NFL DFS Smash Plays: Week 10
Projections as you see on RotoGrinders are best view not as a static value, but as a range of outcomes. We look at the percentage of outcomes where a player reaches a GPP viable target score as their Smash Percentage, and love to target players with a high probability of returning that value. In this article, we’ll dive in to the RotoGrinders Smash Percentage, tool for Draftkings and FanDuel to find the best combination of projections and projected ownership to consider for this week’s daily fantasy football contests.
Today’s NFL DFS Smash Projections
Mike Davis
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling Projection: 28.32
Smash Percentage: 41.85%
Projected Ownership: 57.7%
Mike Davis headlines Week 10’s Smash Plays article with one of the highest Smash Percentages you’ll see this season at 41.85%. Davis’ Smash Percentage is almost entirely driven by his way too cheap price tag as DraftKings and FanDuel priced him down after the return of Christian McCaffrey in Week 9. Another McCaffrey injury means Davis will once again move into a bellcow role out of the backfield for the Carolina Panthers. A matchup against the Bucs is only a middling one for Davis but it really doesn’t matter for a min-priced player that is projected for a 13% target share and 67% rush share.
Kyler Murray
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
Ceiling Projection: 39.43
Smash Percentage: 36.01%
Projected Ownership: 13.5%
Josh Allen (37.62%), not Kyler Murray, is actually the QB with the highest Smash Percentage for Week 10 but it’s close and Murray had some news break his way on Saturday. Buffalo Bills CB Josh Norman tested positive for COVID and CB Levi Wallace and S Dean Marlowe were identified as close contacts making all three unavailable for Sunday’s game. That means Buffalo will likely have to rely on 7th round rookie CB Dane Jackson to start opposite of Tre’Davious White against Arizona. To be fair, Jackson has looked okay in his limited field time this season but it is still a big blow to their secondary depth. Murray has posted back-to-back 41 DK point performances and could be in line for another monster game if the Bills are able to keep pace.
Stefon Diggs
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling Projection: 34.09
Smash Percentage: 30.89%
Projected Ownership: 23.9%
Speaking of Buffalo, Stefon Diggs is the receiver with the highest Smash Percentage in Week 10 at 30.89%. Diggs has dominated target share for the Bills this season with the third-highest share in the league (29.26%) and is averaging over 10 targets per game. Diggs has actually been a bit underwhelming scoring the ball with just three touchdowns on the year but should see that number grow if he continues to see the high number of opportunities he has been. I love using Diggs in game stacks oppposite Kyler Murray and think Buffalo @ Arizona is the top game to target on the main slate.
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