Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 15 - Monday Night Football

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2024-12-16 17:50:56 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

While I have gotten a lot better when it comes to letting DFS affect my mood, it certainly feels a lot better coming off a win. I had my best main slate of the season yesterday, almost exclusively thanks to Josh Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The two were less than 15% owned in tournaments and combined for 85 fantasy points on DraftKings. I’m hoping to carry some of that momentum into tonight’s 2-game slate.

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 15 – Monday Night Football

It’s always fun when we have extra football, and we get 2 games to sweat on Monday night. They aren’t exactly the best games of the week if we are talking about entertainment value, but it’s shaping up to be a fun slate for DFS. My plan on the slate is to spend down at quarterback. This allows me to build a balanced lineup at every other position without taking a chance on a pure punt. We’ll see if that strategy pans out. Let’s dive into my favorite plays at each position.

To stay up to date with my thoughts on the slate and the weather, make sure to check out our NFL DFS Optimizer and the NFL Weather page.

Quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

Desmond Ridder: $4,800 DK / $6,800 FD

There’s a reason why Desmond Ridder started the season as the third-string quarterback for the Raiders — he’s not very good. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still a top-100 quarterback in the world, which is extremely impressive. There’s a chance Aidan O’Connell starts tonight, but he left last week’s game with a knee injury and didn’t practice all week. We are expecting Ridder to draw the start against the Falcons, who are 28th in EPA against the pass, 31st in PFF’s pass rush grades, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Ridder has a little rushing upside, a positive game script, and two elite weapons to throw the ball to. And hey, if O’Connell draws the start, we can easily pivot to him at a similar price point.

EVERYONE ELSE

While I’m getting contrarian at quarterback, it doesn’t mean you have to follow me. There are three safer options at the position. We’ll start with Sam Darnold, who put up a slate-breaking performance last week against the Falcons. He threw for 347 yards and 5 touchdowns. While it was extremely impressive, he draws a much tougher matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago has been one of the biggest run-funnel matchups this season, ranking top 10 in most pass defense metrics and bottom 10 in most run defense metrics. Darnold still arguably has the highest ceiling on the board, but I am taking my chances with a fade.

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