Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Wild Card Weekend (Saturday Slate)

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2026-01-09 01:21:40 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for the Wild Card Weekend Saturday slate, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy.

Welcome back to the Key Personnel!

It’s hard to believe, but the NFL playoffs are already here. And if you missed it, the year 2026 is already upon us. Wild times!

While my favorite slate this weekend is the full 6-game slate, the sites have decided to break up their contests into a 2-game main slate on Saturday, a 3-game main slate on Sunday, and a huge Showdown slate on Monday. There are still contests for the 6-game slate, but they aren’t as big as the other slates. For that reason, our content will follow what the slates are putting out. There will be a separate Key Personnel and Expert Survey for both the Saturday and Sunday slates. With that said, the Expert Consensus Rankings feature all of the games, so that’s your best piece of content to consume if you are focusing on the 6-game slate.

As is always the case with these short slates, late swap is extremely important. You don’t have to use it, but don’t forget that you can use it. I typically like to build a few lineups per slate, so it’s easy for me to gauge how they are doing after the first game is over. If a lineup gets off to a bad start, I’ll pivot away from the chalk in the late game. If a lineup gets off to a good start, I’ll happily eat the chalk in the late game. These are slates where I also like to get contrarian in the first game. We’ll know how those contrarian plays fare, so we can react and adjust before the second game starts.

As always, if there are any changes to my core plays, I will update my Expert Play tags in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Wild Card Weekend (Saturday Slate)

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Jordan Love ($5,300 DK / $7,400 FD) was injured in Week 16’s game against the Bears and hasn’t suited up since. While rust could be an issue, he’s still my favorite quarterback to target on this 2-game slate. When the Packers are pushed, Love offers plenty of upside. He’s had 5 games with more than 20 fantasy points in 2 games with more than 30 fantasy points this season. Other than Tucker Kraft, he should have all of his weapons against the Bears, who have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Caleb Williams ($5,600 DK / $7,800 FD) has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 5 straight games and arguably has the 2nd-highest floor at quarterback on this slate. He’s been excellent at home this season and draws a decent matchup against the Packers, who are 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Williams also offers some rushing upside, as he’s rushed for over 50 yards in 3 games this season.

Matthew Stafford ($6,900 DK / $8,300 FD) will have Davante Adams back in the lineup for the first time since Week 15. Despite the Rams limping to the finish line, he’s now the frontrunner to win MVP. The Rams had some terrible luck in their first meeting with the Panthers (a pick 6 and a pair of other turnovers), so don’t expect that to happen again. He has the highest floor of any quarterback, as he’s scored at least 22 fantasy points in 10 of his last 14 games. Carolina is 24th in EPA allowed per dropback.

Bryce Young ($5,000 DK / $6,900 FD) might have the toughest matchup of the quarterbacks on this slate, but he’s likely going to have the most favorable game script. Home underdog quarterbacks tend to pay off their DFS salaries more often than not, and the Panthers are 10.5-point underdogs this weekend. The Rams are 6th in EPA allowed per dropback this season, but Young threw for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns against them earlier this season.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Jordan Love
💪 Strong Plays: Caleb Williams, Matthew Stafford, Bryce Young
🔗 Potential Pairings: Love + Watson, Stafford + Nacua

Top Running Back Plays

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