Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 4
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
Am I the only one thinking, “How in the world is it Week 4 already?”
I hope the first three weeks have treated you well. I was close to a big cash in Week 3 but didn’t get enough from Kyler Murray and Devon Achane in the afternoon games. We are finally to the point of the season where we think we know these teams, but I wouldn’t be so sure. We’ve had one of the craziest starts to the season in recent memory (just look at any survivor pool) and scoring is down across the league. I expect more surprises are in store this week.
I have always tried to stay in shape as I’ve gotten older. I used to get most of my cardio through basketball, but I quit playing a handful of years ago after I had two friends tear their Achilles and another break his ankle. I’ve done a little running over the last few years but rarely more than a couple of miles at a time. At the start of the summer, I was at my friend’s barbeque and someone mentioned the idea of running a half marathon. I had always been very against paying someone else to run long distances, but everyone was on board. I love any opportunity to bond with friends and family, so I told them I’d train with them and see how it went.
Training was great at the start. We met up a few times a week and would run anywhere from 4-to-6 miles each time. We had a solid group of six and we’d all push each other to keep going and improve our times. We had a few other friends that would show up here and there. At this point, I thought we were going to have a group of around 10 people running this half marathon together, so I finally decided to sign up. Fast forward a few months, and it’s down to three of us. One friend shattered his ankle on a hike (a story for another day), another pulled his hamstring and hasn’t been the same since, another had an issue with his heart beating too fast, and the rest all called it quits. Getting old is fun!
The half marathon is this Saturday (it might have already happened by the time you are reading this). Due to the NFL season starting and a couple of trips in the last few weeks, my training has gone downhill. We decided to try an 8-mile (shoutout to Eminem) run on Monday to see how it would go and I am still sore a few days later. The goal on Saturday is to finish in under 2 hours, which is about a 9-minute, 16-second pace. Shoutout to all the real runners out there because this has been tougher than expected. That said, I am determined to reach my goal even if I can’t walk the next few days.
The point of this story is that maybe hard work pays off and even when it’s tough, you have to push through. If you are struggling with your DFS results, the only way to get better is to improve your process. Rather than focusing strictly on the plays that experts and projections recommend, try focusing on the reasoning behind the plays. Study the lineups of the top DFS players in the industry. Perhaps more importantly, take a hard look at your contest selection. Everyone wants to win the big prize pools out there, but very few are building lineups the correct way for those types of contests. Starting a few years ago, I focused solely on contests with less than 500 entrants because they fit my style of play.
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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 4
There are still a handful of injuries that we need to monitor leading up to lock, but it doesn’t look like there are going to be a ton of obvious value plays on this slate. Generally, I prefer slates where the pricing is tight and when you don’t necessarily love the look of your lineups. Slates like this force you into making tough decisions rather than having to choose between a bunch of good plays. As always, I will keep my Consensus Value Rankings and Expert Play Tags in LineupHQ updated through Sunday morning.
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Kyler Murray: $6,800 DK / $8,700 FD
Jayden Daniels: $6,500 DK
CJ Stroud: $7,800 FD
I have two quarterbacks tagged on each site this week, but there’s a real chance that I lock Kyler Murray into every lineup that I make. I rarely lock a player in NFL DFS, especially at the quarterback position. However, I love the spot for the Cardinals’ passing attack and think Murray is underpriced (especially on DraftKings). After the first three weeks of the season, the Commanders are 31st in PFF’s grades against the pass, 32nd in EPA against the pass, and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Cardinals are 1st in my pass potential metric in the NFL First Look, and the Commanders are 2nd. If both teams have success through the air, we should see higher play volume, and consequently, more fantasy production to go around. Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in each of the first three games of the season and should be able to shred this porous secondary. Trey McBride (concussion) not practicing this week would usually be a concern, but his absence would actually make stacking with Murray easier.
If I don’t have 100% exposure to Murray on DraftKings, I will have at least one lineup with Jayden Daniels. It’s hard to poke holes in this play. He just put together one of the best quarterback performances of the season and everyone saw him do it on Monday night. He now faces the Cardinals, who are 30th in PFF’s grades against the pass, 23rd in EPA against the pass, and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. His rushing ability (171 yards in the first three games) gives him a solid floor and Kliff Kingsbury finally has him taking shots down the field. Speaking of, this is a revenge game for the former Cardinals coach. I generally shy away from teams coming off a huge win and playing on a short week, but Daniels is too cheap given his upside.
If I don’t have 100% exposure to Murray on FanDuel, I will have at least one lineup with CJ Stroud. He’s coming off a bad outing against the Vikings where he threw for only 215 yards and 2 interceptions. We can forgive him for a single bad outing, especially since it was on the road against the #1 ranked defense. This week he draws a home matchup against the Jaguars, who gave up nearly 300 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to Josh Allen last week… in the first half (!!). The tough part with Stroud this season has been deciding which wideouts to stack him with, but it looks like Tank Dell is going to miss this game. This makes Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs excellent stacking partners with Stroud.
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