NFL DFS Smash Plays: Week 9
NFL projections as you see on RotoGrinders are best viewed not as a static value, but as a range of outcomes. We look at the percentage of outcomes where a player reaches a GPP viable target score as their Smash Percentage, and love to target players with a high probability of returning that value.
In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Smash Percentage, tool for DraftKings and FanDuel to find the best combination of projections and projected ownership to consider for this week’s daily fantasy football contests.
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Today’s NFL DFS Smash Projections
Noah Fant
Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling Projection: 21.62
Smash Percentage: 30.6%
Projected Ownership: 13.6%
At first, it was a bit surprising to see a TE with the highest Smash Percentage of all FLEX players in Week 9, but upon further review, I totally get it. Noah Fant and the Broncos will get a matchup against a Falcons defense that has been very giving to opposing passing attacks this season, including allowing the most fantasy points per game to the TE position. Fant has been battling an ankle injury during the first half of the season but finally looks to be rounding back into form, running a route on 35-of-48 Drew Lock dropbacks in Week 8. Lock wasn’t afraid to look Fant’s way, targeting him 9 times, good for a 23.68% target share. Fant is my favorite point-per-dollar TE option on the slate and I will be looking to roster him alongside Julio Jones for the game stack correlation.
Tyreek Hill
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Ceiling Projection: 31.94
Smash Percentage: 27.17%
Projected Ownership: 9.1%
Since everyone is undoubtedly sick of reading about Tyler Lockett this week, I decided to write about Tyreek Hill who has the second-highest Smash Percentage of all wide receivers on the main slate. We currently have Hill projected to be roughly 9 owned on DraftKings but I wouldn’t be surprised if that number was even lower come Sunday as I expect many of the WR’s around him (Lockett, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs) to soak up a ton of ownership. Hill is seemingly going to be the odd man out in the $7K price range which makes him a super appealing low-owned tournament option with his high Smash Percentage.
Josh Jacobs
Opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling Projection: 27.25
Smash Percentage: 22.55%
Projected Ownership: 16.4%
I was fully expecting Dalvin Cook to be the running back with the highest Smash Percentage on the main slate, but alas, that honor goes to Josh Jacobs. Jacobs was a DNP for Thursday’s practice but is still expected to play and not be limited for Sunday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers represent a middling matchup for Jacobs and the Las Vegas rushing attack but Jacobs could find himself in line for a massive workload if the Raiders are able to find themselves with an early lead. People are generally quick to dismiss Jacobs as a non-factor in the passing game but Jacobs does have a respectable 11% target share on the season and won’t completely lose value in a negative game script. Ideally, Jacobs’ ownership will come in lower than the 16.4% we are currently projecting him at, but I still think he makes for a fine tournament option if it doesn’t.
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