Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 13
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 12
STACKS
DOLPHINS STACKS — Dolphins at Commanders
The Dolphins have the most yards per play by far (6.9) and the most passing YPG (285.3). They face a Commanders squad allowing the third-most yards per play (5.9) and the third-most passing YPG (264.6).
This is great offense against terrible defense.
Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are gonna be megachalk on FanDuel. They both project really well, but they are expensive. On DraftKings, the stack could be in the single-digits because the field will largely try to save money on the Broncos or 49ers.
There is blowout risk that we shouldn’t ignore, but my approach is that they get to the blowout by Tagovailoa and Hill breaking the slate.
The obvious way to get different is to stack Tagovailoa with the ~5% Jaylen Waddle. The opportunity cost is strong when we’re talking about not playing Hill, but we can also double stack and throw the blowout caution to the wind.
We can one-off Hill because his ceiling is through the roof, but his ownership is such that we should be stacking him. If we don’t stack the Dolphins, we should buy into the running game or one-off Waddle. We don’t have to stack the Dolphins, but we shouldn’t fade them at all.
CHALK – Broncos at Texans (DK), Texans vs. Broncos (FD), and Eagles vs. 49ers (FD)
Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy are all very cheap and project very well on DraftKings, so the field is gonna flock toward them against a Texans bunch that participates in shootouts on the regular. We’re looking at mid-high teens in ownership on them in large-field MME contests, so expecting 25% isn’t crazy.
I hate the terms “good chalk” and “bad chalk,” and this isn’t bad chalk. I just find it weird because I’m struggling to wrap my head around a world where Wilson doesn’t suck. At 10% ownership, I’d be writing him up as a strong play. On FD, the stack is lower-owned, but the QB prices are tighter over there. The point is that I can’t endorse this chalk.
Wilson has topped 20 DK points only once all season – in Week 2. And it isn’t just TD luck. Wilson also hasn’t topped 250 yards in eight of 11 weeks.
Sutton is gonna be highly owned, but he’s fine to play. I’d be more interested in Jeudy because of his talents, but he isn’t getting the volume. Sutton is so cheap and has double-digit target upside.
Where Sutton is most interesting is as a run-back to the Texans stack. C.J. Stroud is checking all of the boxes – high yardage, high TDs, low turnovers, home favorite. The Broncos defense isn’t horrible, but their offense is so bad that the Texans should have the time of possession edge.
Stroud to Tank Dell is the obvious stack. Stroud and Dell are finally priced up, but maybe still not enough. Stroud has thrown for 304, 336, 356, and 470 yards in his last four games, while Dell has seen 8, 10, 14, and 11 targets in those games. There’s no sign of this train slowing down.
The stack whose ownership of which I’m baffled is the Eagles. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are looking to be highly owned, but they could be the ones left in the cold as the field flocks toward the savings of the Broncos and 49ers on DraftKings and the projections of the Dolphins and Texans on FanDuel. The 49ers are a tough defense, but we shouldn’t be too sure that that matters if the Eagles are gonna go underowned. The talent here is too much to completely ignore because of the matchup. We have to like that they’re slight home dogs.
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