Super Bowl DFS Tips: Utilizing Chiefs vs. 49ers NFL Sims for DraftKings, FanDuel Showdown Contests
NFL DFS Sims for the Super Bowl has arrived in the form of SimLabs. You can learn more about how to utilize SimLabs for the Chiefs vs. 49ers by reading our DFS Sims FAQ.
Super Bowl Sims NFL DFS Preview
Where an optimizer generates lineups via user customization and the user grades the lineups, SimLabs simulates the field and rates the lineups for the user.
Every week, we look at SimLabs output and briefly discuss any takeaways. For Super Bowl Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, we’ll highlight how SimLabs is looking to avoid QB in the CPT spot on DraftKings, pay up for two studs or punt at MVP on FanDuel, and then we’ll show you how you can gain leverage with large field contrarian builds.
In this SimLabs run, I used all of the default advanced settings, generating large-field lineups with a medium results range.
Click here to create advanced DFS lineups with the power of SimLabs for Super Bowl Showdown!
NFL Sims Takeaway #1: Don’t Pay Up for QB at Captain on DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey and Rashee Rice have exposure at nearly double their pOWN% in 150 builds. McCaffrey at CPT has 42% exposure to 23.9% pOWN%; Rice at CPT has 15.33% exposure to 8.9% pOWN%. These are the two guys who are expected to get the ball most, and SimLabs is telling me not to get too cute on this.
In a game between two strong defenses, talent should get open in space more often than the less talented, and the offense will likely not deviate much from forcing the ball to talent. In other words, the offenses will likely lean more into their talent to beat talent. Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Justin Watson are solid plays for the long ball, but we’re not gonna see the Chiefs totally scheme the offense around 40-yard bombs. There will be a couple of deep shots to these guys, but the Rice volume at Rice’s price makes him the solid overweight play from the Chiefs.
We never really know which of the 49er pass catchers are gonna have a big game, but we know that Kyle Shanahan revolves his offense around the RB. That McCaffrey is an elite talent and that McCaffrey rarely leaves the field, so it’s pretty obvious that he is the top-exposed CPT by a mile. And that SimLabs is saying to bump it up way over his pOWN% and just figure out the rest from there.
NFL Sims Takeaway #2: Two Studs Dominating MVP Exposure on FanDuel
On FD, where the pricing isn’t dynamic for the showcased top roster slot, SimLabs is paying up for McCaffrey (52%) and Patrick Mahomes (~29%) is about ~80% of lineups. This is so overwhelming that we can mix up three approaches:
(1) We can just let SimLabs dictate the exposure.
(2) We can bump up our exposure to McCaffrey or Mahomes and rest the other around even with the pOWN%.
(3) We lower both a bit and up our exposure to the field. Travis Kelce MVP is sitting at 7.2% pOWN%, George Kittle at 2.4%, and Rice at 5.3%.
What I’m personally not going after is more exposure to Deebo Samuel or Isiah Pacheco at MVP. They’re both pushing 30% pOWN%, and that’s just too much to even attempt to own an adequate amount of shares. Keeping them in the pool solely as FLEX plays is my probable approach.
NFL Sims Takeaway #3: Get Contrarian, Fade Vegas
The smart people, the math, and the market are all telling us that this will be a moderately high-scoring, close affair. The over/under is 47.5 — which isn’t 50 — and the spread is 2.5, favoring the 49ers.
The oddball approach to building for the Super Bowl Showdown slate might be to play for the small shot at blowouts favoring each side. Both defenses are good enough to pull a blowout from the magic hat — in which an onslaught approach of stacking 5-1 on DraftKings or 4-1 on FanDuel could be the winning strategy. Three of the top-20 DraftKings NFL sims were onslaughts (two heavy on Niners and one on Chiefs); six of the top-20 on FanDuel (four heavy on Chiefs). SimLabs doesn’t hate this approach, so we should be utilizing it to some extent.
More NFL DFS Sims Tips: It’s in the Syllabus
Visit our SimLabs Discord channel to read the discussions people are having about their experience and raise any questions. With that said, the SimLabs FAQ is extraordinarily fantastic. A lot of questions can be answered by the FAQ. Please consult it, but feel free to post your questions. Especially the one that you think might seem stupid. We’re all in this together.
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