Noto's Key Personnel: Week 2 - Monday Night Football

Editor’s Note: It’s being reported that Amari Cooper will play tonight

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.

Happy Monday everyone!

I hope Sunday treated you as well as it treated me. I made three lineups for the main slate and had one that finished in the top 1% of GPPs. I’m focusing more on contest selection this season and have decided to play a lot more small-field tournaments (5-200 entrants). I was able to finish first in a couple of them and have a nice day of DFS.

I also cashed my biggest bet of the week with the Eagles/Bills teaser, so we are feeling good heading into Monday night’s games. While I am on board with the double-header approach from the NFL, why on earth did they not stagger the games? We only have one hour between kickoffs. Someone out there, help me understand.

We didn’t want to leave our amazing RG premium members hanging, so we decided to bring you a lot of content for this two-game slate. This will essentially be the same article that I write for the main slate, just an abbreviated version of it since there’s not as much to talk about. Let’s dive into the positions.

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 2 MNF

Quarterback

We only have four quarterbacks to choose from tonight, so I will start with my favorite and work down to my least favorite. Derek Carr has been known as a high-floor, low-ceiling quarterback in DFS over the last few seasons, but he threw for over 300 yards in the opener against the Titans. Some of that was due to the pass-funnel nature of the matchup, but that was only his fifth time throwing over 300 yards in his last three seasons. He looked good in his first start with the Saints and now gets to face the Panthers, who are still a young and inexperienced defense. They played well against Desmond Ridder, but so could you and I (kidding, of course).

We go from a quarterback that played well in Week 1 to a quarterback that looked lost in Week 1. Kenny Pickett was the star of the preseason, but the Niners handed him a dose of reality last Sunday. He was consistently under pressure and ended the game with more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1). He also had one of the worst passer ratings in Week 1. He’ll have his hands full again this week with the Browns talented defensive line, but we have to expect a better performance from Pittsburgh’s offensive line. The absence of Diontae Johnson may not help Pickett’s projection, but it does help when it comes to stacking him in DFS.

If you look at any set of projections or at the Consensus Value Rankings for tonight, you’ll see that I’m a lot lower on Deshaun Watson than the field. His 45 rushing yards and a score saved his Week 1 performance, but he continued to struggle in the passing game and with his decision making. This week he has to go on the road to face an angry divisional opponent with a very good defense. On top of that, he’ll be without his favorite target in Amari Cooper. I have more interest in the Steelers defense than I do in Watson tonight.

I don’t have a strong take on Bryce Young. He’s a rookie quarterback that’s making his second career start and he doesn’t have a great supporting cast.

Running Back

Let’s start the running back position with the situation in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara is still suspended and Kendre Miller was forced to miss Week 1’s game with a hamstring injury. He was limited in practice on Friday and is shaping up to be a game-time decision. In his absence last week, the usage for Jamaal Williams was tremendous. He played on 75% of the snaps and handled 95% of the running back touches. Personally, I can forgive him for a bad performance given the fact that he was facing the Titans (who just shut down Joshua Kelley in Week 2). If Miller is out, I’ll go right back to Williams as the best point-per-dollar running back on the board.

After the departure of Kareem Hunt, everyone was excited to see Nick Chubb in a new three-down role. While he looked great against the Bengals in Week 1, his role did not change from last season. He only played on 49% of the snaps, but you knew where the ball was going when he was on the field. He finished the game with 106 rushing yards and added four receptions for 21 yards. I’m hesitant to trust the sustainability of him being heavily involved in the passing game, as he only ran a route of 26% of Watson’s drop-backs. Chubb is a solid option in all formats tonight, but there’s certainly a path for him to fail if he doesn’t top 100 yards or score a touchdown.

Your interest in Miles Sanders should hinge on how you think this game against the Saints plays out. He out-touched Chuba Hubbard 18-to-9 in Week 1, but didn’t play on a single third down. If you think this game stays close throughout, Sanders should be considered in all formats. If you are playing the blowout narrative in favor of New Orleans, Hubbard could be an interesting large-field tournament target. We should certainly be encouraged by the fact that Young threw 15 passes to his running backs in Week 1.

The Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split is going to be a frustrating one all season. Harris narrowly led the way in snaps and touches in Week 1, but it’s going to be close to a 60/40 split when they are both healthy. And we’ve seen Mike Tomlin ride the hot hand between these two in the past, which makes predicting usage even more difficult. The Browns did a nice job of bottling up Joe Mixon in Week 1, but I put that on the Bengals more than the Browns. In the past couple of seasons, this has been a run-funnel defense. If you can pick the right player in this backfield, it could pay large dividends on this slate.

Wide Receiver

Naturally, the wide receiver position is the one that most often makes or breaks these small slates. There are more options, which means there are more ways to get different from the field. Let’s start with one of the most chalky players on the slate in George Pickens. He has an endless highlight reel of great catches in his career, but often doesn’t create the separation that many look for when debating a receiver’s skill. Personally, I look at a player’s ability to earn targets, and he should get plenty of them from Pickett in this game. Diontae Johnson has been ruled out, which means Pickens will be the clear WR1 for the Steelers.

Allen Robinson (yes, he’s still in the league) will start opposite Pickens and rookie Calvin Austin will play in three-receiver sets. They each saw five targets after Johnson went down with his injury in Week 1, so they could be nice contrarian targets against the Browns. Given the fact that Robinson should run most of his routes from the slot, he might get a lot of targets given the Browns’ ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Perhaps he’s the best way to get different on this short slate.

We also have a key injury on the other side of this game, as Amari Cooper is going to miss tonight’s game. He has been the go-to wideout for Watson since he joined the Browns, so a good chunk of targets should open up for his teammates. Elijah Moore currently projects to be one of the highest-owned plays of the slate, but when has chalk Moore ever worked out? I’m not saying he’s a bad play at the price, but he might be a bad tournament play at the ownership. The most receiving yards that he’s had since the start of last season is 61, so he’s far from a free square.

Personally, I prefer Donovan Peoples-Jones over Moore, especially in tournaments. He runs deeper routes and lines up on the outside, which means he should draw coverage from Patrick Peterson, who was dusted by Brandon Aiyuk in Week 1. DPJ could see a similar target share as Moore and will certainly have a higher aDOT. Marquise Goodwin and David Bell will also see some snaps for Cleveland, but they are fairly easy fades this evening.

Note: Amari Cooper may end up playing tonight. If he does, he could be limited and at the same time, could cut into the target shades of DPJ and Moore. If Cooper is active, I will be avoiding all Browns receivers in cash and small-field GPPs.

Chris Olave is one of the easier clicks to make on tonight’s slate. He wasted no time getting used to his new quarterback, catching eight passes for 112 yards in the opener against the Titans. He’s going to be in for a big sophomore season, and the fact that he gets a mix of short and deep targets makes him one of the more reliable plays on the board. I should also note that the Panthers will be without their top cornerback, Jaycee Horne. Rashid Shaheed is a deep threat each and every week, while Michael Thomas should man the slot and provide a high floor. Olave is my preferred choice, but all three Saints’ wideouts are viable tonight.

We should keep an eye on the availability of D.J. Chark, who missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. He’s shaping up to be a game-time decision. If active, he becomes an intriguing large-field tournament play at low ownership. If he’s out again, Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo would be the biggest beneficiaries. We would also see more snaps for Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault. My hope is that Chark is active and that I don’t have to worry too much about who to roster from Carolina.

Tight End

If you have strong conviction about one of these tight ends, you should run with it on this two-game slate. At the moment, all four of the starting tight ends are projected to score between 7.5 and 9.3 fantasy points and they are all projected for ownership between 18% and 35%. David Njoku and Pat Freiermuth could both see higher target shares due to injuries to key receivers, while Hayden Hurst saw very encouraging usage in Week 1. He caught 5-of-7 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. And finally, we have Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill on the Saints. For whatever reason, Hill’s best performances seem to come in primetime games, so I wouldn’t be too quick to cross him out tonight.

Ultimately, I don’t have a strong take at this position and don’t want to steer you in the wrong direction. I’ll likely have pretty even exposure to the tight ends on this slate.

Defense

I’ll keep my defense rant short and simple. My favorite play is the Steelers. They were embarrassed at home last week and now get to take their frustration out on Deshaun Watson and the Browns. If they can bottle up Nick Chubb (which is a big if), they should have plenty of success when it comes to getting pressure on Watson. He takes a lot of sacks and he’s still struggling with his decision-making. He threw one pass right to a Bengals defender last week.

Good luck tonight, and we’ll see you back here for Week 3!

Image Credit: Getty Images