of the best running games in the NFL. While this is great for winning football games, it’s not ideal for the fantasy production of Jordan Love. He has a ton of talent and can flash a high ceiling, but the Packers need to be pushed for that to happen. When playing with a lead, they lean on their defense and running game. Love does have a 30 fantasy point outing this season, but he’s also been held under 16 fantasy points in 4 of 6 games. He’s a strong option on this Showdown slate, although I prefer to look elsewhere at the multiplier positions (MVP/CPT).
Green Bay’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Romeo Doubs: 77% route participation, 21% target share, 37% air yards share
- Matthew Golden: 66% route participation, 13% target share, 23% air yards share
- Tucker Kraft: 72% route participation, 17% target share, 12% air yards share
The Packers are expected to be without Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, but Christian Watson could make his season debut. We’ll have to keep an eye on his availability, but he’ll likely be limited if he does suit up. Regardless, we should have interest in Romeo Doubs, who boasts a 21% target share and a 37% air yards share on the season. Matthew Golden is still looking for a breakout game, but he’s been close to a few big plays already this season. We think of the Steelers as being a brutal matchup, but they are 21st in EPA allowed per dropback and 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
If Watson is unable to suit up, Savion Williams and Malik Heath would both become solid lineup fillers. They are cheap enough that they would only need a couple of receptions to pay off their salaries. Tucker Kraft is one of the best tight ends in football and is facing a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. He’s a strong option in all formats, especially with all of the injuries to the Packers’ wide receivers. Luke Musgrave will run a handful of routes and is only $1,600 on DraftKings.
Josh Jacobs has one of the best roles of any running back in the NFL. He’s played on 71% of the snaps and has averaged 22 opportunities per game on a team with one of the highest rush rates. He’s not known as a great pass catcher, but he has caught at least 4 passes in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s a good bet for 20 touches against the Steelers, who are 17th in PFF’s rush defense grades and 22nd in EPA against the run. If Jacobs is a late scratch, Emanuel Wilson would become the top value play on the slate.
The Packers have an elite pass rush and are facing a quarterback with very little mobility. Even though the game is in Pittsburgh, I have interest in Green Bay’s defense. Brandon McManus might suit up this week, so keep an eye on that leading up to lock if you are planning to roster a kicker.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers has led the Steelers to a 4-2 record, but I’m not sure how long they can sustain their success. The advanced metrics suggest that their defense is not very good, and their offense is middling at best. I usually force quarterbacks into my Showdown lineups, but I won’t be doing that with Rodgers. He has no rushing upside at this stage of his career and is facing an elite defense in the Packers. He does have the revenge narrative in his back pocket, but his path to success is throwing for 3+ touchdowns. That’s a big ask against Green Bay.
Pittsburgh’s 2025 wideout usage:
- DK Metcalf: 87% route participation, 21% target share, 42% air yards share
- Calvin Austin: 75% route participation, 15% target share, 47% air yards share
- Pat Freiermuth: 50% route participation, 10% target share, 13% air yards share
DK Metcalf has been the alpha receiver in this offense. He owns a 21% target share and a 42% air yards share. The overall volume of the passing game isn’t great, but Metcalf offers a high ceiling and deserves consideration at MVP/CPT. Calvin Austin has only averaged 9 fantasy points per game this season, but he has seen 47% of the team’s air yards. Eventually, those will turn into long catches. He’s an excellent tournament option.
Roman Wilson is technically the WR3 in this offense, but he doesn’t run many routes. The Steelers use a lot of 12 personnel with two tight ends. Pat Freiermuth caught a long touchdown last week against the Bengals, while Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington are big weapons in the passing game as well. We have all three tight ends with similar projections for this slate. It’s a good matchup, as the Packers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Jaylen Warren is coming off his best game of the season. He had 20 touches that he turned into 158 yards from scrimmage. With that said, it was an elite matchup against the Bengals. He should have a much tougher time against the Packers, who are 7th in PFF’s grades against the run and 3rd in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Kenneth Gainwell is cheap and could see around 10 touches in this one.
The Steelers have not had a good defense this season, so I’m fine avoiding them on this slate. Kicker Chris Boswell has made at least 2 field goals in 4 of 7 games this season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The Steelers are a tough team to predict. While they would like to run the ball in this spot, the Packers have been elite against the run this season. I’m not forcing Aaron Rodgers into lineups, but quarterbacks are always viable in Showdown. I will have more exposure to Green Bay’s offense, as they are expected to be without Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. They will have a more concentrated passing attack than usual, especially if Christian Watson isn’t ready to make his season debut. Given the low total in this game, this could be a good spot to target the kickers. I know it’s not exciting, but there’s a path for them both to have multiple field goal attempts.
Packers vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | QB | 19.07 | $10,000 | 1.91 | $12,400 | 1.54 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 18.23 | $11,000 | 1.66 | $14,600 | 1.25 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15.47 | $9,800 | 1.58 | $11,600 | 1.33 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 14.06 | $9,600 | 1.46 | $9,800 | 1.43 |
| D.K. Metcalf | PIT | WR | 13.44 | $9,400 | 1.43 | $11,400 | 1.18 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TE | 13.19 | $8,400 | 1.57 | $10,000 | 1.32 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 13.07 | $7,600 | 1.72 | $8,600 | 1.52 |
| Matthew Golden | GB | WR | 11.12 | $7,000 | 1.59 | $7,800 | 1.43 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 8.96 | $5,800 | 1.54 | $4,800 | 1.87 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 8.52 | $4,200 | 2.03 | $5,400 | 1.58 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 8.30 | $5,200 | 1.60 | $6,600 | 1.26 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 7.06 | $3,000 | 2.35 | $6,200 | 1.14 |
| Brandon McManus | GB | K | 6.68 | $5,000 | 1.34 | $6,800 | 0.98 |
| Christian Watson | GB | WR | 6.43 | $6,400 | 1.00 | ||
| Packers | GB | DST | 6.32 | $4,800 | 1.32 | $7,200 | 0.88 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 5.67 | $4,000 | 1.42 | $7,000 | 0.81 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 5.32 | $4,400 | 1.21 | $6,400 | 0.83 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 4.96 | $3,800 | 1.31 | $3,200 | 1.55 |
| Emanuel Wilson | GB | RB | 4.43 | $3,400 | 1.30 | $4,400 | 1.01 |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | TE | 2.17 | $1,600 | 1.36 | $1,800 | 1.21 |
| Savion Williams | GB | WR | 2.17 | $2,000 | 1.09 | $2,800 | 0.78 |
| Malik Heath | GB | WR | 2.03 | $2,800 | 0.73 | $1,600 | 1.27 |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | WR | 1.87 | $3,200 | 0.58 | $3,800 | 0.49 |
| Kaleb Johnson | PIT | RB | 0.95 | $400 | 2.38 | $2,400 | 0.40 |
Packers vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 10-11
Matthew Golden more than 40.5 Receiving Yards (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
And just like that, we are one pick away from getting back to .500 on the season. Let’s keep it rolling on Sunday night with Matthew Golden to get more than 40.5 receiving yards. Jayden Reed is out, Dontayvion Wicks is unlikely to suit up, and we don’t know if Christian Watson will be able to make his season debut. Over the last 4 games, Golden has a 15% target share and a 31% air yards share. During that stretch, he’s topped 50 receiving yards in 3 games. We shouldn’t be worried about a matchup against the Steelers, as they are 21st in EPA allowed per dropback and 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus