Noto's Key Personnel: Week 15
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
We have NFL overload this week, as we get a 3-game slate on Saturday, a 10-game main slate, and then the usual Sunday night and Monday night showdown slates. This article will focus on the main slate, but we have plenty of content for all of the slates, so be sure to check all of that out.
This might be the best late swap slate of the entire season. The 3 games with the highest totals are all in the afternoon. Most DFS players set their lineups on Sunday morning and then sweat them all day without making any changes. Based on what happens with your players in the early games, you should absolutely look to utilize the late swap feature. You can either eat the chalk early and look to pivot in the late games if you get off to a slow start, or you can get contrarian early and then potentially play some chalk in the late games if those early plays get off to a nice start.
I really like how my builds are seting up for this slate, so let’s dive into the position-by-position breakdown.
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 15
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Josh Allen: $8,200 DK / $9,000 FD
Matthew Stafford: $6,000 DK / $7,200 FD
Josh Allen was one of my tags last week and he got off to a quick start against the Chiefs. He had over 15 fantasy points at halftime, but then Sean McDermott decided to take his foot off the gas in the second half. I’m going right back to the well because there are only two quarterbacks capable of scoring 40 fantasy points on this slate, and they are facing each other in Buffalo. I won’t argue that the Cowboys are a brutal matchup, but the Bills have one of the best offenses in the NFL. If anything, they’ll be forced to rely on Allen even more than usual. Rather than pairing him with a receiver, I like using Allen solo in hopes he gets a lot of production on the ground. With plenty of value on the slate, spending up at quarterback is a viable strategy.
We generally don’t see a lot of chalk at the quarterback position, but Matthew Stafford is expected to garner around 20% ownership this week. The Rams’ offense has been humming with Kyren Williams back from injury, and you can’t ask for a better matchup than the Commanders. They are dead last in the NFL in DVOA against the pass, dropback EPA, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They have also struggled to generate pressure since trading two of their best pass rushers at the deadline. Stafford doesn’t offer rushing upside, but it’s hard seeing him flop in this spot. He’s an easy click in cash games and small-field tournaments.
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