Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 16

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-12-19 23:43:21 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 16, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

We are back for another edition of the Key Personnel!

Last week was a wild slate. I ended up making some adjustments to my Core Plays in LineupHQ, so I hope that you caught them. I untagged Jahmyr Gibbs and tagged Amon-Ra St. Brown instead. This was a huge swap for me and was the main reason why I was able to cash with ease in my main tournament lineup.

We are officially down to three more main slates this season. It’s bittersweet, as there’s nothing better than playoff football, but the season is quickly coming to an end. We are in Week 16, which means we need a retired athlete who wore the number 16. Vince Carter week was a success last week, so this athlete has some big shoes to fill. There haven’t been many athletes who have worn this number, but two all-time great quarterbacks donned number 16 in their careers — Joe Montana and Peyton Manning.

Both are great options, but we are declaring this the Peyton Manning week. In his decorated career, he won 2 Super Bowls and 5 NFL MVP awards. He set all kinds of records and was almost one of the more likable players in the NFL. My favorite Manning moment was when he hosted Saturday Night Live and did the skit where he volunteered to teach a youth group how to play football. He throws rockets at the kids and swears when they don’t catch the football.

Like Manning, let’s rack up some wins this week.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 16

Welcome to the week of punt quarterbacks. Whether it’s due to injury or bad play from the starters, we have a ton of backup quarterbacks under center this week. The cheap quarterback route allows us to spend up at the other positions, or we can spend up at quarterback and flip the popular build. We typically have to worry about rain, wind, and snow this time of year, but the NFL weather report from Kevin Roth looks awfully calm this weekend.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Jacoby Brissett ($5,300 DK / $7,500 FD) has made 9 starts this season and has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every single game. Many will argue that the passing volume has to slow down eventually, but the Cardinals have adopted a pass-heavy approach because of how bad their running game has been in the second half of the season. It’s another good spot for Brissett on paper, as the Falcons are 15th in EPA allowed per dropback and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With Marvin Harrison Jr. expected back this week, Brissett has three elite weapons at his disposal.

Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL last week against the Chargers. We wish him a speedy recovery. For the rest of the way, Gardner Minshew ($4,500 DK / $6,500 FD) will be at the helm for the Chiefs. He’s excelled in spot starts throughout his career, so I feel better about him than the unknown quarterbacks drawing starts this week. He draws an excellent matchup against the Titans, who are 28th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

All of a sudden, the Bills have a chance to win the division (they still need some help), and Josh Allen ($7,200 DK / $9,000 FD) has a chance to win his second MVP in a row. He’ll need Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye to struggle in the last few weeks, but it’s certainly possible. A motivated Allen is all I need to roster him in DFS. This week, he squares off against the Browns. It’s far from a good matchup on paper (Cleveland is top 5 in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), but that should help keep his ownership low.

Tyler Shough ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) might actually be good. A strong finish to the season should secure his spot as the starting quarterback for the Saints next season. Over the last 3 games, Shough has put up 18, 22, and 19 fantasy points. He’s no longer a pure punt, but he’s still viable in all formats. He draws an elite matchup against the Saints, who are 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Bo Nix ($6,100 DK / $7,600 FD) squares off against the Jaguars, who have quietly had a tremendous season on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos have already locked up a playoff spot and can likely clinch the division with a win this week. Nix has averaged 20 fantasy points per game this season and is coming off a 32 fantasy points in a tough matchup against the Packers. I like Nix as a contrarian play this week, as Jacksonville has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew
💪 Strong Plays: Josh Allen, Tyler Shough
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Bo Nix
% Ownership Angle: Paying up at QB is a good way to be contrarian this week
🔗 Potential Pairings: Brissett + Wilson or McBride, Minshew + Worthy or Kelce
❤️‍🩹 Injuries to Monitor: N/A

Top Running Back Plays

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