Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 16

Panthers running back Hubbard

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

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Happy Week 16!

I hope some of you followed me by playing Josh Allen and Amon-Ra St. Brown last week. They combined for over 90 fantasy points and carried me to my best slate of the season. It’s funny- I had my best week of the season and didn’t watch a single second of football. My dad bought the whole family tickets to Paw Patrol Live on Sunday morning (not great, but the kids had fun), and then I had everyone over to make Christmas ornaments and decorate gingerbread houses after the show. It was nice not having to sweat the entire Sunday and even nicer when I checked the scores at the end of the day. I certainly wouldn’t mind a repeat here in Week 16, but I can guarantee that I won’t go the whole day without watching the games.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 16

I love DFS because every slate is a unique puzzle. There are some slates where we have good chalk and more value than we know what to do with. There are other slates where value is tough to find and we have to work a little harder to build lineups that look good on paper. I would certainly classify this slate as the latter. We have some intriguing values at quarterback, but all of the good plays at running back and wide receiver are expensive. While you might not feel as good about your lineups this week, remember that will be the case for everyone.

To stay up to date with my thoughts on the slate and the weather, make sure to check out our NFL DFS Optimizer and the NFL Weather page.

Quarterback

Richardson Colts quarterback

EXPERT PLAY TAGS

Anthony Richardson: $5,400 DK / $7,400 FD

While there are a couple of expensive options that I would love to get to at quarterback, there isn’t enough value to make them work (at least not in my early builds). Anthony Richardson doesn’t have a high floor, but he still has a ceiling that rivals most quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s played in 10 games this season and has already put up outings of 23, 27, and 29 fantasy points. Over the last 4 games, he has 36 rushing attempts and 4 rushing touchdowns. He draws a favorable home matchup against the Titans, who are 28th in PFF’s pass rush grades, 22nd in EPA against the pass, and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Hurts of the Eagles

BEST OF THE REST

As always, I plan to keep my quarterback player pool tight in Week 16. If some unforeseen value opens up before lineup lock, I will try to make at least one lineup with Jalen Hurts. I worry about the Patriots pushing back against the Bills, so I prefer Hurts as my favorite quarterback spend over Josh Allen. Hurts has averaged 23 fantasy points per game this season and hasn’t played in many games that were competitive in the second half. This week’s game against the Commanders is important for both teams. With the game being in Washington, the Eagles should stay aggressive offensively for all four quarters.

Caleb Williams is an intriguing option in the middle range. He’s been hit or miss in his rookie season but has scored at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of 14 games. He’s had good splits at home and is facing one of the biggest pass-funnel matchups in the NFL. The Lions have a top-5 run defense, yet they have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bears will need to put up points to be competitive in this one, and all of his wideouts feel a tad underpriced, which makes it easy to build a single or double-stack.

And finally, we have to talk about Michael Penix. Despite the Falcons winning games and being in the playoff hunt, Kirk Cousins has been so bad that the team is turning to the rookie at quarterback. On a per-dollar basis, I certainly understand the play. This is a tight slate for pricing, and Penix is only $4,500 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. He helps on the roster construction front, and he’s at home and facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Giants. The only concern I have is that the Falcons could build a big lead early and lean heavily on their rushing attack. I’ll likely have a lineup with Penix, but he doesn’t feel like great chalk. I prefer getting up to A-Rich if possible.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious