Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 12
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 12
STACKS
PROJECTION — Eagles vs. Bills
The Eagles aren’t projecting as the stone cold nuts for the money, but Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are both the highest-projected players at their positions. The Eagles have the second-highest implied total on the slate (25.75) by more than a full point over the third-highest Jaguars. Yet, it’s the Jags who are popping as the top Opto% squad for DraftKings.
Speaking of Opto%, the Eagles are dominating our FanDuel models, but are also projected as ~20% owned for large-field multi-entry GPPs. 35-40% should be expected in single-entry contests, so that’s where we should take a pause.
“Do what thou wilt” is the whole of my law, but this is monstrous ownership we shouldn’t have to take. Stacks aren’t abundant on this slate, but we are DFStitute. There isn’t a ton of affordable leverage on this slate, so I struggle to find a way to mitigate this chalk on FanDuel.
But the Hurts-Brown stack should kick major ass. Hurts has three or more pass+rush TDs in three of his last four games. Brown is coming off of a nut-kicking dud, but he is averaging 9.6 targets per game on the season with a nearly career-high 13.1 aDOT. Both Hurts and Brown have 35-point ceilings. They’ll be highly owned, but – yeah – they might not be over-owned.
PIVOT – Chiefs at Raiders
The team with the highest total on the slate (26.75) will have single-digit ownership as a stack, and this boggles my mind more often than not with the Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce is Travis Kelce, and the Raiders are the Raiders. This is a fantastic spot despite the Chiefs offense not being the unstoppable force it has normally been in recent years and the Raiders pass defense actually not being terrible.
With that said, Mahomes is completing passes at basically a career-high rate (67.1%) – just at a low 6.9 IAY/PA – and has thrown 2, 2, 0, and 4 TD passes over their last four games. Kelce has seen at least eight targets in all but one game. Rashee Rice leads all Chiefs WRs with 46 targets. Justin Watson is free and leads the team with an 18.9 aDOT in 36 targets after 11 in their last game.
There are plenty of ways to go with the Chiefs because it’s unclear where Mahomes is gonna distribute the production. I like believing in the low-owned ceiling of Mahomes with almost whomever you wanna stack with him. And we don’t have to run it back with a Raider, as they’re 10.0-point dogs with a 16.75 implied total against a staunch Chiefs defense.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
