Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Divisional Round

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-01-18 02:11:06 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

I was a tad disappointed with Wild Card Weekend, both in terms of my DFS play and how the actual games played out. Only 1 of the 6 games was decided by less than 10 points. It wasn’t exactly the weekend of competitive football that we were expecting, but I have a feeling the Divisional Round is going to make up for it. Even though 3 of the 4 games feature large spreads, the underdogs are all capable of winning these games.

Cheers to the weekend. Cheers to a great NFL season. I very much appreciate you reading this article each week along the way.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for the Divisional Round

The sites didn’t do us content providers any favors by rolling out different main slates for the Divisional Round. FanDuel decided to go with a 2-game Saturday slate and a 2-game Sunday slate as their main slates, while DraftKings opted for a 4-game main slate. That makes this article a little tricky in terms of presentation, so we decided to focus on the 4-game DraftKings slate for the position-by-position analysis, and then I’ll provide my thoughts on each 2-game slate from a FanDuel perspective at the bottom of the article.

To stay up to date with my thoughts on the slate and the weather, make sure to check out our NFL DFS Optimizer and the NFL Weather page.

Quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

Jayden Daniels: $7,000 DK

There are a lot of good quarterback targets, but Jayden Daniels is my favorite. He has as much upside as any player on the slate, has the best expected game script of any quarterback, and is not overly expensive. He’s scored at least 22 fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games and has topped 35 fantasy points twice during that stretch. After not running as much in the middle of the season, he’s had 13, 16, 9, and 11 rushing attempts in the last 4 meaningful games. The Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs and facing one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They will be forced to air it out a ton in this game. On the season, the Lions have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes: $6,000 DK

My second favorite quarterback this weekend is Patrick Mahomes. He’s a player that I rarely target during the regular season but always target during the playoffs. He didn’t play in Week 18, and the Chiefs had a bye in the first round of the playoffs, so he should be well-rested and ready for a big playoff run. We know he likes to scramble more in the playoffs, and he draws one of the easier matchups on the slate. The Texans don’t have much of a pass rush and allowed the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season. With so many good skill-position players, I like the idea of saving at quarterback with Mahomes.

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