Noto's Key Personnel: Week 4
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
I’d love to come on here and take victory laps about the calls made in this article last week, but half of the viable player pool ended up having good fantasy outings. It was one of the highest scoring DFS weeks in recent memory. I had four lineups in play last week (three on DraftKings and one on FanDuel) and was able to cash in two of them. It wasn’t a great week, but it wasn’t a bad week.
After many years of playing DFS, I have found that building three-to-five lineups each week is my sweet spot in NFL. I have also found that I have a lot more success in single-entry and/or small-field contests. It’s tempting to chase the massive prize pools in some of these GPPs, but it never feels good having a top 2% lineup and barely doubling your entry fee. Personally, I’ve had much better ROI in tournaments that have less than 300 entrants.
I bring this up because I highly recommend finding out what works best for you. I have quite a few friends that play DFS that only enter the tournaments with 20,000+ people in them. They slowly bleed away their bankroll each week and often ask what they are doing wrong. Their lineups aren’t poorly constructed, but it’s tough to compete with that many people, especially when they are rolling out two or three lineups in 150-max contests. I tell them time and time again to focus on contest selection, but the big prizes continue to lure them in.
If you have time this week, think about your past results and what type of lineups you tend to build. If you are super contrarian by nature and like to fire 20+ lineups that are built properly, by all means, you should be entering the contests with huge payouts. If you are playing a cash game style lineup (more projections and value-based), you probably shouldn’t be in the Milly Maker, especially if you are only building a couple of lineups each week.
Think about it this way — you have a much better chance of a 10x on your entry fee in a 200-person field than in a 20,000-person field. Even if you have a really good lineup in the large-field tournament, you are likely only going to 2-3x your entry fee unless you hit the absolute nuts. I’m not saying that these big tournaments are bad or that you shouldn’t enter them, but make sure your lineups (both from a construction standpoint and from the number of lineups you play) fit the type of contest that you are entering.
I’m not sure who needed to read that rant, but hopefully it will spark something in a few of you. Now, let’s get to the Week 4 slate breakdown.
NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 4
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
I have two quarterbacks tagged this week in LineupHQ. One of more of a high floor/ceiling play and the other is strictly an upside play. Justin Herbert has had no issue putting up fantasy points this season (21, 25, and 32 DK points) and draws one of the best matchups on the slate. The Raiders do possess an above-average pass rush, but are very beatable on the backend (bottom four in both pass DVOA and pass EPA). The Chargers have had a top-10 pass-blocking unit so far, so hopefully they can keep Herbert upright. Mike Williams being out for the season is a blow to the offense, but it does narrow Herbert’s target tree, making it easier to build stacks with him.
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